Missouri Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/16/24

The battle of Columbias will take place in South Carolina on Saturday afternoon when the Missouri Tigers (7-2) face-off against the Gamecocks (6-3) at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Tigers managed to beat Oklahoma last week at home thanks to a chaotic 4th quarter that saw 34 points combined, which was a nice rebound from their 34-0 loss at Alabama prior to their Week 10 bye. Meanwhile, South Carolina has been on a roll since their disappointing 2-point loss at Alabama in Week 7. The Gamecocks are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games with an average margin of victory of 23.67 points, improving their season ATS record to 7-2. 

Missouri has won and covered in 5 straight meetings against South Carolina, but it’s going to be difficult for the Tigers to reach a 6th consecutive victory in this series. They are unlikely to have starting quarterback Brady Cook in this game, and they will be without their starting center as well. That does not bode well for the Missouri offense against what is arguably the best defensive front in the country. The Gamecocks are top 12 in scoring and total defense this season, as well as 3rd in sacks and 14th in tackles for loss. Furthermore, the Gamecocks front 7 leads the country in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 6, while the defensive unit as a whole is top 25 in PPA, stuff rate, line yards and points per opportunity in that time. Simply put, it’s hard to trust the Missouri offense with a backup quarterback and backup center leading the charge against this defensive front, especially when you consider how poor the Tigers looked offensively against Alabama and Texas A&M – 2 defenses that are somewhat comparable to South Carolina when it comes to limiting scoring and finishing drives.

South Carolina’s offense is predicated on the run, which makes this a plus-matchup for the Gamecocks. Missouri’s run defense ranks 54th in PPA, 70th in success rate and 95th in explosiveness outside of garbage time since early October. Furthermore, the Tigers are outside the top 70 in stuff rate and line yards in the last 6 weeks. South Carolina running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, who comes into this game off consecutive performances in which he rushed for at least 125 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to at least 50 receiving yards, should have a field day against this defensive front. This is a massive number to lay against a team that has had South Carolina’s number in recent seasons, but Missouri’s offensive injuries are going to be tough to overcome against the Gamecock front 7. Look for South Carolina to exact revenge on Missouri in its final SEC home game this season, and for the Gamecocks to win by margin via strong performances in the ground game and on the defensive side of the ball.

Missouri vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -13.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -14.5.

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