Michigan Wolverines vs Washington Huskies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 10/05/24

Both of these teams are coming off very different results, but the market wasn’t fooled by what we just saw a week ago. Following an impressive win against USC, the Michigan Wolverines defeated Minnesota 27-24 as double-digit favorites at home. That wasn’t exactly the most impressive result, and it gets even less impressive when diving into the box score, as the Gophers out-gained Michigan by 55 yards, held the Wolverines to just 4.0 yards per play and allowed only 6 points in the second half. Furthermore, the Gophers successfully recovered an onside kick to get the ball back down 3 points in the final 2 minutes of the 4th quarter, before the play was called back due to an incorrect flag on Minnesota (which was later confirmed by the conference officials). It goes without saying that the Wolverines were pretty fortunate to win that game in regulation while failing to register 100 passing yards for the second consecutive week. The same can’t be said for Washington, as the Huskies tallied 521 yards of offense, registered 8.0 yards per play and out-gained Rutgers by well over 200 yards in a 21-18 loss on the road last Friday. Untimely penalties and multiple missed field goals ultimately did Washington in against the Scarlet Knights, which is why I’m comfortable backing the Huskies at home in an excellent spot this week.

I’m lower than the market on Michigan and Washington has outpaced my preseason expectations for this Huskies team, so I was hoping for anything under 3 in this game and that’s exactly what we got. Michigan’s offense has been a major issue this season, and while it should still see plenty of success on the ground, I don’t expect UM to completely dominate the game with its rushing attack the way it would against an inferior opponent. Washington’s defense is 7th in opponent success rate, 6th in passing success rate and 25th in rushing success rate, which is certainly a surprise considering what the team lost from a season ago. The Huskies will also have the advantage of knowing what’s coming, seeing as Michigan quarterback Alex Orji has hardly showed the ability to throw the forward pass to this point. As for the Washington offense, it is led by quarterback Will Rogers — who won’t be intimidated in a conference game of this magnitude. Washington is a top-10 passing offense, and we just saw Miller Moss and USC move the ball at will against this Michigan defense throughout the second half of their game in Ann Arbor. I have confidence in Jedd Fisch’s offensive game plan for this spot, and as long as Rogers plays a clean game, this offense should do enough to cause problems for Wink Martidale’s defense. Lastly, while these 2 programs are in completely different positions than a season ago, this is still a massive revenge spot from last year’s National Championship game — and it is being played in front of what should be a raucous crowd in Seattle. Let’s back the Huskies on the money line to exact a bit of sweet revenge at home.

Michigan vs Washington prediction: Washington ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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This isn’t pretty, but I think this number has just come down too far given what these teams are capable of producing. Washington’s offense only tallied 18 points a week ago, but the box score speaks for itself; the Huskies should have scored closer to 30 points on the road against a Rutgers defense that is one of the better units in the Big Ten. Rogers and company will likely be able to move the ball and pull from USC’s performance at the Big House a few weeks ago, and I could certainly see Washington getting to 24 points on Saturday.

As for Michigan, if the Wolverines are to be successful and win this game, they’ll likely have dominated the game on the ground and busted a few explosive plays in the run game (usually with the speed of Donovan Edwards). Both of these teams should be hovering around 20 points by the time we reach the latter stages of the 4th quarter, and there’s no weather in the forecast that could potentially deter us. Let’s take the Over 41 for my game totals pick.

Michigan vs Washington prediction: Over 41 (-107) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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