Michigan Wolverines vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/30/24

It’s rivalry week in college football, which means the Michigan Wolverines (6-5) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) will meet at noon on Saturday from the Horseshoe in Columbus. The Wolverines have won outright and against the spread in 3 consecutive meetings with the Buckeyes, which is tied for Michigan’s longest winning streak in this rivalry series since 1995-1997. Michigan may not be in the College Football Playoff discussion this season, but Ohio State very much is – and the Buckeyes cannot afford a home loss to a 6-5 team no matter who it is. 

Michigan is going to throw everything it has at Ohio State in this matchup. The Wolverines had their best offensive showing of the season last week against Northwestern, but the Wildcats are nowhere near the defensive talent as the Buckeyes – who are 1st nationally in defensive PPA and points per opportunity allowed outside of garbage time since Week 8. Furthermore, the Buckeyes defense has been the epitome of “bend but don’t break,” as it gives up a touchdown on just 36% of opposing red zone trips – which also leads the nation. The Wolverines will likely have difficulty getting the ball into scoring range much less actually scoring, especially given their offensive one-dimensionality. Michigan’s offensive strength is its running game, and Ohio State is 3rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per game with top 50 marks in advanced rushing metrics like opposing rush PPA, success rate and explosiveness outside of garbage time since the middle of October. It would behoove the Wolverines to attack this Ohio State defense through the air, but that’s not a strength of Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines rank 128th in passing yards per game this season, and in the last 6 weeks, they are 99th in pass PPA and 131st in pass explosiveness.

All of the Buckeyes’ goals are still in front of them, and while this is a massive number for a rivalry game, I don’t expect them to let up at any point. Look for a fired-up Ohio State squad to exact revenge on Michigan in The Game on Saturday, earning a Big Ten Championship berth for the first time since 2020. 

Michigan vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -21. 

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