Michigan Wolverines vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/09/24

For those paying attention over the summer, the Indiana Hoosiers to clear 5.5 wins was one of my favorite win total bets of the season. A few months later, and the Hoosiers have been one of the biggest surprises of the college football season thus far — surpassing even my lofty expectations for what this team could be in head coach Curt Cignetti’s first year as the head coach. All the Hoosiers have done is dominate opponents every week and consistently execute at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball. It’s no wonder that Indiana is 9-0 against the spread this season, good for the best ATS record in the nation. The Hoosiers should keep on rolling against Michigan this week, especially since quarterback Kurtis Rourke has gotten the chance to work out the kinks last week in his first game back under center since suffering a minor thumb injury and missing a game. This Indiana offense has been nothing short of sensational, ranking 1st in success rate nationally, 2nd in EPA per dropback, 2nd in Early Downs EPA and 1st in net points per drive (College Football Insiders). The system in place and the skill position talent on this team gives Indiana a solid floor for its offensive production, but the ceiling of this group is considerably higher with Rourke under center. All of the Hoosiers goals are still in front of them, and I expect them to play with purpose and aggression against a Michigan team that could be in position for a bit of a letdown spot following last week’s effort against #1 Oregon at the Big House.

As for the Wolverines, it’s been a very difficult season for Sherrone Moore’s group, particularly on offense. Michigan’s quarterback carousel has not yielded positive results, and even though the Wolverines have shown a bit of a pulse with Davis Warren at QB over the past couple of weeks, they are still getting dominated in the box score in games against the upper echelon of the Big Ten (or even Texas in the non-conference portion of the schedule). Michigan’s consistent struggles to throw the ball should be cause for concern against an Indiana defense that is elite on early downs, top 10 in net points per drive and a top 20 unit against the run. The Wolverines should expect to see plenty of heavy boxes in this game, but if Warren is unable to find tight end Colston Loveland consistently, it could put this offense in consistent 3rd-and-long situations. Ultimately, I think it could be extremely tough for Michigan to string together consistent scoring drives and Indiana likely won’t take its foot off the gas in this one. Therefore, I’ll take the Hoosiers and lay the points in Bloomington.

Michigan vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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