Miami Hurricanes vs California Golden Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/24

Prior to the season I had this spot circled as one where we could fade Miami and back a California team that I was certainly higher on than the market. That hasn’t changed through the first 5 weeks, and this sets up to be a dream situational spot of the week for the Bears following their bye week. College Gameday will be in attendance for this matchup and the eyes of the nation will be on a Miami team that is coming off a miraculous victory over Virginia Tech last Friday and now squares off against a California side that is fully rested and ready for this massive home game in the national spotlight. The Bears have been playing inspired football this season, having already knocked off Auburn as almost 2-touchdown underdogs back in Week 2. California also dominated the box score against Florida State in Tallahassee a few weeks ago but struggled mightily with executing in the red zone — which proved to be costly in a 5-point loss.

While California’s offense is pretty average by FBS standards, what the Bears do well is defend — particularly against the pass. In fact, the Bears rank 9th in passing success rate and 7th in early downs EPA per College Football Insiders. This is also a unit that ranks 11th in points allowed per quality possession, as the Bears typically hold their ground once their opponent crosses midfield. That’s exactly what you need as a defense against Cam Ward and this high-flying Miami passing attack that — while explosive — can be prone to turnovers (as we saw against Virginia Tech). Miami will certainly get its points, but the Bears defense is top 20 in points per drive, so limiting the Hurricanes to field goals instead of touchdowns is certainly possible at key moments in the game. Additionally, the Hurricanes did show some vulnerability on the defensive side of the ball against the Hokies — particularly against the run. If the Bears want to keep this game within single-digits, they will likely need to keep the ball on the ground and shorten the game — which would limit possessions for the Miami offense on the other side. Lastly, head coach Justin Wilcox is absolutely fantastic in this spot, as he’s 22-9 against the spread as an underdog of at least a touchdown, with an average point spread margin in those games of +6.95 points. I’ll trust the coach and the spot in this one and take California +10.5 as my best bet for this game.

Miami vs California prediction: California +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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