Maryland Terrapins vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/30/24

Even though this line has ticked up a few points, I still think we’re getting a bit of value with the favorite in this Big Ten matchup. Over the last few weeks, I’ve repeatedly highlighted that the teams that are inside the top half of the College Football Playoff rankings don’t need to do anything other than win, and the rest will sort itself out. For a team like Penn State, style points don’t necessarily matter in this weekend’s game against Maryland, just win and the Nittany Lions are safely into the 12-team playoff field. With that said, there’s just something to be said for James Franklin and his historical dominance against Maryland in his time as the head coach at Penn State. Not only has Franklin been exceptional as a double-digit favorite (45-27-2 ATS), he has been particularly outstanding against Maryland. In fact, Penn State has dispatched the Terrapins in 7 of the last 8 seasons, with 6 of those victories coming by at least 24 points. Much has been made of the fact that Franklin might have a few personal past grievances with the Maryland program, and that’s certainly showed up on the field in this series.

As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since a loss to Ohio State earlier this month, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). The Nittany Lions should bounce back from an inconsistent effort a week ago against a Maryland defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed, 82nd in Early Downs EPA and 86th in net points per drive for the season. The Terrapins have dropped 4 straight games and have nothing really to play for at this point in this season. They’re also pretty banged up on offense, particularly at quarterback, as Billy Edwards suffered a thumb injury in last week’s loss at home to Iowa. If Edwards is unable to go, the Penn State defense should hold a massive advantage over backup quarterback MJ Morris, but it’s not as if a limited version of Edwards is going to be that much of an improvement for a Terrapins offense that is 91st in success rate on the year. Let’s back Franklin and the Nittany Lions to roll through Maryland and close out the regular season on a high note.

Maryland vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -24 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number,

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