Maryland Terrapins vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/09/24

Autzen Stadium hosts another Big Ten battle this week, and the Ducks should roll at home in this one, albeit in a lower-scoring contest than oddsmakers are projecting on Saturday. Maryland is having a difficult season on both sides of the ball, and I don’t expect the Terrapins offense (77th in success rate, 70th in net points per drive) to see much success against an Oregon defense that is a top 10 unit against the pass and top 20 in 3rd and 4th down success rate. Oregon’s defensive front is also getting healthier with each passing week, so it’ll be hard for the Terps to generate consistent success on the ground as well. On the other side, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is playing some of his best football of the season over the last month, which has put him squarely in the Heisman Trophy conversation. Additionally, the running back duo of Jordan James and Noah Whittington are running well behind an offensive line who’s emergence has completely unlocked this elite Oregon offense in Big Ten play. However, there have been multiple instances this season where the Ducks have beaten opponents without truly running up the score. Therefore, with a fairly high total set for this game, there are plenty of avenues for the under to cash.

While the Ducks should come out with a terrific script in the first half, ready to take advantage of a Maryland defense that is 92nd in passing success rate and generate some explosive plays through the air. However, we can expect a heavy dose of the ground game in the second half, as the Ducks look to salt the game away and advance to the next week with an unblemished record. As we’ve seen in previous Big Ten games this season, Oregon has shown that it is more than happy to run the ball and march methodically down the field. There is a real possibility for Dan Lanning’s to win by a comfortable margin while still going under this total, and given the uncertainty with the forecast on Saturday, that is the only way I can look in this matchup.

Maryland vs Oregon prediction: Under 58 available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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