LSU Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/19/24

I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for the majority of this season, and while things haven’t been perfect thus far, the Razorbacks are starting to look like the top 25-30 team that I thought they could be at the start of the campaign. This week, the Hogs have a tremendous situational spot on their hands, as Sam Pittman’s team is coming off a bye and will get to host an LSU team that just picked up one of its best wins in the Brian Kelly era with an improbable overtime victory over Ole Miss in Death Valley. However, once you dig into the box score a bit and parse through the numbers, it’s clear that LSU probably shouldn’t have won this game and Ole Miss really gave away a much-needed victory on the road. In fact, out of all of the games last weekend, this game featured the biggest net success rate discrepancy for a team that ultimately lost, per College Football Insiders. That indicates that LSU’s offense has issues (67th in rushing success rate, 47th in points per quality possession), despite the talent that the Tigers have at the skill positions, along with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.

On the other side, this Arkansas team could easily be 6-0 on the season, having blown late leads in games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M in September. Arkansas’ offense features a rock solid unit on the ground (25th in EPA per rush, 28th in rushing success rate), and quarterback Taylen Green has proven to be a dual threat weapon that opposing defenses in the SEC have struggled with. What’s even more encouraging is that the Hogs are playing some of their best football of the season defensively, especially coming off a performance against Tennessee where they held the Vols’ vaunted offense to just 156 passing yards in a massive upset victory over Josh Heupel’s team. The way to beat this Arkansas defense is on the ground, but LSU doesn’t run the ball very well at all, with metrics that signify this rushing attack as being much closer to the national average than what the Tigers’ highly-rated offensive line would suggest. If the Razorbacks are able to get the Tigers in 3rd and long situations, that should allow their talented group of pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after quarterback Nussmeier, who was running for his life against Ole Miss a week ago.

Ultimately, this is an excellent home underdog spot for a coach in Pittman that has thrived in this role during his tenure in Fayetteville. Let’s take the Hogs to keep this one within a field goal, and potentially even win the game outright.

LSU vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas +3 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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