Louisville Cardinals vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/24

The Louisville Cardinals head to South Bend, and we have your Louisville Cardinals vs Norte Dame Fighting Irish prediction. The Irish need a win against a good opponent after dropping one to Northern Illinois, and there might not be anyone better on their schedule than Louisville. For me, I think this Louisville team is really good, and the national audience just hasn’t caught up yet. You can also count on the majority of the money coming down on Notre Dame, which helps give you a favorable number if you like the Cardinals, as I do. This is an elite defense and a talented offense, and they can give Notre Dame some real trouble. Keep in mind, Louisville upended the Irish last year. I don’t know if they can win in South Bend, but don’t write off Louisville too quickly. My Louisville vs Notre Dame prediction is the Cardinals to cover +6.5.

I think this game is a tough matchup for the Irish. For all the talk of Riley Leonard, this is still a very one-dimensional, run-heavy offense. The offensive line is very young, even if ultra talented, and they depend on the running game to carry them. The problem is that Louisville is an elite run-stopping defense. Their pass defense is strong too, but they are especially formidable against the run. That seems like a problem for the Irish. On the other side, Tyler Shough is a good QB who is more than competent to the task. I don’t expect the Cardinals to march up and down the field by any means, because the Notre Dame defense is also no joke. But this is a Louisville team that can compete in a lot of different ways, and they seem like a sneaky team that is a matchup problem for the Irish. I think this is a win-no-cover situation for the Irish.

Louisville Cardinals vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction: Louisville +6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line opened around 48, and it has continued to drop throughout the week. I am not sure what the tipping point is in the other direction, but I do think the line movement is correct so far. This should be a low-scoring grind of a game. We have several factors to consider. One factor is the weather. While much of the country is dealing with rainy conditions, it looks like this game has a good chance to play in clear-ish weather. It might be a little bit cool, but the wind might be a real factor. Windy conditions mean difficulty throwing and a reliance upon the run game, and the run game means bleeding the clock.

If we get a run-heavy game script for both teams, it most importantly means that each offense will be playing into the strength of the opposing defense. That is good for an under. That said, we are to the point now that a 24-21 result won’t win for us. That does not leave us a lot of margin for error. My advice is to tread cautiously with this point total, unless you were able to grab it earlier in the week. You might consider an alt line too. But if you are playing just the total here, my Louisville vs Notre Dame pick is the under, trusting in the top-tier defenses for both teams.

Louisville vs Notre Dame Prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.