Kentucky Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

As we head down the home stretch of the college football season, Kentucky travels to Austin for a game that means little to Kentucky but a lot to Texas. My Kentucky Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns prediction starts with context and motivation. Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the SEC, and they would need to win their final two games against Texas and Louisville to reach bowl eligibility. Basically, the Cats are done. For Texas, the path to the playoffs is a clear one, and clearer for the Longhorns than for anyone else in the conference: win what should be an easy game against Kentucky at home, and then beat the rival Aggies. Texas has taken some criticism lately for quality of opponents, so we might see them trying to win big this week. Still, I think the best bet in this game is the under, which currently sits at 47.

Look, the Wildcats are just really bad on offense. Against SEC opponents, 20 is their highest scoring output, and they have consistently struggled against good defenses. They should find the Horns to be very inhospitable. On the other side, while the Texas offense is really dangerous and scores easily against most opponents, Kentucky hangs their hat on their defense. I’m not calling for the upset by any means, but Kentucky is certainly capable of keeping Texas off the scoreboard, at least better than most. I am taking the under on this game for 2 reasons: first, I have no faith in Kentucky to pull their own weight here, and second, the Wildcat defense should be good enough to keep Texas from covering this number all by themselves. I think there is very little chance that Kentucky can score enough to turn this into an up-and-down affair, and unless the Longhorns are just aiming for style points, this game should stay under. And, should Kentucky manage to hang around and threaten the upset, it would be because the game is in the 20-17 range. Give me the total under 47.

Kentucky vs Texas Prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.