Kentucky Wildcats vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/24

After dropping 2 games in a row to SEC opponents, the Kentucky Wildcats got back into the win column with a 41-6 victory over the Ohio Bobcats last week. The Wildcats out-gained the Bobcats 488-223 and won the time of possession battle by more than 7 minutes, but the level of difficulty will ramp up this week when they travel to Oxford, Mississippi to play the Rebels. Ole Miss is currently 4-0 SU and ATS after sweeping one of, if not the easiest non-conference schedule for a power program this year. Albeit the light schedule, the Rebels have been very convincing in each of their wins and the underlying metrics back that up. They are 1st nationally in offensive PPA and total scoring opportunities in non-garbage time, and their defense holds opponents to just 1.6 points per trip inside the 40-yard line and 34.5 rushing yards per game. Going a step further, the Rebels defense leads the country in opposing rush ppa, rush success rate and line yards in tandem with top 10 marks in stuff rate, havoc generated and power success. In other words, the Rebels are very good in the trenches and it has been nearly impossible for any of their non-conference opponents to generate a reliable ground game against them — which is not a good omen for Kentucky.

As a team with a top-20 rush rate, the Wildcats averaged just 3.4 yards per carry combined against the 2 conference opponents they played to this point and scored just 18 combined points in those 2 games because of it. The Kentucky offensive line has not helped the situation either, as it ranks 70th in PFF’s run-blocking grade and allows havoc at a bottom 35 rate nationally. With an ineffective run game, a lot of added pressure will be put on quarterback Brock Vandagriff — who has 6 turnover-worthy plays despite just 2 interceptions and is bottom 6 in the SEC in completion percentage among 21 qualified quarterbacks. Ole Miss’s Jaxson Dart, on the other hand, leads the SEC in completion percentage and leads the country in PFF’s passing grade with 11 big time throws to just 3 turnover-worthy plays. Dart throws to 3-headed monster in Tre Harris, Antwane Wells Jr and Cayden Lee that already has more than 1,100 receiving yards and 9 combined touchdowns, and is accompanied by an equally deep rushing attack with 3 of its top 4 running backs averaging at least 6.7 yards per carry. I realize the Rebs haven’t played anyone yet, but head coach Lane Kiffin will ensure his team knows just how close Kentucky was to beating Georgia. If given the opportunity, I feel confident that Kiffin would want to run up the score to prove a point in the playoff race. As such, I’m laying it with Ole Miss.

Kentucky vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss -17 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18.

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