Kansas State Wildcats vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/24

The Kansas State Wildcats take on the BYU Cougars in Provo in a newly-minted Big 12 matchup. The Wildcats currently have the second-best odds to win the Big 12 behind Utah on DraftKings at +350. That is their expectation for the season and with the conference adding some new teams in the offseason, winning the Big 12 has gotten much tougher. They still have a ranked matchup against Oklahoma State next week, and three rivalry games against Colorado, Kansas, and Iowa State to come. Kansas State needs to recognize this as a tricky spot on the road before they play a ranked opponent next week. BYU needs to capitalize on this opportunity at home, late at night, against a ranked opponent. The Cougars are 3-0 but like Kansas State have not played a conference opponent and only one Power 5 team. 

Both of these teams have looked good defensively. Kansas State allows on average only 13.3 points and 316.3 yards per game, while BYU has allowed on average only 14 points per game and 236.3 yards per game. Again, both of these teams’ early-season opponents might sway these numbers from a solid data point but these are still impressive numbers. Offensively it is much of the same story with both teams having similar numbers around 33 points and 426 yards per game. You could make an argument that Kansas State has a better Power 5 win, Arizona, than BYU who beat SMU. Other than that, the only difference between these teams on paper is expectations. Kansas State is the favorite to win the Big 12 and have College Football Playoff aspirations, while BYU has the second worst odds to win the conference and a preseason win total of 4.5 wins. BYU has exceeded expectations so far this year and this game will be a good test of how good they actually are. Despite being 3-0 it could be argued that Kansas State has disappointed early this season. They scraped by against a good Tulane team and are 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games. BYU is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games and with this being a home game at night, with a Kansas State team focused on next week’s matchup, I like the Cougars to cover the spread. 

BYU +6.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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