Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

The biggest game on this weekend’s slate takes us to Big Ten country, where the Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers in an extremely consequential game for both conference title and College Football Playoff positioning. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in the sport this season, and Curt Cignetti’s team is on the precipice of an undefeated campaign after being picked to finish in the bottom 5 of the conference standings in the preseason media polls. The job that Cignetti has done can’t be understated and Indiana looks to be playoff bound in a remarkable program turnaround. However, I do think this incredible story comes to a bit of a halt in Columbus on Saturday, at least for the time being.

Indiana’s offense has been a machine all season long (1st in success rate, 2nd in EPA per dropback, 3rd in Early Downs EPA), but this will be the best defense that the Hoosiers have faced to this point. We just saw quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers passing offense struggle against Michigan, and with respect to the Wolverines, that unit pales in comparison to what they’ll see on Saturday. Ohio State’s defense is one of the most talented and experienced groups in the country, and the metrics certainly speak for themselves, as the Buckeyes are 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in EPA margin and 1st in points per drive. This unit has continued to improve since the loss to Oregon five weeks ago, particularly when it comes to eliminating explosive plays and tackling in space. If Ohio State can limit the explosiveness of the Indiana passing offense and put the Hoosiers in difficult situations on third down, it could be a long day for Rourke and company. It’s also important to remember that this is a massive step up in class for the former MAC quarterback, who is undoubtedly playing in the biggest game of his career in what will be an extremely hostile environment.

On the other side of the ball, we can expect Chip Kelly to have a balanced gameplan and put the ball in the hands of his stars on Saturday, especially since this Hoosiers defense hasn’t faced anything close to an offense like this. Ohio State presents matchup nightmares for any team because of the presence of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside, and even if the passing game isn’t clicking, Will Howard can just turn around and hand the ball off to either Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson, and the results will come. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine how Ohio State doesn’t score plenty of points in this game. The Buckeyes offense is much too talented and efficient to be limited against an Indiana defense that has been rock solid all year, but clearly isn’t on the same level as the likes of Penn State or Oregon from a talent perspective. Heading into this weekend, top-5 ranked teams have been listed as a double-digit underdogs just 14 times over the last 10 seasons, and they are 0-14 straight up and 5-9 against the spread in those contests. Throw in the fact that Ohio State finally isn’t going on the road for one of these marquee games against a top 10 opponent, and we have the ideal game script for a Buckeyes victory by double digits.

Indiana vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -12.5

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