Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/24

Prior to Week 1, I wrote about how the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff is a major opportunity for James Franklin and this Penn State program to consistently produce results on a national stage. Through the first month of the campaign, it looks like this program is well on its way to qualifying for the sport’s biggest stage in December. In the offseason, the Nittany Lions were aggressive in changing their approach on offense by hiring offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki away from a Kansas program where he did a lot with less talent. That move has already yielded terrific results, as this offense is 2nd in passing success rate, 3rd in EPA per pass, 9th in EPA margin and 9th in net points per drive (College Football Insiders). In fact, against West Virginia — Penn State’s biggest game of the season to date — the Nittany Lions were in the 99th percentile in the nation in explosive play rate (Game on Paper). Drew Allar looks exceedingly comfortable within Kotelnicki’s offense and it’s led to tremendous results thus far (8 TDs, 1 INT, 70.7% completion). It’s important to remember that Kotelnicki just saw this same Illinois defense a year ago, when Kansas racked up well over 500 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play in a double-digit victory over the Illini. It’s safe to say that this Penn State team is considerably better than what we saw with Kansas a season ago, so this Illinois defense certainly has its hands full.

On defense, the Nittany Lions haven’t quite been as elite as they were a season ago, but they should be in a great position to succeed at home against an Illini offense that likely won’t be able to run the ball very effectively against a top 15 rush defense. While I’ve been impressed with Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, particularly his performance in a win over Nebraska last week, the Illini do have a +7 turnover margin this season and were extremely fortunate to come out on top over Kansas back in Week 2. If this team wasn’t undefeated, this line is probably much closer to 3 touchdowns than the current number. Lastly, we know that Franklin’s teams excel as big favorites. In fact, Franklin is a whopping 51-27 against the spread (65.4%) for his career when his teams are favored by a touchdown or more. He also holds a record of 43-24-2 (64.2%) when laying double digits. Winning and covering against inferior teams is just something that Franklin has always done, and that should continue here in what should be a raucous White Out-like atmosphere in Beaver Stadium.

Illinois vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -17 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18 (-110). 

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Penn State’s game in Week 1 against West Virginia should serve as a good instructional baseline for how we can approach this game. I’m expecting the Nittany Lions to control the line of scrimmage on offense and break off a couple of key chunk runs at different points in this game with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen running behind this experienced offensive line. As mentioned, Kotelnicki should have a effective game plan ready for an Illinois defense that has gotten a bit fortunate with turnover luck to this point in the season. And while I don’t expect much success for the Illini on the road in this extremely hostile environment, Altmyer and company should scratch off just enough to get us over this relatively manageable total for a game involving an excellent and efficient offense. Let’s get to the window with the over in State College.

Over 47.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.