Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 12/27/24

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) will make the short trip to the Birmingham Bowl on Friday in what figures to be quite an entertaining matchup. Regardless of the outcome, Georgia Tech has secured its 2nd consecutive winning season, which is a big deal in Atlanta considering the Yellow Jackets have not had back-to-back winning seasons in a decade. Meanwhile, the Commodores hope to secure the program’s first winning since 2013 when James Franklin was still coaching in Nashville. 

As of about 24 hours prior to kick-off, Georgia Tech seems to be much more affected by injuries and the transfer portal than Vanderbilt. Star wide receiver Eric Singleton and starting safety Taye Seymore have already signed with Auburn, while the Jackets’ arguably-best offensive lineman is off to Arkansas. They will also be without starting linebacker Romello Height, who signed with Texas Tech, and at least 2 other defensive starters due to injury. Vanderbilt lost 1 starting offensive lineman that transferred to Florida State, but outside of him, there aren’t many notable transfer portal entries to report. I haven’t been able to find anything that would indicate star tight end Eli Stowers intends to opt-out, either. Therefore, Vanderbilt’s offense seems primed for success against a decimated Georgia Tech defense that was 65th in PPA per play and 70th in points per scoring opportunity when healthy. 

Despite their opt-outs, the Yellow Jackets should find some success offensively as well – specifically on the ground. With Haynes King and Jamal Haynes expected to play, Georgia Tech will threaten the Commodores with a dangerous rushing attack that averaged nearly 5 yards per carry this season. Vanderbilt will counter with a defense that is outside the top 60 in PPA per rush allowed and outside the top 110 in rush success rate allowed since Week 9, in addition to ranking 111th in PFF’s tackling metric. With 2 quarterbacks that are excellent at evading pressure expected to play, as well as offensive playmakers on both sides like Haynes and Stowers, I like points in this game despite the projected sloppy weather forecast – mainly because I don’t think either defense is going to offer much resistance in scoring situations. For reference, Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech are mutually outside the top 65 in opponent red zone scoring percentage, and both of them grade out below average in points allowed per opposing trip inside the 40-yard line. Take the Over.

Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt prediction: Over 51 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 52

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