Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/19/24

For the second consecutive week, we have a titanic matchup between top 5 teams in prime time as the Georgia Bulldogs will head to Austin as underdogs to take on the Texas Longhorns under the lights. The Longhorns have looked like the best team in college football to this point, but it’s important to note that they have yet to face an offense with a pulse through the first half of the season, as the best teams Texas has gone up against thus far have been Michigan and Oklahoma. As we’ve seen this season, neither of those teams do anything close to approximate what the Longhorns will see from this Georgia offense on Saturday. Even as they’ve struggled with finding consistency following the loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs are still 6th nationally in EPA per rush, 17th in EPA per dropback and a top 20 unit in points per quality possession and early downs EPA (College Football Insiders). It’s also fair to assume that Georgia might have kept a few things under wraps on offense over the past couple weeks with the knowledge that this game was on deck. With that said, there are still concerns to be had with this Bulldogs team, and they come on the defensive side of the ball.

If there’s one thing we learned from when Alabama played Georgia back in September, it’s that teams can see success against this Bulldogs’ secondary. Georgia is outside the top 50 in EPA per pass on defense and 87th in passing success rate. These are alarming numbers compared to what the Bulldogs defense usually produces in the Kirby Smart era. Something isn’t quite right with this defensive unit at the moment, and I fully expect Steve Sarkisian and this loaded Texas offense to absolutely generate some explosive plays at home. The Longhorns’ offense is inside the top 10 in nearly every meaningful metric, and most importantly, Texas checks in at 6th in passing success rate, 3rd in EPA per pass and 2nd in net points per drive. Even though this is the toughest test for Texas’ defense to this point, this is a matchup where Sarkisian and Ewers should be comfortable on the offensive side of the ball, especially at home. Look for plenty of points to be scored in this one, so I’ll take the over for my Georgia vs Texas prediction while it’s still at a key number of 55.

Georgia vs Texas prediction: Over 55 available at time of publishing. Playable to 56.

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