Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/09/24

This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend in terms of SEC and College Football Playoff implications, which points our expert in the direction of a lower-scoring affair between two of the best defenses in the nation. In fact, we just saw the under cash in a very similar situation between Georgia and Texas a few weeks back. Part of the reason why I’m projecting a lower-scoring game on Saturday is that this clearly isn’t your typically elite Georgia team under Kirby Smart. As has been proven on multiple occasions already this season — most notably in unconvincing wins over Florida and Kentucky — the Bulldogs are uncharacteristically sloppy, don’t look as connected on both sides of the ball and have struggled with both starting off slow and putting teams away this season. Things won’t get any easier for this group against an Ole Miss defense that is quietly one of the best in the nation, sitting at 2nd nationally in success rate allowed, 4th in EPA margin and tops in the country in net points per drive. If the Rebels defensive line can consistently generate pressure on Carson Beck, the veteran quarterback will likely turn the ball over at least once, as he’s thrown multiple interceptions in 4 of the last 5 games, giving him 11 interceptions on the season to this point.

On the other side, this Georgia defense isn’t quite as dominant as what we’ve seen from the Bulldogs in year’s past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 10 in pretty much every meaningful metric, including success rate allowed, opponent EPA per rush and 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. The Bulldogs are going up against an Ole Miss offense that certainly has the potential to be an explosive unit, as we just saw in a 63-point outburst against Arkansas a week ago. With that said, the Rebels offense did struggle when going up against a high level SEC defensive front in Kentucky, and Jaxson Dart and company should meet some resistance against a Georgia defense that recently dominated the line of scrimmage against Texas. On top of the advantages both defenses should hold in this game, I fully expect both coaches to keep things close to the vest early on and avoid taking chances, especially given the magnitude of this game. Let’s get to the window with the under while it’s still over the key number of 55.

Georgia vs Ole Miss prediction: Under 55.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 55.

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