Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/24

Arguably the biggest game of the 2024 college football regular season, the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa, Alabama for a matchup with the Crimson Tide off a mutual bye week. As you have probably heard, coach Kirby Smart is just 1-5 SU against Alabama in his tenure at Georgia – but is that an Alabama stat or a Nick Saban stat? I’m of the opinion that it is more of a Nick Saban stat, and I think Coach Smart will use this game as an opportunity to showcase that. Furthermore, I would imagine he used the near-loss at Kentucky and the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship last year (and Jalen Milroe’s words following) as motivational pieces during the bye week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s gathering bulletin board material this week from the media – who seems to be very pro-Alabama heading into this heavy-weight SEC matchup.

Clemson and Kentucky have their flaws, but they present a bigger challenge than any of Alabama’s previous opponents. The Tide have yet to see anywhere near a formidable defense to this point, as Western Kentucky, USF and Wisconsin all rank outside the top 100 in defensive ppa and explosiveness. For comparison, Georgia ranks 7th and 1st in those metrics, respectively. The overall step up in competition could overwhelm an Alabama offensive line that collectively ranks outside the top 70 in line yards and stuff rate allowed, especially if Georgia’s Mykel Williams can contribute. The Bulldogs have yet to yield a touchdown this season, and opponents have crossed Georgia’s 40-yard line just 10 times in 3 games. Furthermore, Georgia is top 15 nationally in opposing pass ppa, pass success and pass explosiveness in non-garbage time this season. Jalen Milroe and the Tide will be Georgia’s stiffest offensive test by far, but the Bulldogs seem equipt to limit Alabama’s offense if they win the battle in the trenches. On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s offense has had its ups and downs so far this season – but are we sure Alabama’s defense is as good as the numbers suggest given the Tide’s level of competition to this point? Alabama’s previous 3 opponents leave a bit to be desired offensively. South Florida’s quarterback Byrum Brown failed to hit multiple wide open receivers that blew open Alabama’s coverage, and Wisconsin’s Tyler Van Dyke sustained an injury early in the Week 3 matchup against the Tide. 

Georgia wasn’t impressive at Kentucky, but the Bulldogs have experienced similar flat spots in previous years and have impressively bounced back from them. In fact, Coach Smart is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss or a SU win of 10 points or fewer since the start of the 2021 season (excluding the bowl game against Florida State last year), and those 2 non-covers were in games that Georgia was favored by more than 30 points. In a contest between seemingly even-matched heavy weights this early in the season, I am rolling with the better coach in a motivated spot to win outright. Give me Georgia on the moneyline. 

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction: Georgia Bulldogs Money line (-125) at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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Against weaker levels of competition, Alabama has displayed elite explosiveness. However, the Bulldogs have limited opposing explosives at an equally elite rate defensively. In fact, the ‘Dawgs have allowed just 2 20-yard plays in 3 games this season, and that includes 2 power conference opponents. Alabama has had success limiting explosives as well, yielding just 3 20-yards plays in 3 games. Both defenses have also been very good at finishing drives in non-garbage time, with each yielding less than 2 points per opposing scoring opportunity. As such, there could be a lot of possessions in this game that end with a turnover on downs or a field goal attempt. 

On top of an expected strong defensive performance, it is important to note pace of play in this matchup. Georgia has been one of the most methodical offenses in the country this season, ranking in the bottom 15 nationally in plays per game and seconds per play against FBS opponents. Oddly enough, Alabama doesn’t play dramatically faster than the Bulldogs like their scores may depict. The Tide are 86th in plays per game and 72nd in plays per game. If these defenses continue to limit explosives at such a high rate, then the expected pace of this game is likely to keep it under the total. 

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction: Under 48.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.