Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/02/24

Formerly known as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” the Georgia-Florida rivalry continues its tradition of playing on a neutral field in Jacksonville despite the conference realignment in the SEC. Both the Bulldogs and the Gators come into this game off their 2nd bye of the season, and each of them secured quality wins prior to their week off. Georgia stifled Texas in Austin 30-15, while Florida dismantled Kentucky in the Swamp 48-20. With bowl aspirations for Florida and College Football Playoff aspirations for Georgia, this figures to be yet another intense matchup between the Bulldogs and the Gators, and I expect Coach Smart and Coach Napier to have an aggressive approach offensively because of it.

Florida’s defense has been very efficient since Week 5, but it has not played an offense as good as Georgia’s in that time. The Gators held UCF’s offense to just 13 points, which ultimately resulted in Knights quarterback KJ Jefferson being benched. Then, the Gators played Tennessee and Kentucky – 2 offenses that are outside the top 100 in PPA and outside the top 90 in success rate in the last 5 weeks. On the other side of the ball, there is reason for optimism surrounding the Florida offense with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway under center. Lagway displays a willingness to throw the ball deep, and he’s been very effective when doing so. Among 19 qualified quarterbacks, Lagway leads the SEC in completion percentage and yards per attempt on passes of at least 20 yards, with 9 big-time throws and 0 turnover-worthy plays. This makes Florida’ offense much more threatening downfield than it was with Graham Mertz, who completed less than 40% of his passes and averaged less than 8 yards per attempt on passes of at least 20 yards.

I’m going to take the Over in this former SEC East rivalry. Georgia’s defense, while stout, has been vulnerable against the pass recently. The Bulldogs rank 54th in opposing pass PPA and success rate since Week 5, and they are outside the top 65 in opposing pass explosiveness as well. Lagway should be able to test the Georgia secondary with his talented wide receiver trio in Elijhah Badger, Eugene Wilson III and Chimere Dike – all of whom grade as top 20 receivers in the SEC by PFF with at least 14 yards per reception. With a potent downfield passing threat, the Gators should score enough to help push this game over the total, assuming Georgia continues scoring at a high clip. For reference, the Bulldogs have tallied at least 30 points in all but 1 game, and they are averaging almost 4.5 points per scoring opportunity in the last 5 weeks.

Florida vs Georgia prediction: Over 52 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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