Colorado Buffaloes vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

Throughout the second half of the 2023 college football season, I consistently bet on an Arizona team that I believed to be undervalued in the market. The Wildcats had been unlucky in some close, one possession games earlier in the year and were somewhat overlooked down the stretch, even as they continued to win games and cover spreads over the final 8 weeks of the campaign. I’ve been doing a similar thing with this Kansas team since the Jayhawks knocked off Houston back on October 19. Over the last 4 weeks, Kansas is 3-1 and 4-0 against the number, including massive victories over Iowa State and BYU in consecutive games. This week, the Jayhawks will look to play spoiler once again, as Kansas is set to take on a Colorado team that has surpassed all expectations this season, albeit with one of the easiest in-conference schedules of any team in the Big 12.

With multiple 40+ point outbursts over the past month, there’s a reason to be optimistic about Lance Leipold’s offense heading into Saturday’s contest against the Buffaloes. Jalon Daniels is playing at an elite level during this recent stretch (10 total touchdowns to just 2 interception), and there’s reason to be optimistic that this Kansas offense (8th in 3rd down success rate, 17th in success rate, 2nd in points per quality possession) will keep on rolling against a Buffaloes defense that has simply not faced a quarterback and offensive head coach of this caliber all season long. In fact, when Colorado did face a dual-threat quarterback that was in the upper echelon of the Big 12, the Buffaloes surrendered well over 400 yards of offense, including nearly 200 yards on the ground. Given that Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation thanks to Daniels and running back Devin Neal, this should be a challenging matchup for an improved (but largely untested) Colorado defensive front.

This Colorado team has gotten a ton of hype, and it’s largely been justified given the turnaround from a disappointing 2023 campaign. With that said, this will be one of the tougher matchups of the season for Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes passing offense. Kansas’ defense battled some key injuries earlier in the season, but the all-conference cornerback duo of Melo Dotson and Cobee Bryant present a tough matchup for the likes of Travis Hunter and LaJohntay Wester on the outside. The Jayhawks defense has struggled against the run, but Colorado isn’t the team that is going to take advantage of that weakness, as the Buffaloes are 107th in rushing success rate. Despite covering the number against Utah a week ago, we did see Colorado struggle to generate explosive plays downfield against the Utes strong secondary, particularly in the first 3 quarters. In fact, if Utah didn’t allow a punt return touchdown and generally had any sort of offense to speak of, that game ends up likely coming down to the wire. I was all over the Buffaloes in a great spot last week, but I can’t ignore getting a full field goal at home with a Kansas team that is still undervalued. 

Colorado vs Kansas prediction: Kansas +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas +3.

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