Clemson Tigers vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/21/24

The 2024 College Football Playoff is set, and with the expansion to 12 teams, the Texas Longhorns (11-2) will host the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers (10-3) in Austin in the first round. The Longhorns are significant favorites in this matchup, which is probably to be expected given the fact that they took care of business against everyone not named the Georgia Bulldogs. In fact, Texas was 0-2 SU and ATS in its games against Georgia this season, but 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in all other games – just missing the money by a field goal as double-digit favorites against Kentucky and Arkansas. On the other side, Clemson is fortunate to be in this situation, as the Tigers slid into the ACC title game having lost just 1 conference game in a regular season in which they avoided the other top 2 teams in the conference (Miami and SMU). Moreover, the Tigers needed a last-second field goal to win the ACC Championship over SMU despite holding a 24-7 halftime lead. 

At first glance, this feels like a lot of points to give a former national champion that is playing with house money. However, Texas’ defense is the best unit in this matchup, and I can’t seem to shake Clemson’s regular season performances against its best defensive opponents from my head. The Tigers started the season with a less-than-desirable performance against Georgia, in which they scored just 3 points and averaged less than 4 yards per play. Against Louisville in Week 10, the Tigers averaged less than 4.5 yards per play and scored just 21 points despite running over 100 plays on their home field. They also struggled to score in their season finale at home against South Carolina, a game that ended abruptly because of a Cade Klubnik interception while the Tigers were in game-tying field goal range. Texas’ defense is not only better than those previously mentioned teams, but every defense in the country except Notre Dame when you look at season-long PPA per play outside of garbage time. 

The Longhorns excel at limiting explosives and scoring opportunities while generating havoc at a top 10 rate, which figures to be a problem for a Clemson offense that is 85th in points per scoring opportunity and 53rd in total havoc allowed since Week 9. Klubnik has been excellent under pressure this season, and there is a path to success for the Tigers if he can improvise in the pocket and create offense through hidden yards with his legs. However, facing this type of defense in a true road atmosphere in the playoffs is going to give him everything he can handle and is likely to wear him down as the game goes on – especially if running back Phil Mafah is not 100%. I have Texas power rated as a 13.5-point favorite in this matchup, so I lean to laying the points with the Longhorns at home.

Clemson vs Texas prediction: Texas -11 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -12. 

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As I highlighted in the spread prediction, I don’t believe we can trust Clemson to score consistently throughout this game barring some turnover luck similar to that of the ACC Championship Game. I expect Texas to struggle offensively at points of this game as well given Quinn Ewers’ inconsistencies under center. The Texas offensive line gets a lot of praise for being one of, if not the best unit in the country, but they’ve given up 28 sacks this season (87th) and currently rank 114th in front 7 havoc allowed outside of garbage time since Week 9. Clemson’s front 7 can get to the quarterback, as the Tigers have recorded 33 sacks this season (25th), and Ewers has really struggled under pressure. Per PFF, Ewers has just 2 big-time throws and 6 turnover-worthy plays in 106 dropbacks against pressure, and those issues were magnified against the best defenses he faced this season. In 2 games against Georgia, Ewers had 9 total turnover-worthy plays and was sacked 11 times. He also had 5 combined turnover-worthy plays against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, 2 defenses that produce similarly to the level of Clemson’s stop-unit. 

Both Texas and Clemson are top 20 in plays per game against FBS opponents, but their actual tempo is a bit slower. The Tigers are 45th in seconds per play, while Texas is 38th. Moreover, these offenses struggle in scoring situations, averaging fewer than 3.7 points per opportunity – which puts them both 85th or worse nationally. Given the magnitude of this matchup, I expect a methodical approach to this game offensively, at least early on, which should suppress scoring enough to keep this game Under the total.

Clemson vs Texas prediction: Under 52 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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