BYU Cougars vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/24

From a situational perspective, this one of the better spots of the weekend, as we’re getting to back a Baylor team that no one will be interested in betting following an absolute debacle of a loss against Colorado in Week 4. Head coach Dave Aranda’s job security is being called into question, and for good reason, after the Bears allowed Colorado to complete a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation, before losing in overtime on a fumble at the goal line. The national narrative around the program will likely be that the season is over and team no longer has anything to play for. While last week’s loss could certainly carry over and ultimately ruin a somewhat promising season from this Baylor program, I actually the Bears will get up for this game and rally the troops at home against a pretty overvalued BYU team following a questionable result last Saturday.

On its face, BYU’s 38-9 thumping of Kansas State looked like a very impressive victory in front of a raucous atmosphere in Provo. However, the advanced box score tells a much different story, as Kansas State actually had a 65% postgame win expectancy in this contest despite losing by nearly 30 points (College Football Data). The Wildcats outgained BYU by 126 yards, ran 24 more plays and only punted once, all while being well above the national average in success rate on standard downs. However, Kansas State was minus 3 in the turnover battle and also allowed one of the wilder punt return touchdowns you’ll see all season. There’s no doubt that the BYU defense is much improved from a season ago (22nd in passing success rate, 9th in EPA per dropback, 29th in EPA per rush), but the Cougars are still a work in progress on offense. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff and company are going against a Baylor defense that should be the best unit on the field on Saturday, as the Bears are inside the top 10 in opponent rushing and passing success rate, and a top 20 unit on early downs (College Football Insiders). On the other side, the Bears offense has looked like a different beast since Sawyer Robinson was inserted in at quarterback, and I’d expect that success to continue in a massive bounce-back spot at home. As long as we don’t have another instance of turnover luck going against us here, it’s hard not to like the unranked team laying a short number at home to an AP Top 25 opponent.

BYU vs Baylor prediction: Baylor -2.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Baylor -3 (-110). 

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