Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

As we enter the home stretch of the college football season, we find SMU at the top of the ACC standings, and that brings us to our Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs prediction. SMU is sitting at the top of the ACC standings, and with games left with BC, Virginia, and Cal, they are all but a lock to make the conference championship game. Still, if they want to make the new 12-team playoffs, there is no room for a loss. On the other side, Boston College is coming off a win over Syracuse, but things are not great for this team right now. After quarterback Thomas Castellanos limped off the field last week, coach Bill O’Brien announced this week that Castellanos will be benched in favor of Grayson James. And while BC won last week with James, they mostly relied on the run. I don’t think they can have success that way against SMU. My BC vs SMU pick is SMU -18.5.

I think this game comes down to matchup strengths and weaknesses. Let’s start with the defenses. Both teams are much stronger against the run than the pass. SMU ranks 5th in the country, while BC is 46th in rushing yards allowed per game. Both teams, however, rank outside the top 100 in passing yards allowed. For a team like SMU, both of those stats are partly a function of a team that is playing from ahead (and often way ahead) most of the season. Given the quarterback change and the general offensive disarray of BC, though, I do not expect them to gain much traction on offense regardless. SMU is a much better defense than they get credit for, and given the stakes of the game, I expect SMU to leave no doubt. We are talking about a 3-score spread, and that is always difficult to eat, but I think SMU is that much better in this spot. Give me the Ponies.

Boston College vs SMU Prediction: SMU -18.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -19.5.

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