Boise State Broncos vs Wyoming Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/23/24

At this point in the season, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the College Football Playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot (although Tulane and Army aren’t too far behind). Given their strong resume to this point, the Broncos just need to win, and they won’t exactly need style points in order to keep their ranking stable and march toward a conference title and berth in the playoff. That line of thinking is important when considering Saturday’s matchup against a Wyoming team that is playing a bit better on both sides of the ball after a disastrous first half of the season.

While the Cowboys aren’t exactly the most difficult opponent remaining on Boise State’s regular season schedule, the weather figures to be a major factor in this game, as we can expect windy conditions and cooler temperatures on Saturday evening in Laramie. In a game where it just needs to win and isn’t worried about margin or style points, Boise State should turn to its ground game and all-world running back Ashton Jeanty to grind out scoring drives on the ground while wearing down a Wyoming defense that is 108th in opponent EPA per rush on the season. That game script is conducive to an under, especially since the Cowboys defense is surprisingly great at getting off the field on 3rd downs (11th in 3rd down success rate) and I can certainly see Boise State’s offense keeping things pretty vanilla with a potential rematch with UNLV in the conference title game just a few weeks away. 

The area of concern with this Boise State team has been in the secondary, and the Broncos did allow some explosive plays to Nick Nash and San Jose State’s passing offense a week ago. With that said, Wyoming doesn’t present anywhere near the same challenge with its passing game, as the Cowboys are a lowly 129th in passing success rate and 125th in EPA per pass. We shouldn’t expect many explosive plays from the Cowboys in this contest, which also bodes well for a game script that shades toward the under. Even though it’s unlikely that this Cowboys defense will be able to contain Jeanty, Maddux Madsen and the Boise State offense, this is still a game where the Broncos offense will likely throttle down in the second half, while also not surrendering many points on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s take the under in this Mountain West clash on Saturday.

Boise State vs Wyoming prediction: Under 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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