Boise State Broncos vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 10/25/24

In the inaugural season of the College Football Playoff, this certainly feels like the game of the year in the Group of 5, as both teams likely have the best chance of making some real noise in the 12-team playoff if they are able to get there. While most college football fans are likely familiar with this Boise State program, the Broncos will be taking on a UNLV team that has been excellent all season long — including pulling off multiple upset victories over the likes of Houston and Kansas back in September. With that said, the current number on the Broncos feels a bit short to me at under a field goal — especially when factoring in the advantage Boise State holds on a couple of key fronts in this one.

On offense, it all starts with running back Ashton Jeanty for Boise State. Jeanty is a 1-man offense at this point, and he’ll get to face a defensive unit that has quietly dropped off against the run in recent games. Not only will Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack represent the toughest test for the Rebels’ defense, but the Broncos are also still ranked third in Early Downs EPA and 8th in success rate on 3rd and 4th downs. It certainly helps matters that the Broncos’ offensive line has been excellent in pass blocking over the past month, which should allow quarterback Maddux Madsen (12-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio) to keep playing clean football. Compare that to a UNLV defense that is 92nd in passing success rate allowed and 60th in 3rd and 4th-down success rate, and there should be plenty of avenues for Boise State’s explosive offense to find success in this game.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are going to have to deal with a UNLV offense that has taken off in recent weeks with new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams under center. With that said, this Boise State defense did just provide itself with a blueprint for stopping Williams and the Rebels offense. The Broncos smothered Washington State quarterback John Mateer (20 rush attempts for just 28 yards) in its only meeting against a similar profile of quarterback this season back on September 28, so that should inspire some confidence in the Broncos’ ability to stop the quarterback run game in Friday’s matchup. Ultimately, I think we’re getting a bit of a discount on what is clearly the best team in the Group of 5 this season. Let’s lay the points with Boise State.

Boise State vs UNLV prediction: Boise State -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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