Boise State Broncos vs San Jose State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

At this point in the season, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the College Football Playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot (although Tulane and Army aren’t too far behind). Given their strong resume to this point, the Broncos just need to do is win, and they won’t exactly need style points in order to keep their ranking stable and march toward a conference title and berth in the playoff. That line of thinking is important when considering Saturday’s matchup against a San Jose State team that is setting up to be a bit of a “trap game” for the Broncos. After all, the Spartans are one of the better teams in the Mountain West and have likely become the most difficult opponent remaining on Boise State’s regular season schedule. In a game where it just needs to win and isn’t worried about margin or style points, Boise State should look to lean on all-world running back Ashton Jeanty early and often as he looks to add to his historic season against a San Jose State defense that is 86th in rushing success rate allowed.

The issue in this game for the Broncos shouldn’t be on offense, but rather a defense that is 81st in points per drive, 80th in 3rd and 4th down defense and outside the top 100 in tackling. Just like week, the Broncos secondary allowed some explosive plays to Nevada’s below average passing offense, a consistent theme this season when any Boise State opponent has time to throw. With that in mind, San Jose State’s rock solid passing attack should hit on a couple of big plays, as quarterback Walker Eget is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 395 yards and a touchdown against Oregon State in Corvallis a week ago. However, the real star on this Spartans team is wide receiver Nick Nash, who is easily one of the best players in the country that nobody talks about on a national level. Nash has a whopping 13 touchdowns on the season and is coming off a 6-reception, 161 yard performance in that victory over Oregon State. Even if the Spartans defense can’t hold down Jeanty, Maddux Madsen and the Boise State offense, this is still a game where the backdoor should be wide open late in the 4th quarter. Let’s take the Spartans to keep things within a couple of scores.

Boise State vs San Jose State prediction: San Jose State +14 available at time of publishing. Playable to 13.5

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