Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/30/24

The annual in-state rivalry game between the Auburn Tigers (5-6) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3), known as the “Iron Bowl,” will kick off at 3:30pm ET on Saturday afternoon from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Interestingly enough, these teams come into this game following very different results last week, as Auburn played arguably its best game of the season against Texas A&M and Alabama played its worst in a loss at Oklahoma. The Tigers gained 469 total yards and scored more than 40 points for the first time against a power conference opponent, while the Tide failed to score a touchdown and gained just 234 yards thanks to 3 Jalen Milroe interceptions.

This year’s installment of the Iron Bowl is between 2 very good defenses. The Tigers and the Crimson Tide are top 30 nationally in scoring defense and total defense, yielding fewer than 21 points and 325 yards per game this season. There has not been much drop-off in the late half of the season for either team, as Auburn and Alabama are both top 10 in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 8 while yielding fewer than 3.2 points per scoring opportunity. The defensive efficiency extends into the red zone as well. Both teams are top 25 in opposing red zone scoring rate (includes field goals) this season. The same cannot be said for the offensive side of the ball, where the Tigers and the Tide are both outside the top 65 in red zone scoring. In fact, the Tigers are outside the top 100 in that aspect.

My expectation is that this game is controlled by the defenses. Neither Auburn nor Alabama play with extreme tempo, and both offenses are outside the top 75 in explosiveness per play outside of garbage time since the middle of October. With more confidence in the defensive side of things, I recommend a play on the Under in the Iron Bowl.

Auburn vs Alabama prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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