Army Black Knights vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/23/24

In a matchup between Army and Notre Dame late in the season, few would expect that the Black Knights are actually the team that is undefeated between these two programs. Army has been one of the best stories in the sport this season, exceeding all expectations thanks to another terrific coaching job from Jeff Monken and a tremendous year from quarterback Bryson Daily. With 28 total touchdowns to just 1 interception on the season, Daily has been the best quarterback for this Army program in decades, and he even has a chance to play his way into the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York if the Black Knights are able to win on Saturday and complete an undefeated dream season by knocking off Tulane in the AAC title game and beating Navy the following week. And while the metrics are outstanding for Army on both sides of the ball (2nd in offensive success rate, 1st in 3rd/4th down success rate on offense, 8th in points per drive allowed), much of that can be attributed to the Black Knights playing a very weak schedule to this point, even by the standards of the AAC. It goes without saying that this is easily the toughest game of the season for Army to this point, and it comes against a team that has already proven it can dominate and cover large spreads against service academies.

Notre Dame looked to be a pretty inconsistent team over the first month of the season, but the Fighting Irish have rounded into form over the past 5 games, having beaten their opponents by an average of nearly 34 points during this stretch. It’s as dominant as this program has ever looked under head coach Marcus Freeman, and Saturday’s matchup is one that is very favorable to his team. After all, Notre Dame played a red-hot Navy squad just a few weeks back and completely demolished Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen for the second consecutive season, holding Navy’s offense to just 14 points and forcing a whopping 6 turnovers in a 51-14 bludgeoning at MetLife Stadium. Having already seen — and excelled against — an option style offense from a service academy, this stout Fighting Irish defense (1st in Early Downs EPA, 1st in EPA per dropback, 4th in opponent points per drive) should consistently live in the backfield and force Army into some extremely difficult and uncomfortable 3rd down situations. On the other side of the ball, the Black Knights have had consistent trouble defending the rush this season, sitting at 82nd in success rate allowed on the ground. That doesn’t bode well against a Notre Dame offense that is looking to keep the ball on the ground (6th in EPA per rush) and establish the line of scrimmage. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw yet another blowout win for the Fighting Irish in a massive hype spot against an undefeated, ranked opponent.

Army vs Notre Dame prediction: Notre Dame -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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