Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/21/24

The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1) got back in the win-column last week with a 37-27 win over UAB. They failed to cover the spread, but they out-gained the Blazers 427-354, converted 7 of 12 3rd downs and were especially efficient via the run game. The Razorbacks gained 266 total rushing yards and 7 yards per carry against the Blazers, mostly via the legs of running back Ja’Quinden Jackson and quarterback Taylen Green. On Saturday, they will hit the road for their first conference game against the Auburn Tigers (2-1), who have yet to leave the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers bounced back from their Week 2 loss to Cal with a 45-19 win over New Mexico, as they gained 503 total yards and 6.7 yards per carry. However, they yielded 448 yards to an offense that ranks outside the top 55 in scoring offense, total offense and ppa. Auburn holds a 20-12-1 all time record against Arkansas, winning 7 of its last 8 matchups against the Razorbacks. Oddly enough, Arkansas’ lone win in that span was in 2022 at Auburn by a score of 41-27.

Through 3 games, Arkansas has one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country. Propelled by Jackson and Green, the Razorbacks post 259 rushing yards per game – which ranks 9th nationally. Going a little bit deeper, the Razorbacks are also top 10 in rush ppa and success rate while maintaining a top 25 mark in rush explosiveness. That success starts up front, as Arkansas’ offensive line is 13th in line yards. Statistically, Auburn’s rush defense is solid, but the Tigers haven’t played anyone of Arkansas’ caliber to this point – and it’s a bit concerning they yielded 6 yards per carry to New Mexico last week. Offensively, Auburn will start freshman quarterback Hank Brown again after he threw for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Lobos, but this will be a dramatic step up in class for Brown – not to mention a step up in pressure. Overall, I can’t help but like Arkansas’ offense the most out of any unit in this matchup, so I recommend taking the points with the Razorbacks. For what it’s worth, the Razorbacks are 13-3 ATS as road dogs under Sam Pittman, including 6-0 in their last 6.

Arkansas Razorbacks +3 (-105) courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.