Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/24

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in a SEC matchup. Alabama is coming off a huge win over Georgia at home to improve to 4-0. The Tide’s offense, and specifically quarterback Jalen Milroe, looked incredible in the win. Some would say it is now playoff or bust for Alabama, but it has a very tough schedule ahead. Vanderbilt is a surprising 2-2 this year and could have easily been 4-0 with its only 2 losses coming by 4 points or fewer. The ‘Dores are coming off a loss where they took the 7th-ranked Missouri Tigers to overtime. Unfortunately for the Commodores, despite Missouri and Alabama being close in ranking, they are not close in talent. This is a tricky spot for Alabama going on the road after beating Georgia and the meat of its schedule up ahead. Can the sneaky Commodores catch Alabama sleeping and at least cover the spread or will Alabama look as good as it did last week?

Alabama boasts a top-10 offense in the country, averaging 47 points and 486 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide are just as effective — allowing only 15 points and 315 yards per game. In other words, they are a very complete football team that despite a close call against USF, has looked dominant all season. Last week the stars emerged against Georgia with Milroe and wide receiver Ryan Williams, who is 17 if you haven’t heard. Williams’ stats were great, with 6 receptions for 177 yards and a touchdown, but it was how he made the catches and made those catches in such big spots that impressed. Milroe had an 81.8% completion percentage with 374 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He also used arguably his best weapons and rushed for 117 yards on 16 carries with 2 touchdowns. Another quarterback who has been dominant with his legs is Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. He is their leading rusher with 71 carries for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns. Pavia has a 64% completion percentage with 721 yards and 6 touchdowns. The Commodores feature the 26th-best offense in the country behind Pavia, averaging 37 points and 354 yards per game. Defensively they are no slouch, either, only allowing 23.3 points per game and 334 yards per game. Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, it hasn’t played an offense anywhere close to as good as the Tide this year.

Alabama is going to score whenever and however it wants as long as it doesn’t overlook this game. If the Tider do overlook this game, the Commodores have enough offensive firepower to score early and often before Alabama wakes up. That is why I like the over in this game. If the Tide come in hot and play their best game, they could score 60 on this Vanderbilt defense; if they sleepwalk a little, the Commodores can cover the difference to hit the over. Alabama is 3-1 to the over this season and 8-2 in its last 10 games, and Vanderbilt is 4-0 and 7-3 in its last 10. Let’s take the over in this matchup between 2 capable offenses with mobile quarterbacks. 

Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction: Over 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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