Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/19/24

Alabama (5-1) and Tennessee (5-1) come into this annual rivalry matchup in similar situations. Both teams lost in Week 6 and followed those performances with near-losses at home last week against South Carolina and Florida, respectively. Alabama was out-gained by South Carolina 374-313 despite the Gamecocks committing 4 turnovers, while Tennessee was out-gained 361-312 and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 10 minutes. This is a pivotal game for the race to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff, so expect both coaches to put it all on the line in Knoxville on Saturday afternoon.

Alabama’s games have been high-scoring this season. Every game has surpassed the 50-point threshold due to an offense that is top 20 in PPA and success rate since Week 3 and a defense that is 80th or worst in those metrics, respectively, in that same time. The Tide have also been extremely prone to explosive plays, ranking 95th in opposing explosiveness in the last 5 weeks (excluding garbage time). Tennessee profiles a bit differently. The Volunteers are not quite as explosive offensively in conference play as the Tide, and their defense has been much better than Alabama’s on paper. However, the Vols have not played a quarterback to the level of Jalen Milroe to this point of the season, so I’m not exactly sure how good the Tennessee secondary is. The closest thing to Milroe on Tennessee’s schedule was Arkansas’ Taylen Green, who was 19 of 27 passing for 266 yards before exiting the game in the early 4th quarter with an injury. 

Tennessee has been able to limit opposing scoring on quality drives in the last 5 weeks, but Alabama will test that in this matchup — the Crimson Tide are a top 30 offense in finishing drives this season. The Tide should have plenty of scoring opportunities, too. The Vols are a top 30 team in plays per game and seconds per play in the last 5 weeks, which means there should be plenty of possessions for these 2 to score. I lean over in this one. 

Alabama vs Tennessee prediction: Over 56 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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