College Football Picks

By the time BYU kicks off on Saturday night, the Big 12 picture could be all cleared up — or if any of several teams lose, half the conference may be gathered around the television praying for the Cougars (which Cougars, that just depends). My Houston Cougars vs BYU Cougars prediction, therefore, could have a lot on the line or nothing at all; we won’t know until very close to kickoff. Either way, though, BYU will still be trying to add a win and — at the very least — secure the best bowl slot possible. I don’t think Houston will stand in its way. My Houston vs BYU prediction is BYU -13.

In a lot of ways, I think BYU has been something of a fraud all season. I love its coach and I love this team’s moxie, but it has also benefited from one weird thing after another for much of the season. Having now lost 2 games in a row, that luck finally ran dry. Still, the blue Cougars are far better than Houston. In short, Houston cannot score. The red Cougars are nearly at the bottom of FCS in terms of yards per game, ahead of only a handful of schools like the hapless Florida State and the winless Kent State. Last week they scored only 10 points, all a direct result of Baylor’s insistence on throwing interceptions. This offense just simply cannot score and I don’t think that will change in one of the rowdier home stadiums in the nation. Bear in mind also that temps will likely be below freezing before the game is over. I don’t see the motivation for Houston, and it is possible that BYU might have all the motivation in the world. I would play this one early in the week — 13 points is a fine line regardless, and if BYU has a chance to get into the championship game then I suspect this line goes much higher.

Houston vs BYU prediction: BYU -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Northwestern Wildcats will end their regular season competing within the “Friendly Confines” of Wrigley Field. Illinois is currently ranked 23rd in the nation and is looking to complete its first 9-win season since 2007. The Illini have won their last 2 games and scored 38 points in each victory. Northwestern will fall short of a bowl game this season. The Wildcats have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with all 4 losses being by 20 or more points. Their lone win is a 26-20 victory over 1-10 Purdue. This may be considered a home game for Northwestern, but it has not faired well when playing at Wrigley. NU is 0-4 at this venue since 2010. I expect several Illini fans to make the drive north and for this game to feel more like a neutral site.

‘Cats quarterback Jack Lausch took over the starting position earlier this season from Mike Wright after Wright struggled through his first 2 games. Northwestern loves to throw the football, but — unfortunately — even with Lausch the Wildcats have struggled. They have attempted more passing plays than running despite only averaging 5.7 yards per attempt and 172.9 yards per game this season through the air. Lausch has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, which will be a problem against Illinois — a squad that excels against the pass. Illinois has 9 interceptions this season and holds opponents to an average of 212 passing yards per game. Where Illinois struggles is against the run, but Northwestern’s hasn’t been able to produce a consistent rushing attack yet this season. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has had his best year yet in orange with 20 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. I expect the Illini to improve to 9 wins at Northwestern’s expense.

Illinois vs Northwestern prediction: Illinois -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Seemingly every game in the Big 12 carries implications for either bowl eligibility, the conference title game, or both — and that brings us to Waco for our Kansas Jayhawks vs Baylor Bears prediction. For Kansas, the season hangs in the balance; a win means bowl eligibility and loss ends the campaign. For Baylor, there are still some weird where it is 1 of 9 (yes, 9!) teams that still could sneak into the conference title game. And as a measure of just how mediocre the Big 12 has been, had Baylor not lost to Colorado on a fluky Hail Mary + OT combo, Baylor would be on the inside track to the championship game. Wild. So how do we play this game? For me, I don’t see any way this game stays under the total of 61.5. I think both teams will blow past the 30-point mark, especially given the motivation they both have to win.

One oddity of this game is that at the time of this writing (Wednesday), nearly 100 percent of the spread and money line tickets are on the Jayhawks. If you want to bet with Vegas, Vegas wipes the table if Baylor wins. Honestly, I think Baylor is the better team — but a slow start has hidden that fact. The Bears have won 5 in a row, and in most of that stretch they have been scoring in bunches. Kansas is also hot, hough, winning 3 games in a row against ranked opponents. The ‘Hawks have finally looked like the team we expected them to be when the season began. Right now, with 2 hot teams and 2 teams that are hot especially on the offensive side of the ball, I am expecting a ton of scoring. As an added bonus, this is one of the few places in the country where the weather will be perfect — 60s, sunny and fantastic. Both teams should blow past 30 points, and both have played games where they have threatened this total by halftime. This could be one of those games.

Kansas Jayhawks vs Baylor Bears Prediction: Over 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 64.5.

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The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a statement 37-9 over Pittsburgh, looking to take down the Kentucky Wildcats and win the Governor’s Cup for the first time since 2017. This spread is somewhat puzzling at first glance, but the Wildcats have had tremendous success in recent years against this Cardinals team. However, I believe that changes this year; the underlying numbers heavily favor Louisville. Kentucky ranks 115th in total offense, 117th in PPA/pass and 103rd in PPA/rush. There essentially hasn’t been a strong element of the offense and turnovers have been a problem, ranking 129th in interceptions per pass attempt. The Cardinals’ defense has had its ups and downs, but the unit ranks 24th in EPA/rush and the Wildcats typically lean on the ground game.

Simply put, I struggle to see how Kentucky’s offense can keep up with QB Tyler Shough and the Cards’ offense. Shough ranks top 10 individually in passing yards per game and he should have no issue carving up a Kentucky defense that has allowed 32.75 points per game in its last 4 against Power 4 opponents. Louisville ranks top 10 in both rushing success rate and passing success rate offensively and I expect the momentum from last week’s 507-yard performance to carry over into this rivalry game. With all things considered, I love the Cardinals in this spot and will take them to cover.

Louisville vs Kentucky prediction: Louisville -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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It’s rivalry week in college football, which means the Michigan Wolverines (6-5) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) will meet at noon on Saturday from the Horseshoe in Columbus. The Wolverines have won outright and against the spread in 3 consecutive meetings with the Buckeyes, which is tied for Michigan’s longest winning streak in this rivalry series since 1995-1997. Michigan may not be in the College Football Playoff discussion this season, but Ohio State very much is – and the Buckeyes cannot afford a home loss to a 6-5 team no matter who it is. 

Michigan is going to throw everything it has at Ohio State in this matchup. The Wolverines had their best offensive showing of the season last week against Northwestern, but the Wildcats are nowhere near the defensive talent as the Buckeyes – who are 1st nationally in defensive PPA and points per opportunity allowed outside of garbage time since Week 8. Furthermore, the Buckeyes defense has been the epitome of “bend but don’t break,” as it gives up a touchdown on just 36% of opposing red zone trips – which also leads the nation. The Wolverines will likely have difficulty getting the ball into scoring range much less actually scoring, especially given their offensive one-dimensionality. Michigan’s offensive strength is its running game, and Ohio State is 3rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per game with top 50 marks in advanced rushing metrics like opposing rush PPA, success rate and explosiveness outside of garbage time since the middle of October. It would behoove the Wolverines to attack this Ohio State defense through the air, but that’s not a strength of Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines rank 128th in passing yards per game this season, and in the last 6 weeks, they are 99th in pass PPA and 131st in pass explosiveness.

All of the Buckeyes’ goals are still in front of them, and while this is a massive number for a rivalry game, I don’t expect them to let up at any point. Look for a fired-up Ohio State squad to exact revenge on Michigan in The Game on Saturday, earning a Big Ten Championship berth for the first time since 2020. 

Michigan vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -21. 

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This year’s installment of the Palmetto Bowl between the South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) and the Clemson Tigers (9-2) will kick off at noon ET on Saturday from Death Valley in Clemson. Both teams essentially had bye weeks leading into this game, as South Carolina beat FCS Wofford 56-12 while Clemson beat FCS Citadel 51-14. The Gamecocks find themselves in the midst of a 5-game winning streak with victories over Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Missouri. Meanwhile, the Tigers rebounded nicely from a 33-21 home loss to Louisville with 2 consecutive road wins over Virginia Tech and Pitt to end their conference schedule. The Tigers have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Gamecocks, but it was the Gamecocks who were victorious the last time they visited Clemson in 2022. This particular matchup could be the most impactful of the longstanding rivalry between South Carolina’s flagship universities, as the winner of this game has a legitimate shot to make the College Football Playoff after the chaotic results of Week 13. 

By the numbers, Clemson’s offense has been one of the best in college football. The Tigers average 37.6 points and 469.9 yards per game, but they also have a strength of schedule that ranks 57th according to ESPN. They scored 24 points or fewer just 4 times this season, and those 4 times just so happened to be against the top 4 defenses on their schedule to this point – Georgia, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pitt. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the Gamecocks have better numbers than all those teams and are legitimately one of the best defenses in the country. With the 12th-ranked strength of schedule and the 14th-ranked strength of record, South Carolina is 14th in scoring defense and 13th in total defense on the season as a whole, and the Gamecocks are top 20 in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 8. Yielding just 2.43 points per opposing trip inside their 40-yard line, the Gamecocks are 6th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity since mid-October, and their season-long red zone defense has been great as well – boasting a top 10 mark in opposing red zone touchdown rate.

On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s offense has been surprisingly good in the last 6 weeks. The Gamecocks are 13th nationally in PPA since Week 8, scoring an average of 4.57 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line. Compare that to the Tigers, who rank 41st in PPA and have scored an average of 4.06 points per scoring opportunity. South Carolina’s offense is predicated on the run with running back Raheim Sanders and dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers, which is an area of weakness for Clemson’s defense. The Tigers have yielded an average 139.64 rushing yards per game (55th) this season, and they are 84th in opposing rush PPA and 128th in explosiveness per rush outside of garbage time over the last 6 weeks. Everything points to a Gamecock win in this spot, so I will take South Carolina on the money line despite being on the road. For what it’s worth, the Gamecocks are 3-1 SU on the road this season.

South Carolina vs Clemson prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks ML +115 at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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Last weekend couldn’t have gone any better for Tennessee, as the Volunteers got to bully an overmatched UTEP team at home and watch as their fellow College Football Playoff contenders in the SEC went down in embarrassing fashion on the road to inferior opponents. Don’t look now, but Josh Heupel’s team has found itself in that exact same situation this week, as Tennessee will face off against Vanderbilt in what is sure to be the best installment in this series in years.

On one side, you have a Vanderbilt offense that is similar to what we see from service academies. Diego Pavia has been a revelation at quarterback and he spearheads a unit that ranks inside the top 15 in EPA per dropback and consistently wins on 3rd down (30th in 3rd/4th down success rate). Despite their terrific passing metrics, what the Commodores do best is run the ball effectively on early downs and chew up a ton of clock, which limits possessions for their opponent and shortens the game as a result. That’s exactly what makes Vanderbilt so good as an underdog, as Clark Lea’s team is 7-1 against the number as an underdog, while sitting at just 1-2 against the spread as a favorite. It also helps that the Commodores are taking on a Tennessee team that hasn’t impressed me all season long, particularly in the passing game on offense. That lack of consistent success and any threat of explosiveness downfield especially hurts against a Vanderbilt defense that is solid against the run, but can be had in the secondary. This Volunteers team is 0-4 in SEC play as a double digit favorite this season, and with an offense that has struggled mightily with generating results all season long, it’s easy to see why. 

A week ago, we saw numerous playoff hopefuls go on the road and lose outright as double digit favorites, particularly in the SEC. While I’m not calling for an outright upset on Saturday, it’s clear to me that Vanderbilt is live in this game, just like against the likes of Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn and Texas earlier this season. On top of that, SEC underdogs in conference play this season are a whopping 40-17-1 (70%) against the spread, which is the best of any conference over the past 5 seasons. I fully expect that trend to continue in Nashville on Saturday, so let’s get to the window with Vanderbilt.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt +11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5

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The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in what somehow could be a deciding game in the Big 12 championship race. Although it’s a longshot, both squads are playing for a small chance in the title game with a win, and this matchup is a recipe for a shootout. Both offenses rank top 20 in offensive explosiveness while ranking in the bottom 20 in explosiveness allowed on defense. In other words, both teams have had success via the big play while struggling mightily to limit big plays on defense. 

Both the Mountaineers and Red Raiders are 7-4 in favor of the over this season and neither defense has been reliable in any sense of the matter. Both units rank outside the top 100 in PPA/pass, so the offenses could have a field day through the air. With all things considered, I’ll take the over in this matchup.

West Virginia vs Texas Tech prediction: Over 64.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Boston College Eagles in an ACC battle. Pitt is having a good season with a 7-4 record which has already surpassed its preseason win total of 5.5. The Panthers are 3-4 in conference play, so they are out of the race for the conference championship — but with a win they could still get into the top 25 and get a good bowl game. Boston College is in a similar spot. The Eagles are 6-5 which also surpassed their preseason win total of 4.5. They are also 3-4 in conference play, so they are also looking for a win to get a better bowl game. 

Pitt is on a 4 game-losing streak after starting the season 7-0. Three of those losses were to the top teams in the conference, but 1 was to Virginia at home which was a tough loss. The Panthers’ 24th-ranked offense has carried them through the season, averaging 35 points and 428.8 yards per game. Their defense hasn’t kept that pace, though, allowing on average 25.1 points and 361.4 yards per game which ranks 73rd. Three of their wins and 2 of their losses have come by 7 points or fewer, so the Panthers have played in some tight games this year. Boston College is the same with 5 games being decided by 1 score or less. They don’t have the offense that Pitt does, averaging only 27.6 points and 360.1 yards per game — which ranks them 73rd. Defensively they are ranked the same at 73rd. The difference in the offenses is why I like Pitt in this game. These teams are very similar, but 1 has better offensive numbers and a head coach in his 10th season who has had five 8-win seasons compared to Boston College’s first-year head coach. Both teams are 6-4 against the spread, to there is also no disparity there. I’m taking the points on the road with Pitt, which is looking to bounce back and win its final regular-season game.

Pittsburgh vs Boston College prediction: Pitt +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As we enter the final weekend of college football, we head to the desert for our Arizona State Sun Devils vs Arizona Wildcats prediction. As with virtually every Big 12 game this weekend, there are title game implications, and the Sun Devils control their own destiny. If they win, they are on to the title game. Arizona, on the other hand, has nothing to play for except spoiling the season of its rival — and that might be enough. The Wildcats will not be going bowling, and this season has been a tremendous disappointment. Still, this is a rivalry game — and the final game of the season. It has “chaos” written all over it. I think this game is much more likely to turn into a shootout than to be a defensive grind. My Arizona State vs Arizona pick is the game total over 53.5.

For the Wildcats, I expect them to pull out all the stops. This is a time for trick plays, and it is a time to showcase their NFL receiver one last time. Fifita and McMillian will look to go out with a boom. And while the Sun Devils have leaned on their defense, this is a game in which their offense should pile up yards on most drives. The Wildcat defense should get gashed by Cam Skattabo and the rushing attack in particular. There is no lead that would make the Sun Devils feel comfortable, so expect them to keep pushing. Nor do I think Arizona will let up at all. I think this game to pile up yards and points, probably in silly and chaotic ways — and with any luck we can avoid all the drama of students prematurely rushing the field and tearing down goalposts before the game is actually over. Give me the over.

Arizona State vs Arizona prediction: Over 53.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Missouri Tigers with both teams already bowl eligible and not much to play for other than overall records. The Razorbacks like to run the ball and let QB Taylen Green run rampant, but their offense could run into problems against this Mizzou defense. The Tigers rank 11th in PPA/rush and 25th in rushing success allowed and have overall been pretty stout against the run. Arkansas will likely be forced into passing situations where they haven’t been as consistent. Turnovers have been an issue for Arkansas (110th in turnover margin) and I wouldn’t be surprised if we say a lot of stalled drives in this one.

As for Missouri on offense, the Tigers are more methodical in their approach, ranking 108 in offensive explosiveness. Furthermore, they have also struggled to finish drives ranking 80th in points per scoring opportunity. With all things considered, I’m taking the under in this one.

Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The annual in-state rivalry game between the Auburn Tigers (5-6) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3), known as the “Iron Bowl,” will kick off at 3:30pm ET on Saturday afternoon from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Interestingly enough, these teams come into this game following very different results last week, as Auburn played arguably its best game of the season against Texas A&M and Alabama played its worst in a loss at Oklahoma. The Tigers gained 469 total yards and scored more than 40 points for the first time against a power conference opponent, while the Tide failed to score a touchdown and gained just 234 yards thanks to 3 Jalen Milroe interceptions.

This year’s installment of the Iron Bowl is between 2 very good defenses. The Tigers and the Crimson Tide are top 30 nationally in scoring defense and total defense, yielding fewer than 21 points and 325 yards per game this season. There has not been much drop-off in the late half of the season for either team, as Auburn and Alabama are both top 10 in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 8 while yielding fewer than 3.2 points per scoring opportunity. The defensive efficiency extends into the red zone as well. Both teams are top 25 in opposing red zone scoring rate (includes field goals) this season. The same cannot be said for the offensive side of the ball, where the Tigers and the Tide are both outside the top 65 in red zone scoring. In fact, the Tigers are outside the top 100 in that aspect.

My expectation is that this game is controlled by the defenses. Neither Auburn nor Alabama play with extreme tempo, and both offenses are outside the top 75 in explosiveness per play outside of garbage time since the middle of October. With more confidence in the defensive side of things, I recommend a play on the Under in the Iron Bowl.

Auburn vs Alabama prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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As we wrap up the season and consider our California Bears vs SMU Mustangs prediction, SMU has already punched its ticket to the conference title game regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s games. Nevertheless, the Mustangs have their sights set on larger goals, and with a win here they might be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the title game outcome. I do not expect SMU to let up, unless they have a massive lead and can rest starters. Cal’s defense should be too good to get totally blown off the field though. Still, with Cal already bowl eligible and SMU playing with everything on the line, I expect the Mustangs to jump ahead early and keep working from there. With an opening line just under 14 points, it seems like Vegas is begging us to take SMU and might be trying to trap us, but I am going to spring the trap. Give me SMU -13.5.

Let’s start with the Bears, who have won 3 of their last 4 games. This is supposed to be a spread offense with a solid rushing attack, yet here at the end of the season the Bears are one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation. SMU can be bullies on the line of scrimmage defensively, too, so Cal will likely become 1-dimensional. I expect SMU to keep Cal off the scoreboard for the most part. This spread is a question of the other side of the ball. SMU plays a go-fast offense, but Cal’s defense is tough — ranking inside the nation’s top 40 in total defense. Still, I think this is a spot where the Mustangs can’t afford to be fooling around — and if they find the endzone much at all, they should pull away. SMU will lock up Cal defensively, and I think the ‘Stangs get just enough offense to cover this number.

California vs SMU prediction: SMU -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Even though this line has ticked up a few points, I still think we’re getting a bit of value with the favorite in this Big Ten matchup. Over the last few weeks, I’ve repeatedly highlighted that the teams that are inside the top half of the College Football Playoff rankings don’t need to do anything other than win, and the rest will sort itself out. For a team like Penn State, style points don’t necessarily matter in this weekend’s game against Maryland, just win and the Nittany Lions are safely into the 12-team playoff field. With that said, there’s just something to be said for James Franklin and his historical dominance against Maryland in his time as the head coach at Penn State. Not only has Franklin been exceptional as a double-digit favorite (45-27-2 ATS), he has been particularly outstanding against Maryland. In fact, Penn State has dispatched the Terrapins in 7 of the last 8 seasons, with 6 of those victories coming by at least 24 points. Much has been made of the fact that Franklin might have a few personal past grievances with the Maryland program, and that’s certainly showed up on the field in this series.

As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since a loss to Ohio State earlier this month, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). The Nittany Lions should bounce back from an inconsistent effort a week ago against a Maryland defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed, 82nd in Early Downs EPA and 86th in net points per drive for the season. The Terrapins have dropped 4 straight games and have nothing really to play for at this point in this season. They’re also pretty banged up on offense, particularly at quarterback, as Billy Edwards suffered a thumb injury in last week’s loss at home to Iowa. If Edwards is unable to go, the Penn State defense should hold a massive advantage over backup quarterback MJ Morris, but it’s not as if a limited version of Edwards is going to be that much of an improvement for a Terrapins offense that is 91st in success rate on the year. Let’s back Franklin and the Nittany Lions to roll through Maryland and close out the regular season on a high note.

Maryland vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -24 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number,

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It is the final week of the season, and the ACC title game is still hanging in the balance as we look at our Miami Hurricanes vs Syracuse Orange prediction. SMU is already in the championship game, and Miami needs a win to secure its spot. With a loss, Clemson would slide in instead. For all the hype around Miami, this team is not as dominant as you would think. The ‘Canes needed the conference to save them at home against Virginia Tech, they beat Cal by just 1, they narrowly survived Louisville and they lost on the road to Georgia Tech. Playing at Syracuse is right up there with any of those (and at 8-3, ‘Cuse has a better record than all of them and beat the 3 common opponents by more than Miami did). Miami is fortunate that this game is inside, too, as the weather in New York is not Miami-friendly. I am looking for an absolute shootout in this one, and the first defense to get a stop will probably win. I think Miami is getting too many points; give me Syracuse +11.

This game features the nation’s 2 leading passers. Kyle McCord will go over the 4000 yard mark sometime in the first quarter, and Cam Ward should get there by the end of the game. Good luck playing defense when these 2 guys get involved! The question in this game is if anyone can play defense and slow down these passing attacks. Syracuse has been more vulnerable against the run than the pass, but it probably won’t matter in this case. Statistically, Miami is good against the pass, but the vast majority of its opponents are run-heavy teams — and really none of them were aerial attacks. I think they will get gashed by McCord and company. This game probably comes down to turnovers, or — dare I say it — coaching, which might be enough to keep Syracuse in this one until the end. Syracuse is no pushover, and Miami should have its hands full. This could be a 1-possession game. I’ll take the points with the home team.

Miami vs Syracuse prediction: Syracuse +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NC State Wolfpack hope on the bus and take Interstate 40 west to Kenan Memorial Stadium for their annual rivalry game against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Wolfpack head into this game not only trying to beat their largest rivals but also trying to secure bowl eligibility with a victory. They almost got the job done at Georgia Tech last week but suffered a 30-29 loss as +7.5 underdogs in Atlanta. NC State has covered 3 of the past 4 games and 3 of the past 4 losses since Oct. 5 have been 1-score games. NC State isn’t that far away.

The Tar Heels took a 41-21 loss at Boston College last time out as -2.5 favorites and are now just 1-6-1 ATS as favorites this season. Mack Brown has been fired, although he will still coach in this one before departing Chapel Hill. North Carolina might have already secured bowl eligibility with a sixth win against Wake Forest on Nov. 16, but it has lost 3 straight meetings against the Wolfpack, including a 30-27 setback in overtime on Nov. 25, 2022 at Kenan. In fact, North Carolina has won just once in the past 5 games at home against NC State while going 2-3 ATS in the span. Let’s keep backing NC State in this series until UNC can figure it out.

NC State vs North Carolina prediction: NC State +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable that number.

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Another chapter in the longstanding rivalry between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) and the USC Trojans (6-5) will unfold in southern California on Saturday afternoon. The Irish control their own destiny when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and the Trojans are in line to play “spoiler” as the home underdog in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Notre Dame has won 5 of the last 6 meetings against USC, but the Trojans were victorious the last time the Irish visited the LA Memorial Coliseum. 

Any way you slice it, the numbers point to Notre Dame in this matchup. However, at the current number, I am hesitant to lay points with the Fighting Irish for a couple reasons. First, this will be just their 3rd true road game. If you want to split hairs, it will be only their 2nd, as the Georgia Tech game was at Mercedes-Benz Stadium rather than Bobby Dodd Stadium on campus. Furthermore, the Irish have not traveled anywhere outside the eastern or central time zones yet this season. Another reason why I cannot get to this number is because of the level of competition that Notre Dame has played – particularly in the passing game. USC has arguably the best passing offense and group of receivers the Irish will have faced at any point this season, averaging exactly the same amount of passing yards per game as Louisville. Oddly enough, the Cardinals are the only team to surpass 20 points against the Notre Dame defense this season, as they scored 24 thanks to the play of Tyler Shough – who passed for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns on the road in South Bend as the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes against Notre Dame this year. The Trojans have scored at least 28 points in all of their home games this season, and anything 28 or better should have them in great position to cover this spread at the very least. Give me the points with the home underdog playing with nothing to lose. 

Notre Dame vs USC prediction: USC Trojans +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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Michigan State’s bowl season hopes will be on the line when the Spartans (5-6) host the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers (6-5) on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. Despite being outgained, the Spartans were victorious last week against Purdue thanks to playing turnover-free football as well as excellent run defense. Rutgers, on the other hand, was not as fortunate. The Knights lost at home to Illinois on a 40-yard touchdown pass with just 4 seconds left. 

This game could turn into an ugly weather game, as Saturday is forecasted to be cold and windy with a chance of snow throughout the day. In those conditions, it’s best to target the team with the better ground game, which is Michigan State on both sides of the ball in this matchup. The Spartans are a top 70 team in PPA per rush, rushing success rate and line yards outside of garbage time since Week 8, while the Knights are 99th, 72nd and 101st, respectively, against a strength of schedule outside the top 65 per ESPN. For reference, Michigan State’s strength of schedule ranks 13th. On the defensive side, the Spartans completely outshine the Scarlet Knights against the run. Michigan State is top 30 in stuff rate, opposing line yards, opposing PPA per rush and rush success rate since the middle of October, while Rutgers ranks 90th or worse in all of those metrics. Given their advantages on the ground, I like the Spartans to benefit from being at home in what could be a snow game in East Lansing and earn bowl eligibility.

Rutgers vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans -2 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5. 

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The Florida Gators take on the Florida State Seminoles in a big rivalry game. This is the end of the gauntlet for Florida, which has arguably the hardest schedule in the country and still has managed a 6-5 record The Gators have won 3 of their last 5 games including wins over Ole Miss and LSU. They would love a win to get to 7-5 and have already surpassed their preseason win total of 4.5. Florida State has had the opposite season with a 2-9 record and a preseason win total of 9.5, making it arguably the most disappointing team in the country. The Seminoles don’t have much to play for in this game other than beating their rivals and putting out some good tape for those entering the transfer portal, but they could still cover the 2-touchdown spread in this game. 

Florida has looked very good when quarterback DJ Lagway is starting. He has started 4 games this year against Samford, Kentucky, LSU and Ole MIs. All 4 were wins. Lagway was injured for 2 of their bigger games against Texas and Georgia but has been back for 2 weeks now and notched wins over LSU and Ole Miss. He is just a freshman so there’s a lot of hope in Gainesville for the future, especially for Billy Napier who has been disappointing so far in his tenure. Florida State thought it was going to have an electric quarterback in DJ Uiagalelei, a transfer from Oregon State, but he has been disappointing — to say the least. The ‘Noles have the worst-ranked offense in the FBS averaging only 13.3 points and 258.9 yards per game. Defensively they are not much better ranking 100th nationally. Florida is only slightly better with the 64th-ranked offense and 89th-ranked defense, but only 4 games this season have been with Lagway under center. Florida is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, while Florida State is 3-6-1 ATS. I like the Gators to go into Tallahassee and not only win but cover the spread. Florida State just doesn’t have any fight left in this season and Florida has everything to play for. I’m backing UF to cover on the road. 

Florida vs Florida State prediction: Florida -15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 16.5.

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The Oklahoma Sooners take on the LSU Tigers in an SEC battle. Oklahoma is coming off its best win of the season — a 24-3 victory over Alabama — and is looking to build off that momentum to get to 7 wins on the season. The Sooners’ preseason win total was 7.5, so they won’t surpass that number — but a win to end the season might stave off fans calling for head coach Brent Venables’ job. LSU is also in the midst of a disappointing season but is coming off a win against Vanderbilt last week. The Tigers are 7-4 with a preseason win total of 9.5 so they aren’t getting there, either. The Tigers had lost 3 in a row before last week’s win and those losses were to bitter rivals Alabama, Texas A&M and Florida. LSU and head coach Brian Kelly would also like a win in this game to cool down his seat.

This is a game between a defensive-minded team and an offensive-minded opponent. The Sooners allow on average only 21.9 points per game and 319 yards per game, which ranks their defense 41st in the country. The Tigers average 29.1 points per game and 431.7 yards, which rans their offense 57th. Both teams lack on the other side of the ball, with Oklahoma ranking 90th on offense and LSU ranking 71st on defense. They say defense travels and I think Oklahoma’s defense will travel well in this game. Recency bias gets the best of us sometimes, but last week against Alabama — the 8th-ranked offense in the country — the Sooners defense held their opposition to just 3 points. They had not played like that all year, but if that unit plays like that again, they can cover in this game. The Sooners have also been covering spreads this year compared to LSU. Oklahoma is 5-5 ATS this season, while LSU is 3-7. The Tigers have also only covered 1 spread as favorites in SEC play. If the Sooners perform like they did last week, they can cover this spread if not even win outright.

Oklahoma vs LSU prediction: Oklahoma +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Purdue Boilermakers head south to battle the rival Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. These teams play for 1 of the esteemed trophies in the Big Ten, the Old Oaken Bucket — which was established way back in 1925. On that date, nobody earned the bucket, as these teams played to a 0-0 tie. Purdue leads the all-time series 77-42-6, with the Boilermakers winning the past 4 in the series. However, Purdue has lost 10 consecutive games this season — last winning on Aug. 31 against Indiana State of the FCS in the opener. Purdue is just 2-8 against the spread in this 10-game losing skid, too, although it did cover in a 24-17 loss at Michigan State last week as a 14-point ‘dog.

Indiana is still very much in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot despite its first loss at Ohio State last weekend. The Hoosiers were rolled 38-15 in Columbus, failing to cover as +10.5 underdog. IU is now 0-2 ATS in the past 2 outings after an 8-game cover streak from Sept. 6-Nov. 2. The Hoosiers are likely to be plenty angry after the loss to Ohio State, and unfortunately for the Boilermakers, they are going to serve as a punching bag. Look for Indiana to treat its biggest rival rudely, covering a big number in the finale.

Purdue vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -29 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 30.5.

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The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Iowa State Cyclones in a matchup with major Big 12 championship implications. Numbers aside, Kansas State has been more inconsistent all throughout this season whereas you know exactly what you’re getting with the Cyclones. Iowa State has been one of the most well-rounded teams in the country this year ranking top-30 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback offensively. Defensively, Iowa State has been solid as well ranking 22nd in net points per drive allowed top-10 in EPA/dropback allowed.

The run defense has been questionable in recent weeks, but the passing game has the ability to simply out-pace the Wildcats’ run-first approach. In a matchup that could decide the Big 12 title race, I’ll take the home team that has been fantastic at closing out games, ranking top-5 in 2nd half point margin. It’s slightly juiced, but I’ll take the moneyline straight up rather than risking any buffoonery on the 2-point spread. 

Kansas State ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -140.

Of all the big games on Saturday of college football Week 14 – and there are a few of them – the renewed rivalry between the Texas Longhorns (10-1) and the Texas A&M Aggies (9-2) figures to be the most significant of them all. The winner of this game will earn a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship, and therefore will still have a direct path to the College Football Playoff. In other words, both Texas and Texas A&M control their own destiny when it comes to the playoff. Win this game and the conference title game, and you’re in,. However, the playoff ramifications don’t even begin to cover the magnitude of this matchup. Texas vs Texas A&M was a longstanding annual rivalry for nearly 100 years before Texas A&M left the Big 12 for the SEC in 2011 without a promise to continue the annual tradition. As such, these renewed in-state rivals will play for the first time in over 13 years. For what it’s worth, Texas won in College Station in 2011 27-25. 

This game is a complete toss-up when it comes to the spread, but I will take the points with the home underdog under the lights of Kyle Field in College Station. Texas A&M has a very good defensive front that can apply pressure to Quinn Ewers, which is not something he has faced much of this year. In fact, he has only faced pressure on 25.9% of his dropbacks according to PFF, committing 4 turnover-worthy plays with 0 big-time throws against that pressure. With a well-rounded offense and a veteran quarterback, Texas should have enough to win this game by a few points, but the Aggies have the pieces defensively to make it extremely difficult for the Longhorns. Texas A&M keeps it close.

Texas vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies +5.5 (-102) at the time of publishing. Playable to +4.5.  

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I’ve had a pretty good feel for this Oregon team throughout Big Ten play, and I was more than happy to fade them in an awful spot against Wisconsin back on November 16. That trip to Madison marked the eighth straight game without a bye week in conference play for the Ducks, as Oregon had to traverse through multiple time zones for the third time in the span of 6 weeks. What we saw at Camp Randall Stadium was a reflection of 2 months of fatigue (and injuries) finally catching up to the top team in the nation. Despite playing arguably their worst game of the season on offense, the Ducks were still able to get past an upset-minded Wisconsin squad thanks to a tremendous showing from their defense, a unit that continues to rise among the ranks of the nation’s best. Fast forward a couple of weeks, and Oregon still has the inside track to a Big Ten title and the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff. All this team needs to do is keep winning, as style points don’t matter too much given the strength of the Ducks resume at this point. However, this week’s matchup against Washington is one that’s undoubtedly very personal for Dan Lanning, his coaching staff and this group of players.

Lanning doesn’t have many losses in his time as Oregon’s head coach, but he has a trio of losses against Washington over the last 2 seasons, including a pair of brutal 3-point defeats a season ago, the second of which kept the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff. This time around, Oregon finally gets this game at home for the first time in three meetings, and I expect the Ducks to be out for blood against a clearly inferior Washington team that has lost its last 3 road games in Big Ten play by a combined margin of 67 points. Jedd Fisch and his staff deciding between senior Will Rogers and freshman Demond Williams Jr., which gives Oregon’s excellent defense (10th in success rate allowed, 5th in EPA per pass) plenty to prepare for. However, both quarterbacks have struggled mightily away from home this season, much like the rest of the team. On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate. And even if Dillon Gabriel is going to be without top target Tez Johnson once again in this game, Jordan James and the Oregon ground game should run wild on this awful Huskies rush defense (99th in rushing success rate allowed, 111th in 3rd and 4th down success rate). We just saw Will Stein’s offense look a bit out of sync for a couple of weeks, but the Ducks were buttoned up and razor sharp coming out of their first bye week of the season, and I’m expecting a similar effort in front of a raucous home crowd at Autzen Stadium this weekend. And if Washington gets behind by any sort of margin, don’t expect the Huskies to be able to throw the ball against this elite Oregon secondary, which could lead to some untimely turnovers and short fields for the Ducks offense. Oregon should suffocate the Huskies’ offense in this game, so I’ll lay the wood with Lanning and company.

Washington vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -17.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 19.

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The Nevada Wolf Pack hit the road to battle the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas. Nevada has lost 9 games and has long since been eliminated from bowl eligibility. It would still love to beat its largest rival, spoiling the Rebels’ season in the process. UNR has dropped five in a row, while going 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past four outings. Three of those 5 losses in the skid have been by a single possession, however, including a 28-21 loss at Boise State on Nov. 9 as a similar underdog — catching 22.5 points. As a double-digit underdog Nevada is 2-1 ATS, including 1-1 ATS on the road.

For UNLV, it has won 3 in a row since a devastating 29-24 loss to Boise State at home ended any hopes of a potential College Football Playoff bid. UNLV halted an 0-3 ATS skid, and 1-5 ATS run, with a cover at San Jose State last week as a -7.5 favorite. The defense has been strong in the past 2 games, allowing just 18.0 PPG. UNLV has won the past 2 while winning 4 of the past 6 meetings. In Las Vegas, the Rebels are also 2-1 SU in the past 3. This is a big number for a rivalry game, but the Rebels are trending up and the season can’t end quick enough for the Wolf Pack. Still, look for UNR to keep it within the number.

Nevada vs UNLV prediction: Nevada +17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Virginia Cavaliers and Virginia Tech Hokies tangle at Lane Stadium with a lot on the line Saturday night. Not only are these teams facing their biggest rivals, but with each team at 5-6, this is also essentially a play-in game for bowl eligibility. A win gains a couple more weeks of practice and a paycheck for a bowl game, while a loss ends the season immediately. For a battle between a pair of 5-win teams, there is a ton of intrigue for this game.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series, winning the past 3 meetings and 18 of the past 19 in addition to 22 of the past 24 in the series since Oct. 2, 1999. The last victory for Virginia at Lane Stadium came back on Nov. 28, 1998, a 36-32 result. However, while those historical do not look particularly promising for Virginia; 8 of the past 11 games in this series have been decided by 10 points. It is a rivalry game, and there haven’t been many blowouts. Last season was an exception, though, as the Hokies went into Scott Stadium and grabbed a 55-17 win. Virginia will have revenge on its mind, too, looking to not only secure a bowl game but also to serve Virginia Tech a little bit of payback. The ‘Hoos might not beat the Hokies, but they should be able to keep it within a touchdown. UVA is 3-1 ATS in the past 4 road games, while Virginia Tech is 2-3 ATS at home this season and 0-3 ATS in the past 3 overall.

Virginia vs Virginia Tech: Virginia +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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