College Football Parlays

During the offseason and back in September, I wrote extensively on Penn State’s mentality as a program and how the future was bright for James Franklin and his team in this new era of college football. In fact, perhaps no team benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a team that has consistently finished inside the top 10 of the polls over the last 8 seasons but never was able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home in front of over 100,000 screaming fans in a “White Out” environment. This is undoubtedly a massive chance for Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, and I fully believe that the Nittany Lions will take full advantage of that opportunity.

It was just a few weeks ago that we saw SMU claw its way back to nearly steal the ACC title from Clemson. And while I’m of the opinion that the Mustangs were probably the better team in that contest, that doesn’t help Rhett Lashlee’s group now, as they’ll have their hands full with a rested and hungry Penn State side in hostile territory. The problem for the Mustangs is that unlike the ACC title game, this game is one that should feature much less chaos and variance, which is typically what underdogs need to pull off an upset on the road in a big game. In fact, one of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a disappointing start to the nonconference portion of its schedule and needing to figure things out on the fly. With that being said, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially because SMU’s line has really struggled in pass protection this season.

This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Franklin’s teams have done very well over the years in this exact type of situation (favored by 7+ points at home), and I anticipate that we’ll get a similar result here. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions to protect their home field and win this game by margin.

SMU vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5

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The 2024 College Football Playoff is set, and with the expansion to 12 teams, the Texas Longhorns (11-2) will host the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers (10-3) in Austin in the first round. The Longhorns are significant favorites in this matchup, which is probably to be expected given the fact that they took care of business against everyone not named the Georgia Bulldogs. In fact, Texas was 0-2 SU and ATS in its games against Georgia this season, but 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in all other games – just missing the money by a field goal as double-digit favorites against Kentucky and Arkansas. On the other side, Clemson is fortunate to be in this situation, as the Tigers slid into the ACC title game having lost just 1 conference game in a regular season in which they avoided the other top 2 teams in the conference (Miami and SMU). Moreover, the Tigers needed a last-second field goal to win the ACC Championship over SMU despite holding a 24-7 halftime lead. 

At first glance, this feels like a lot of points to give a former national champion that is playing with house money. However, Texas’ defense is the best unit in this matchup, and I can’t seem to shake Clemson’s regular season performances against its best defensive opponents from my head. The Tigers started the season with a less-than-desirable performance against Georgia, in which they scored just 3 points and averaged less than 4 yards per play. Against Louisville in Week 10, the Tigers averaged less than 4.5 yards per play and scored just 21 points despite running over 100 plays on their home field. They also struggled to score in their season finale at home against South Carolina, a game that ended abruptly because of a Cade Klubnik interception while the Tigers were in game-tying field goal range. Texas’ defense is not only better than those previously mentioned teams, but every defense in the country except Notre Dame when you look at season-long PPA per play outside of garbage time. 

The Longhorns excel at limiting explosives and scoring opportunities while generating havoc at a top 10 rate, which figures to be a problem for a Clemson offense that is 85th in points per scoring opportunity and 53rd in total havoc allowed since Week 9. Klubnik has been excellent under pressure this season, and there is a path to success for the Tigers if he can improvise in the pocket and create offense through hidden yards with his legs. However, facing this type of defense in a true road atmosphere in the playoffs is going to give him everything he can handle and is likely to wear him down as the game goes on – especially if running back Phil Mafah is not 100%. I have Texas power rated as a 13.5-point favorite in this matchup, so I lean to laying the points with the Longhorns at home.

Clemson vs Texas prediction: Texas -11 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -12. 

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The Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) will meet for the first time since 1996 and just the 2nd time ever this Saturday in the final game of the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Volunteers finished the season winners of 6 of their last 7 – including wins over Florida and Alabama – with their lone loss in that stretch coming against Georgia in Athens. Ohio State had similar success down the stretch, but their dominant win over fellow playoff team Indiana was tarnished by a home loss to Michigan in which the Buckeyes gained only 252 yards and were held to just 10 points – their worst offensive performance since their loss to Clemson in the 2016 CFP semifinal. 

The Vols will likely turn to SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson early and often in this game, in an effort to keep the ball out of Ohio State’s hands. Samspon gained over 1,500 total yards with 22 touchdowns this season, and is one of the best running backs in the country when it comes to creating yards after contact and forcing missed tackles. He should find plenty of success behind a Tennessee offensive line that is elite in stuff rate allowed, line yards and power success while preventing opposing front 7 havoc at a top 35 rate. Despite Ohio State’s defensive prowess this season, the Buckeyes aren’t great in short yardage situations. They rank 82nd in power success and 124th in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 9, which gives the advantage to Tennessee in potential short yardage situations on third and fourth down. 

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee should be able to apply constant pressure to Ohio State quarterback Will Howard. The Vols are in a good position to shut down the Ohio State run game as well, similar to the way Michigan did in the season finale. The Buckeyes will again be without 2 starting offensive linemen, including their best pass blocker in Josh Simmons and their Rimington Award winning center Seth McGlaughlin, which is simply a disaster against James Pearce Jr and the Volunteer defensive front. Tennessee is especially good at creating negative plays in the backfield, recording 29 sacks (41st) and 93 tackles for loss (9th) this year. Furthermore, the Vols front 7 generated havoc at a top 35 rate in the final 6 weeks of the season. Per PFF, Tennessee is a top 15 defense against the run and in its pass rush, which is not ideal for the Buckeyes after the offensive performance we saw from them against Michigan, and even against Penn State and Nebraska immediately following Simmons’ injury.

The Ohio State-Michigan rivalry is the most heated in college football, so much so that a lot of Ohio State fans want coach Ryan Day fired because of his inability to beat the Wolverines at any point in the last 4 years. Some fans even argued the Buckeyes were better off declining the invitation to the CFP. I bring this up because there is going to be immense pressure on Day and the Buckeyes in front of their home fans on primetime this Saturday night. If things start to sour for the Buckeyes, the “boo birds” may be out in full force. With a strong ground game and pass rush, Tennessee has the tools to be successful in this matchup – including a decent special teams advantage per SP+. All things considered, the Vols should be able to keep this one close throughout. 

Tennessee vs Ohio State prediction: Tennessee +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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