NFL Picks

Happy Thanksgiving Pickswise Nation! The holiday slate gets started with an NFC North matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, and it the home team should be able to secure a dominant win. The Lions crushed the Colts on Sunday to move to 10-1, and while their offense has received tons of praise recently (rightfully so with 4 games of 42+ points this season), it’s been their defense that has stepped up markedly. Detroit held Indianapolis to just 6 points, which was their 2nd straight game holding a team to that number and they’ve now held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 14 points or fewer. They should have no problem keeping the Bears in check, who are yet to score more than 16 points on the road this season. Chicago did look set to turn a corner against Minnesota but was ultimately downed 30-27 in overtime, and fatigue is expected to be a factor here as they enter this one on a short week.

Detroit has won by 10 or more points in 6 of its last 8 games and with the offense boasting the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL they should have no problem carving through a Bears defense that has been resilient at times but has in turn allowed the 6th-most passing yards per attempt. That loss to the Vikings was a demoralizing one for Chicago and after their 5th straight defeat I’m expecting more misery for them, courtesy of Jared Goff and the Lions.

Bears vs Lions prediction: Lions -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 11.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Bears vs Lions predictions.

Despite Detroit’s offensive talents, I believe the Under is the way to play this one. As mentioned in my spread writeup, this Lions defense has been fantastic recently and should have little trouble keeping the Bears quiet, with quarterback Caleb Williams posting just 2 touchdown passes in his last 5 games. While Chicago did appear to wake up against the Vikings, this is still a team that scored 15, 9, 3 and 19 points in the 4 games prior and will likely have a tough time moving the chains. The Bears’ greatest asset right now is its defense and although I expect the Lions’ relentless offense to have its way with Chicago, I believe the road team can do enough to keep Detroit from really running up the score (at least keep them below 42 points). We could be run close but I’m leaning toward the Under here.

Bears vs Lions prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Bears vs Lions picks.

There’s not much value to go around on the Detroit Lions side of the football. The trio of David Montgomery, Jahymr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all have odds fewer than -115 to score. As we saw on Monday Night Football with Derrick Henry and J.K. Dobbins, a touchdown from any player is no guarantee. They both failed to score and were at least -150 to find the end zone, so we’ll take a stab at Jameson Williams and his blazing speed at +210 with FanDuel Sportsbook. The rest of the market is sitting around +170.

Williams ranks in the top 3 in 50+ yard catches this season and is one back from the lead, with Terry McLaurin leading the way after scoring a miraculous touchdown on Sunday against the Cowboys with less than a minute left. All it takes is for a shot to be called Williams’ way and he can cash in for us.

DJ Moore isn’t getting much respect from oddsmakers in terms of anytime touchdown scorer odds coming into Thursday — especially after he just recorded his 2nd 100-yard game of the season and reeled in all 7 of his targets. That made it 2 weeks in a row Moore registered at least 7 targets and caught them all. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has a pass attempts line of 33.5, and I’d suspect much of that action to go Moore’s way in what should be a pass-heavy game script with the Bears being 10-point road underdogs in a dome.

We’ve got an NFC East matchup here as the New York Giants take on the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. A lot of people have been designating this game as “nap time” due to the dire outlook for both franchises for the rest of the season, but it’s one that I see the Cowboys coming out on top in. Dallas pulled off a shock win over Washington last week as a double-digit underdog as Cooper Rush delivered another serviceable performance. The backup QB had a 75% completion rate for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns against a solid Commanders defense and should once again find some success with the Giants allowing the 5th-most passing yards per attempt and getting just 1 interception all season (fewest in the league). The Giants also allow the most yards per carry (5.2) in the NFL so Rico Dowdle should build on last week’s 86-yard performance.

I’m not expecting Dallas to light up the scoreboard but they should comfortably outscore a Giants team now led by Tommy DeVito. They scored just 7 points against the Bucs and have scored by far the fewest points in the league. DeVito managed just 189 passing yards and playing on a short week on Thanksgiving could be too quick a turnaround to see any vast improvement on that effort. I’m expecting the Cowboys to win this one by about a touchdown so happy to back them at this current number.

Giants vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Giants vs Cowboys picks.

Despite the flak this game is taking, I expect both offenses to have some success and for points to be scored. As already touched on in my spread prediction, Cooper Rush has looked solid in his first couple of starts and should continue that against a Giants defense that has allowed at least 26 points in 4 of its last 5 games. New York’s run defense has also been a sieve to this point, allowing 4 rushing touchdowns (all by different players) against the Bucs last week while also allowing 100+ rushing yards to Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris and Chuba Hubbard in their last 5 games.

While Tommy DeVito looked poor against the Bucs I’m still expecting the Giants to contribute at least in the mid-teens to this total. The Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt in the league (8.2) and the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. They have also allowed at least 26 points in each of their last 6 games. Neither offense is amazing but given how woefully bad each defense has been, there’s a case to be made that this line should be in the 40s. With that in mind, the Over looks the right side to be on in this one.

Giants vs Cowboys prediction: Over 37.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5.

You can bet on our Giants vs Cowboys pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you make a first bet of just $5! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

Two teams who are feeling better than they have all season will clash on Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football in what should be a classic inter-conference battle. The Miami Dolphins are red-hot off 3 straight impressive wins and have reinvigorated their chances at a playoff berth. It’s somewhat predictable that their offense would see immediate improvement upon Tua Tagovailoa’s return. In 5 games back, Miami has averaged over 30 ppg, and they’ve done so against some very formidable defenses (Cardinals, Bills, Rams, Raiders and Patriots). They’ve been impressive on defense, too. Over their last 3 games, they’re allowing just 16.3 ppg, but it’s worth noting who their competition was in those battles (Rams, Raiders and Patriots). In truth, the Rams were the only competent offense they’ve held back this season. Against better programs (Bills, Seahawks and Cardinals) they’re allowing 28 ppg, so we’re not confident that their defense will experience the same success at Lambeau Field.

The Packers are no slouches either, off another seminal win against the 49ers and now victors in 6 of their last 7 contests. Of course, their defense didn’t face the same challenge it usually would against last year’s NFC Champions, since Brock Purdy was absent in Week 12, but it was a dominant performance by a team that was expected to throttle the Niners in that situation. Perhaps the most promising result was Josh Jacobs and Green Bay’s consistently elite ground attack, which put up 169 yards on a stingy San Francisco defense. As a group, they average 151.6 rushing yards per game (3rd).

The narrative about Tua Tagovailoa not playing well in cold weather is tired and boring at this point. Sure, the transition from sunny South Florida to the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be easy, and it will be cold on TNF (a low of 20 degrees with 12+ mph winds). But the Dolphins believe in themselves right now. In sports, that’s half the battle, and Tagovailoa is dead set on changing perspectives about his cold weather failures. Both teams are playing very well, but the Packers’ subpar pass defense (7.2 yards/pass allowed, 18th) should give Tua and company plenty of opportunities to stay alive.

Dolphins vs Packers prediction: Dolphins +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Dolphins vs Packers predictions.

Another reason why we like Miami this weekend is that they’ve been good against solid running teams. Their run defense is limiting their best opponents (Bills, Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams) to under 100 yards per game. If they can repeat the same efforts on Thursday, the Dolphins could quickly find themselves in the driver’s seat of this battle; if not, we’ve seen how Green Bay dominates other teams when they’re winning in the trenches. Regardless, the Dolphins’ rushing attack has been less than stellar (4.1 yards per carry, 22nd), and the muddy conditions of Lambeau Field certainly won’t help their speed. Regardless, we expect both offenses to depend on their passing attack more than they want to, but that doesn’t necessarily mean either program will see much success on that end. Miami is a legitimately good defense against throwers, permitting just 6.6 yards per pass (4th) and 197.5 pass yards per game (8th). It’s also a big reason why they’ve been successful against offenses on 3rd down (5th in opponent conversion rate) and in the red zone (7th in opponent TD rate). 

The conditions won’t make things easier, either. The most disruptive element to an outdoor football game is wind, and Wisconsin is bound to see plenty of it on Thanksgiving Day. As the night progresses, wind speeds are expected to climb, at times reaching over 20 mph. That combination of a freezing environment (temperatures are forecasted to be 20-27 degrees during game time) and whipping winds suggests that neither offense will experience the same explosive success they’re used to through the air. Add the fact that both are hyper-motivated to keep winning as the playoffs loom, and this will feel more like a postseason battle than a fun, holiday game in primetime. Expect a low-scoring clash at Lambeau Field.

Dolphins vs Packers pick: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Dolphins vs Packers pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you make a first bet of just $5! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to continue their winning ways and remain atop the AFC standings when they entertain the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday afternoon. Kansas City bounced back from its first loss of the season to beat the Carolina Panthers and improve to 10-1 this past weekend, but it still isn’t blowing opponents out. The Chiefs needed a last-second field goal against Carolina, making for arguably their least impressive victory in a slew of great escapes this season. Patrick Mahomes did a nice job of distributing the ball to many different pass-catchers, but no single player has really stepped up on a depleted offense and Travis Kelce continues to underwhelm in 2024.

As for Las Vegas, Gardner Minshew II is out for the season after breaking his collarbone last week — but it’s not like he is some kind of massive loss. As unspectacular as Aidan O’Connell is, he really isn’t a downgrade from Minshew. O’Connell played in 11 games last season and has taken the field 4 times in 2024, so he has plenty of experience. Although the Raiders are nothing special, there is no circumstance in which I am giving 13.5 points in any game involving this current iteration of the Chiefs. At the same time, there is also no way I’m investing more than minimal confidence in the Raiders.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction: Raiders +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Now you can bet any of our Raiders vs Chiefs predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $150 if your first wager is a winner! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.