College Football Picks

The Purdue Boilermakers hit the road looking to finish the season strong. Since a 50-49 OT loss at Illinois, it hasn’t gone for great for Purdue lately, scoring 30 total points with two shutout losses to Oregon and Ohio State. It suffered a 49-10 loss against Penn State at Ross-Ade Stadium as a 30-point underdog, and Purdue has failed to cash in four in a row, and eight of the past nine games. Purdue’s offense has been abysmal, going for just 318.6 total yards, 181.1 passing yards, 137.5 rushing yards and 17.2 points per game. The latter ranks 129th in the nation. Defensively, the Boilermakers are also awful, as you’d expect from a 1-9 team. Purdue has allowed 455.7 total yards, 252.4 passing yards, 203.3 rushing yards and 38.9 points per game.

For Michigan State, it has scored 17 or fewer points in each of the past three games, all non-covers as an underdog. The defense has allowed 42.5 PPG in the past two games to Illinois and Indiana, too. As a favorite this season, Michigan State is 0-2 ATS, too. The offense has scored 19 or fewer points in six of the past seven games, which is a problem considering it needs to win by two or more touchdowns to cover. If it does one thing well, it’s pass the football, as freshman QB Aidan Chiles has led the team to 230.8 yards per game through the air. And defensively, Michigan State ranks 45th or higher in total yards (328.1), passing yards (198.4) and rushing yards (129.7) per game. It’s risky, but back Sparty to cover, keeping hope alive for bowl eligibility.

Michigan State -13.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We head to the Mountain West on Friday night for a UNLV Running Rebels vs San Jose State Spartans prediction. Both teams are bowl eligible already, and UNLV is still in the hunt for the conference title game. They will need some help, but all in all, this team has rallied nicely after the early-season quarterback NIL fiasco. My expectation for this game is that we will see both teams trading scores all night long, and the expected point total north of 60 is quite realistic. This one should be an absolute shootout, and I expect it to stay close. I think you could play the game total over, but as long as this spread is above a touchdown, my UNLV vs San Jose State pick is the Spartans +7.5.

What we have here is a perfect setup for the offenses. Both teams’ offensive specialties coincide with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. UNLV is a run heavy scheme in their go-go offense, and San Jose State is awful against the run. The Spartans, on the other hand, prefer to throw the ball as much as possible, and UNLV ranks outside the top 100 in passing defense. Both teams should be able to stay in their preferred mode of attack, and both defenses will struggle to defend it. San Jose State got their turn at being run over by Ashton Jeanty last week (32 carries, 159 yards, 3 touchdowns), but they were in that game until the very end, and they forced Boise to throw it a fair amount too. I think the Spartans might be a bit sturdier than the casual fan would expect, and I like their chances of keeping this game a 1-possession game. This one has the potential to be totally wild though.

UNLV vs San Jose State Prediction: San Jose State +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It will be a battle for bowl positioning in the Big Ten when the Illinois Fighting Illini and Rutgers Scarlet Knights collide in a classic noon kickoff on Saturday at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have bounced back impressively from a 4-game losing streak, winning 2 in a row to become bowl eligible. Head coach Greg Schiano’s squad took care of Minnesota 26-19 and then hammered Maryland 31-17 this past weekend. Rutgers has already tied its most conference wins since 2014, so it’s safe to say that Schiano’s second stint at the school is going in the right direction. Running back Kyle Monangai has racked up 1,028 yards and 12 touchdowns and the Scarlet Knights have turned the ball over a mere 7 times this season (eighth fewest in the nation). Rutgers is also a decent 59th in scoring defense (23.4 points per game allowed), so this is a well-balanced outfit.

Illinois has been going a bit in the other direction. The Fighting Illini have lost 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 6 following a 4-0 start. They are 1-2 in true road games, with its only win coming over Nebraska in overtime. Linebacker Dylan Rosiek, who is the team’s second-leading tackler, is questionable for Saturday. All things considered, give me the home team to win outright.

Illinois vs Rutgers prediction: Rutgers ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The biggest game on this weekend’s slate takes us to Big Ten country, where the Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers in an extremely consequential game for both conference title and College Football Playoff positioning. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in the sport this season, and Curt Cignetti’s team is on the precipice of an undefeated campaign after being picked to finish in the bottom 5 of the conference standings in the preseason media polls. The job that Cignetti has done can’t be understated and Indiana looks to be playoff bound in a remarkable program turnaround. However, I do think this incredible story comes to a bit of a halt in Columbus on Saturday, at least for the time being.

Indiana’s offense has been a machine all season long (1st in success rate, 2nd in EPA per dropback, 3rd in Early Downs EPA), but this will be the best defense that the Hoosiers have faced to this point. We just saw quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers passing offense struggle against Michigan, and with respect to the Wolverines, that unit pales in comparison to what they’ll see on Saturday. Ohio State’s defense is one of the most talented and experienced groups in the country, and the metrics certainly speak for themselves, as the Buckeyes are 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in EPA margin and 1st in points per drive. This unit has continued to improve since the loss to Oregon five weeks ago, particularly when it comes to eliminating explosive plays and tackling in space. If Ohio State can limit the explosiveness of the Indiana passing offense and put the Hoosiers in difficult situations on third down, it could be a long day for Rourke and company. It’s also important to remember that this is a massive step up in class for the former MAC quarterback, who is undoubtedly playing in the biggest game of his career in what will be an extremely hostile environment.

On the other side of the ball, we can expect Chip Kelly to have a balanced gameplan and put the ball in the hands of his stars on Saturday, especially since this Hoosiers defense hasn’t faced anything close to an offense like this. Ohio State presents matchup nightmares for any team because of the presence of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside, and even if the passing game isn’t clicking, Will Howard can just turn around and hand the ball off to either Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson, and the results will come. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine how Ohio State doesn’t score plenty of points in this game. The Buckeyes offense is much too talented and efficient to be limited against an Indiana defense that has been rock solid all year, but clearly isn’t on the same level as the likes of Penn State or Oregon from a talent perspective. Heading into this weekend, top-5 ranked teams have been listed as a double-digit underdogs just 14 times over the last 10 seasons, and they are 0-14 straight up and 5-9 against the spread in those contests. Throw in the fact that Ohio State finally isn’t going on the road for one of these marquee games against a top 10 opponent, and we have the ideal game script for a Buckeyes victory by double digits.

Indiana vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The Ole Miss Rebels’ (8-2) playoff hopes remain intact following their Week 11 win against the Georgia Bulldogs. After a week off, they hit the road to play the Florida Gators (5-5) at the Swamp in Gainesville at noon ET on Saturday. The Gators were also victorious in their last outing, defeating LSU last week at home 27-16. There is an argument that Florida was a bit fortunate in that game, as the Gators were outgained, converted just 3 of 9 third downs, and possessed the ball for less than 19 game minutes compared to LSU’s nearly 42 minutes of possession. However, the Gators did not turn the ball over and were able to generate 6.6 yards per carry against the LSU defense. 

The Gators are unlikely to find the same success in terms of offensive explosiveness this week against Ole Miss. For reference, the Rebels are top 40 in preventing explosive plays outside of garbage time since Week 7, while LSU’s defense ranks 128th in that metric. In fact, Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in the country, which does not bode well for Florida based on their results against defenses at or near the same level as Ole Miss. This will be the 5th opponent Florida has played that ranks in the top 50 in defensive PPA, success rate and points per opportunity allowed outside of garbage time on the season as a whole, and the Gators have failed to surpass 20 points against the 4 prior opponents. Ole Miss has not seen much of a drop-off in defensive production against SEC opponents either, as the Rebels are top 20 in PPA since Week 7 with top 50 marks in opposing explosiveness and points per opportunity. Furthermore, the Rebels lead the country in front 7 havoc generated since Week 7, which will likely disrupt Florida’s offensive rhythm given the fact that the Gators offensive line is outside the top 100 in front 7 havoc allowed in that time. 

Ole Miss has a similar profile to Texas in that the Rebels average more than 37 points per game with a top 5 mark in yards-per-play margin and a top 25 mark in turnover margin. That being said, the Rebels offense has been more efficient on a down-to-down basis than Texas, which leads me to believe that Ole Miss can replicate Texas’ success against this Florida defense – especially with an extra week to prepare. While double-digit SEC underdogs have printed money against the spread this season, I don’t think the Gators have enough on either side of the ball to keep this game close. I power rate Ole Miss as a 12-point favorite in this game, so I will lay it with the ‘Rebs – who are 3-1 ATS as road favorites of more than a touchdown.

Ole Miss vs Florida prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.5. 

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The noon slate brings us some ACC action, and we are here with a North Carolina Tar Heels vs Boston College Eagles prediction. This is projected to be a nasty weather game, with temperatures in the 40s, some rain and winds around 20 mph. It’s the kind of day that the big boys up front love and all the fast, skinny guys hate. UNC comes in as the favorite, riding a 3-game winning streak that has salvaged its season. Boston College needs to win one of its last 2 to get bowl eligible. The Eagles have had a tough draw as far as the schedule goes, and 4 losses in their last 5 games include trips to SMU and Virginia Tech as well as to Louisville. I am looking for the Eagles to potentially win this one, so I will take the points.

These teams are similar in a lot of ways. One similarity is that both have made mid-season changes at quarterback. That has also meant that both teams prefer to run the ball whenever they can, and they are in their better offensive mode when on the ground. For Carolina, that rushing attack is led by Omarion Hampton. He is a fantastic RB and he logged a 244-yard stat line just last week. For BC, the rushing attack is led by a veteran offensive line. Both defenses are better against the run than the pass, too, and in the rainy conditions this game should turn into a battle in the trenches. For me, I like the BC offensive line — and I like the motivation spot for the Eagles, especially on a nasty weather day.

North Carolina vs Boston College prediction: Boston College +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The SMU Mustangs are rolling and look primed to compete in the ACC championship game as things stand, but the Virginia Cavaliers stand in their way. The Cavaliers have faced an absolute gauntlet of a schedule recently as SMU marks the 4th top-20 opponent in Virginia’s last 5 games. During that stretch, the defense is giving up 35.75 points per game and I struggle to see how they’ll slow down the ponies. SMU ranks top-25 in total offense, EPA/dropback and 22nd in net points per drive on offense. Despite ranking outside of the top-60 in tempo, the Mustangs have been wildly efficient especially through the air which has led to consistent big plays downfield. SMU ranks top-16 in passing efficiency as well as 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays and I struggle to see how the hosts can match that production.

Virginia sits outside of the top-100 FBS teams in net points per drive and success rate per dropback. Furthermore, they’ve struggled to convert on 3rd and 4th downs and have especially struggled to convert in the red zone. Every possession matters for Virginia in this one and with a turnover-prone QB in Anthony Colandrea, any sort of turnover issues will make the hill of matching SMU’s offense turn into a mountain. With all things considered, I’ll take the Mustangs to continue to roll.

SMU -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Fresh off their first loss of the season, the Miami Hurricanes will look to rebound against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Hurricanes have fallen victim in the past month of starting off slow in games. They often will turn up the intensity in the second half and their talent and speed will overwhelm their opponent. That was not the case in their last game against Georgia Tech. Miami lost 28-23 on the road despite 348 yards passing and 3 TDs from Cam Ward. Once again, the strategy will be clear for Miami — to get off to a better start. The ‘Canes will have to do that against Wake Forest, which has lost its last 2 games. The Demon Deacons most recent setback was a 31-24 decision against North Carolina. Wake Forest was unable to slow down running back Omarion Hampton, allowing 244 yards rushing. Wake will need to put together a better defensive effort this week, especially with the starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier potentially out due to an injury.

Miami should be coming into this game fresh following a bye. The Hurricanes get an opportunity to test their offense against one of the worst defenses in the ACC. In Wake Forest’s last 2 losses, it has surrendered a combined total of 77 points to California and North Carolina. In total, the Demon Deacons give up 437.9 yards and 32.5 points per game this season. We have seen the Deacons struggle to create stops all season, and this week will be their toughest test against Miami. UM’s offense is explosive, but its defense leaves room for improvement. Miami has allowed 5.2 yards per play and 316.6 yards per game. If Wake Forest can limit turnovers, it should be able to find some points on the offensive side of the ball. I’m backing the over in this game, fully expecting Miami’s offense to put on a clinic in a bounce-back opportunity.

Wake Forest vs Miami prediction: Over 64.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The UMass Minutemen take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens on Saturday. UMass is 2-8 straight up and 4-5-1 against the spread. The Minutemen only have a preseason win total of 2.5, so with another win they will hit the over. Unfortunately, they aren’t going to get the win in this game. Georgia is 8-2 with a good chance at the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs are currently third in the SEC and are coming off a big win over Tennessee. The question is not whether Georgia will win this game but how much it will win by. The Bulldogs haven’t been great against the spread this year with a 3-7 ATS record, but this will be their first game against a non-Power 5 opponent. They did play Tennessee Tech, an FCS team, earlier this season but did not cover the spread in a 48-3 win.

The spread in this game is not nearly as high in this game, but the question remains if Georgia will call off the dogs or not. Last season the Dawgs had 2 games against non-Power 5 opponents in which they won 45-3 against Ball State and 49-21 against UAB. Even in their 15-0 season in 2022 they played Kent State and won 39-22 and did not cover the spread. Georgia needs to win this game, but they don’t need to win by 40. They have a rivalry game against Georgia Tech next week and still have a shot at the SEC championship, so they could be resting starters halfway through this one. UMass may not score in this game but could still cover the spread.

UMass vs Georgia prediction: UMass +42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 showdown of the week takes us to Tempe, where the weather is perfect and no one is worried about any winter storms, unlike so much of the rest of the country. Our BYU Cougars vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction takes us to a game with huge implications for the Big 12 championship. The winner of this game is a massive favorite to make it to the conference title game, where they have a chance to get into the playoffs. BYU is coming off their first loss of the season, but their hopes are not yet dashed. Arizona State is building off a road upset of Kansas State, and they have themselves on the verge of a great season. They say home field is worth 3 points in betting, but I think this Sun Devil team is just way better than BYU anyway.

Arizona State deserves your attention. Coming into the season, we thought this would be a bad team. They are not. We thought their defense would be bad; turns out, they are a top 50 defense, and they are particularly stout against the run (122 yards allowed per game), and they have done that against some run-heavy conference opponents. They have a quarterback with some serious moxie, and one of the most underrated RBs in the game. As for BYU, this team has been living on borrowed time for weeks. They were gifted a win over Utah 2 weeks ago. They shouldn’t have beaten Baylor. They were underdogs against UCF. They beat Kansas State because of one of the silliest 10-minute stretches in football. They barely beat a banged up Oklahoma State team. Sure, wins are wins, but this team shouldn’t be winning this much. I think the Sun Devils end the BYU story and steal the narrative for themselves on Saturday, and I am happy to lay the points with what I think is the far more talented team.

BYU vs Arizona State prediction: Arizona State -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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Despite having the 2nd-ranked rushing attack in FBS, the UCF Knights enter their matchup against West Virginia losing 6 of their last 7 games with the only win coming against a bottom-of-the-barrel Arizona squad. The primary reason for this being an unreliable, inconsistent defensive unit that simply can’t stop the pass. The Knights rank 92nd in defensive passing efficiency allowed and 96th in total passing yards allowed per game. They have struggled to pressure the QB all season, ranking 91st in total sacks, and have especially struggled to end drives, ranking 112th in 3rd/4th down success rate defensively. However you spin it, the Knights’ defense isn’t one to write home about and the Mountaineers’ quality passing attack should present the visitors with problems.

West Virginia ranks 21st in EPA/dropback and has been rather efficient offensively as a whole, ranking 34th in net points per drive. I expect West Virginia to attack ICF’s secondary early and often in this one which will open up scrambling opportunities for QB Garrett Greene who had 129 yards on the ground last time out. West Virginia’s defense hasn’t exactly been stellar, but the Mountaineers’ are much stronger against the run ranking 47th in EPA/rush which is essentially the only way UCF can move the ball consistently. With all things considered, I’ll back the underdogs to cover at home in this matchup.

West Virginia +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Throughout the second half of the 2023 college football season, I consistently bet on an Arizona team that I believed to be undervalued in the market. The Wildcats had been unlucky in some close, one possession games earlier in the year and were somewhat overlooked down the stretch, even as they continued to win games and cover spreads over the final 8 weeks of the campaign. I’ve been doing a similar thing with this Kansas team since the Jayhawks knocked off Houston back on October 19. Over the last 4 weeks, Kansas is 3-1 and 4-0 against the number, including massive victories over Iowa State and BYU in consecutive games. This week, the Jayhawks will look to play spoiler once again, as Kansas is set to take on a Colorado team that has surpassed all expectations this season, albeit with one of the easiest in-conference schedules of any team in the Big 12.

With multiple 40+ point outbursts over the past month, there’s a reason to be optimistic about Lance Leipold’s offense heading into Saturday’s contest against the Buffaloes. Jalon Daniels is playing at an elite level during this recent stretch (10 total touchdowns to just 2 interception), and there’s reason to be optimistic that this Kansas offense (8th in 3rd down success rate, 17th in success rate, 2nd in points per quality possession) will keep on rolling against a Buffaloes defense that has simply not faced a quarterback and offensive head coach of this caliber all season long. In fact, when Colorado did face a dual-threat quarterback that was in the upper echelon of the Big 12, the Buffaloes surrendered well over 400 yards of offense, including nearly 200 yards on the ground. Given that Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation thanks to Daniels and running back Devin Neal, this should be a challenging matchup for an improved (but largely untested) Colorado defensive front.

This Colorado team has gotten a ton of hype, and it’s largely been justified given the turnaround from a disappointing 2023 campaign. With that said, this will be one of the tougher matchups of the season for Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes passing offense. Kansas’ defense battled some key injuries earlier in the season, but the all-conference cornerback duo of Melo Dotson and Cobee Bryant present a tough matchup for the likes of Travis Hunter and LaJohntay Wester on the outside. The Jayhawks defense has struggled against the run, but Colorado isn’t the team that is going to take advantage of that weakness, as the Buffaloes are 107th in rushing success rate. Despite covering the number against Utah a week ago, we did see Colorado struggle to generate explosive plays downfield against the Utes strong secondary, particularly in the first 3 quarters. In fact, if Utah didn’t allow a punt return touchdown and generally had any sort of offense to speak of, that game ends up likely coming down to the wire. I was all over the Buffaloes in a great spot last week, but I can’t ignore getting a full field goal at home with a Kansas team that is still undervalued. 

Colorado vs Kansas prediction: Kansas +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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As we head down the home stretch of the college football season, Kentucky travels to Austin for a game that means little to Kentucky but a lot to Texas. My Kentucky Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns prediction starts with context and motivation. Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the SEC, and they would need to win their final two games against Texas and Louisville to reach bowl eligibility. Basically, the Cats are done. For Texas, the path to the playoffs is a clear one, and clearer for the Longhorns than for anyone else in the conference: win what should be an easy game against Kentucky at home, and then beat the rival Aggies. Texas has taken some criticism lately for quality of opponents, so we might see them trying to win big this week. Still, I think the best bet in this game is the under, which currently sits at 47.

Look, the Wildcats are just really bad on offense. Against SEC opponents, 20 is their highest scoring output, and they have consistently struggled against good defenses. They should find the Horns to be very inhospitable. On the other side, while the Texas offense is really dangerous and scores easily against most opponents, Kentucky hangs their hat on their defense. I’m not calling for the upset by any means, but Kentucky is certainly capable of keeping Texas off the scoreboard, at least better than most. I am taking the under on this game for 2 reasons: first, I have no faith in Kentucky to pull their own weight here, and second, the Wildcat defense should be good enough to keep Texas from covering this number all by themselves. I think there is very little chance that Kentucky can score enough to turn this into an up-and-down affair, and unless the Longhorns are just aiming for style points, this game should stay under. And, should Kentucky manage to hang around and threaten the upset, it would be because the game is in the 20-17 range. Give me the total under 47.

Kentucky vs Texas Prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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The Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) and the Michigan Wolverines (5-5) will meet for the first time since 2021 on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Wildcats enter this matchup following a 31-7 loss to Ohio State at Wrigley Field in Chicago, dropping them to 2-5 in conference – good for 16th in the Big Ten. For reference, their 2 conference wins were against Maryland and Purdue, the only 2 teams below them in the Big Ten standings. Michigan is off a bye, and while the Wolverines are 3-4 in the conference after taking home a national title last year, they can still somewhat salvage their season with a victory here to earn bowl eligibility before next week’s rivalry game at Ohio State. 

Michigan has obviously not performed to expectations this season, but I still consider the Wolverines to be in a much different class than Northwestern. The Wildcats allowed teams like Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana to run all over them, and Michigan is capable of replicating that success on the ground with its running back duo of Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards – who run behind an offensive line that is top 15 in stuff rate allowed outside of garbage time since Week 7. For reference, the Wildcats are outside the top 50 in stuff rate, opposing line yards and opposing rush success rate in that time. On the other side of the ball, Northwestern’s offense ranks 114th in PPA outside of garbage time since the middle of October, and the Wildcats have failed to surpass 14 points in all but 1 of their 6 games against teams currently in the top 40 in total defense. It is Michigan or pass on this Big Ten matchup, as I power rate the Wolverines as a 14-point favorite despite their struggles.

Northwestern vs Michigan prediction: Michigan Wolverines -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.  

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This line was as low as +10 on the lookahead but jumped out to nearly two touchdowns at the open earlier this week. Even though it’s ticked down a bit, I still think we’re getting a few points of value with the underdog in this Big Ten matchup. Over the last few weeks, I’ve repeatedly highlighted that the teams that are inside the top half of the College Football Playoff rankings don’t need to do anything other than win, and the rest will sort itself out. For a team like Penn State, style points don’t matter in its remaining games. And as we just saw with Texas against Arkansas and Oregon against Wisconsin a week ago, winning on the road in November is anything but easy for even the top teams in the sport. Add in the fact that Minnesota has had success historically at home against Penn State — including wins in each of the last 2 meetings in Minneapolis — and there are a ton of signs pointing to this game being the last truly difficult hurdle for James Franklin’s team to clear before the postseason.

The Gophers were a team that I was very happy to back against Maryland and Illinois, and are now a bit undervalued in the market following a disappointing loss at Rutgers. PJ Fleck quietly has a pretty solid offense on his hands (top 40 in success rate, 17th in 3rd/4th down success rate), led by a quarterback in Max Brosmer who has 18 total touchdowns to just 4 interceptions on the season. It’s going to be difficult for the Gophers offense to generate consistent success against a Penn State defense that is one of the better units in the nation. However, Minnesota is coming off a bye and should have a few tricks up its sleeve when it comes to 3rd down calls and some new wrinkles to keep the Nittany Lions defense on their toes. As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since the loss to Ohio State, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, Minnesota’s defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and a much maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Gophers are also 22nd in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Touchdowns turning into field goals is key when backing any underdog, so as long as Minnesota can get off the field on 3rd down, I feel pretty good about the Gophers chances to put a real scare into the Nittany Lions on Saturday.

Penn State vs Minnesota prediction: Minnesota +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5

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The Texas Tech Red Raiders will travel north to Oklahoma to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 conference game. Texas Tech is currently 6-4 with a record of 4-3 in conference. Their last game was a 41-27 loss against Colorado. The Red Raiders led this game early 13-0 in the 2nd quarter, but then lost all momentum. This game was closer in the end than the score entails. Colorado had a scoop and score in the final minute to push the lead to double digits. After a bye week since the loss, Texas Tech will get the chance to rebound against the Big 12’s last place team. This season has gone horribly wrong for the Cowboys. After starting 3-0, Oklahoma State has lost 7 straight games all in conference. They have looked uninspired in their last 3 games losing to Baylor by 10, Arizona State by 21, and TCU by 25.

The story for Oklahoma State this season has been any time their offense has been able to put up points and show a level of competitiveness, their defense gets in the way and can’t stop the opposing team. Oklahoma State has lost 4 games by 21 or more points this season because their defense has surrendered an average of nearly 500 yards a game and 31.9 points per game against them. This ranks them in second to last place in the conference in points allowed. The only team that is worse, the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech has allowed on average 35.1 points per game but have paired that will an explosive offense that averages 35.5 points per game. Quarterback Behren Morton and running back Tahj Brooks have proven to be a lethal dual threat for the Red Raiders offense. I just don’t feel confident backing them considering their defense and that this game will be played in Oklahoma. Instead, I’ll back the over. Both offenses have proven they can run or pass, and each defense has proven they can’t stop either.

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State prediction: Over 66 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Wisconsin Badgers threw their best punch against the Oregon Ducks last week. Wisconsin led 13-6 at home going into the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold on in the end, losing to the country number 1 ranked team 16-13. Wisconsin’s defense held Heisman hopeful Dillon Gabriel to only 218 yards passing and 1 interception. The Badgers needed a little more production offensively to pull off the upset, especially from their quarterback Braedyn Locke, who only threw for 96 yards. Wisconsin will hope they can turn a well-played game into a win this week against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska has lost their last 4 games. After getting blown out by Indiana, Nebraska lost 3 straight conference games by a one-score margin. Their last loss was 28-20 against USC. Dylan Raiola continued his struggles, throwing for only 191 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. During the current losing streak, the freshman quarterback has thrown 6 interceptions and only 2 touchdowns. Raiola has shown he has a bright future, but he still has some lessons to learn.

Saturday’s game will be important for both teams. Nebraska and Wisconsin both sit at 5 wins with only 2 games left. Each team needs to find 1 more win if they want to become bowl eligible in 2024. Nebraska falling short of 6 wins would be catastrophic considering the Cornhuskers started this season 5-1. Bad news for the Cornhuskers is their struggling quarterback will need to find his rhythm again against either a good Wisconsin defense or a good Iowa defense. Considering the Iowa game is going to be played on the road, Nebraska is going to play this game like it’s their last shot. It will be important for Nebraska to open the passing game with the run in this game. We have seen Wisconsin struggle defensively against the run this season, and if Nebraska can establish the run, it will open opportunities for Raiola. Raiola is a gunslinger who can make the big throw, but he needs to limit turnovers. Wisconsin’s offense has been vanilla this season and lacks explosiveness. Nebraska will always be in this game if they play conservatively. If head coach Matt Rhule can dial up some timely plays downfield, I think the Cornhuskers can lock in their 6th win of the season this week.

Wisconsin vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A few weeks ago, both Pitt and Louisville thought they had a real chance to win the ACC. Now, they find themselves in the middle of the pack. Both teams are bowl eligible, but otherwise, there is a real chance of a holiday letdown for these squads. As premature winter sets in across much of the country, temps will be in the 40s in Kentucky, and that, too, might play a factor on Saturday. I see a lot of reasons for this game to stay under the point total, and thus my Pitt Panthers vs Louisville Cardinals prediction is under 57.

Let’s start with Pitt. The Panthers have lost 4 straight games, and they may or may not be without the services of freshman breakout QB Eli Holstein. Holstein left with a head injury against Virginia two weeks ago, and he missed last week’s Clemson game. As of the time of this writing (Wednesday), he still had not been cleared to play, although my lean is that he likely will play. Still, he has left 2 of his last 3 games with injuries, and it might be time to protect the kid from himself. Without him, Pitt’s go-fast offense does not work as well, and it might not work great against a good Louisville defense anyway. On the Louisville side, the Cardinals are best when they run the ball first, but Pitt is a top-15 team against the run. This looks like a game that might favor the defenses, and I think both teams will struggle to reach 30 points. Give me the under in this spot.

Pitt vs Louisville Prediction: Under 57 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Missouri Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in an SEC matchup on Saturday. Missouri would like to think it has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but at 7-3 it’s probably out. The Tigers’ loss to South Carolina last week might have sealed their fate. They can still go to a good bowl game and get to a 9-win season with a win in this matchup. Mississippi State is at the bottom of the SEC with a 0-6 conference record and 2-8 overall. The Bulldogs have been struggling this season and the struggles will most likely continue through the end of the year. They still have 9th-ranked Ole Miss left after this week’s game against the 23rd-ranked team. It’s going to be an uphill climb for Mississippi State in this game, but it would love to play spoiler against an SEC opponent. 

Mississippi State has not won many games this season but it has covered spreads. The Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS but haven’t covered a spread under 10 all season. They have been covering big spreads against more talented opponents, but this one is not so big. Missouri has also been covering with a 6-4 ATS record on the season and has covered 4 of its last 5. Three of those last 4 have been under 10.5, as well. Missouri boasts the 17th-ranked defense in the country, allowing only 294.9 yards and 18.4 points per game. It has propelled the Tigers to win plenty of game, with a 7-3 record. They will almost certainly improve to 8 wins following this contest. Mississippi State just can not compete in the SEC this year. The Bulldogs have not won an SEC game and haven’t come close to winning an SEC game. Missouri is 11-3 straight up in its last 14 overall and 4-1 ATS in its last 5. I’m taking the Tigers to cover on the road against an inferior Mississippi State team. 

Missouri vs Mississippi State prediction: Missouri -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A Big 12 game in the middle of the pack brings us to our Baylor Bears vs Houston Cougars prediction. These two schools both have top-10 caliber basketball teams, but football has been something of a disappointment this fall. The Cougars have been in a rebuilding year, but they had won 3 out of 4 before falling on the road at Arizona last week. The Bears started slow, but after making a change at quarterback, they have taken off, logging 4 straight wins. What can we expect on Saturday? I am backing the better and hotter team in Baylor, and with a line set at -7.5, the books are daring us to back Houston. I don’t want to take that bait.

Houston is a one-sided team. That is, they have a terrific defense that ranks #28 in total yards allowed, but their offense is abysmal. In fact, their offense is one of the worst in Division I, and they average less than 300 yards per game. For the Cougars to win, they have to hold down the opponent and turn a game into a grind. Since making a quarterback change, the Baylor offense has taken off. Over the past 4 weeks, they have scored 59, 37, 38, and 49. Their offense is quick and balanced, and they use all 4 downs from nearly anywhere on the field. Houston should keep the Bears below the gaudy point totals of the past month, but unless the Cougar offense can muster something they haven’t shown all year, they won’t keep this one close. Baylor, by the way, would be in the conversation for the Big 12 title game if not for a crazy Hail Mary from Shedeur Sanders, so there is a strong chance that this team is better than the market thinks. This can be a good spot to capitalize on that.

Baylor vs Houston Prediction: Baylor -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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At this point in the season, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the College Football Playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot (although Tulane and Army aren’t too far behind). Given their strong resume to this point, the Broncos just need to win, and they won’t exactly need style points in order to keep their ranking stable and march toward a conference title and berth in the playoff. That line of thinking is important when considering Saturday’s matchup against a Wyoming team that is playing a bit better on both sides of the ball after a disastrous first half of the season.

While the Cowboys aren’t exactly the most difficult opponent remaining on Boise State’s regular season schedule, the weather figures to be a major factor in this game, as we can expect windy conditions and cooler temperatures on Saturday evening in Laramie. In a game where it just needs to win and isn’t worried about margin or style points, Boise State should turn to its ground game and all-world running back Ashton Jeanty to grind out scoring drives on the ground while wearing down a Wyoming defense that is 108th in opponent EPA per rush on the season. That game script is conducive to an under, especially since the Cowboys defense is surprisingly great at getting off the field on 3rd downs (11th in 3rd down success rate) and I can certainly see Boise State’s offense keeping things pretty vanilla with a potential rematch with UNLV in the conference title game just a few weeks away. 

The area of concern with this Boise State team has been in the secondary, and the Broncos did allow some explosive plays to Nick Nash and San Jose State’s passing offense a week ago. With that said, Wyoming doesn’t present anywhere near the same challenge with its passing game, as the Cowboys are a lowly 129th in passing success rate and 125th in EPA per pass. We shouldn’t expect many explosive plays from the Cowboys in this contest, which also bodes well for a game script that shades toward the under. Even though it’s unlikely that this Cowboys defense will be able to contain Jeanty, Maddux Madsen and the Boise State offense, this is still a game where the Broncos offense will likely throttle down in the second half, while also not surrendering many points on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s take the under in this Mountain West clash on Saturday.

Boise State vs Wyoming prediction: Under 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) and the Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) will meet for the first time as SEC foes under the lights in Norman on Saturday night. The Tide are riding a 3-game winning streak coming into this game, while Oklahoma has lost 4 straight conference games. The Sooners were idle last week, but there is likely a bad taste in their mouth after giving their Week 11 game away at Missouri. The Sooners led 23-16 with 2 minutes left, but Missouri scored a tying touchdown and then a go-ahead defensive touchdown – both in the last 63 seconds of the game. 

The strength of this Oklahoma team is on the defensive side of the ball, as the Sooners are top 25 in total defense and top 40 in scoring defense this season. Oklahoma’s defense also ranks top 10 nationally in success rate, as well as top 25 in opposing red zone conversion rate. More recently, the Sooners are top 20 in defensive PPA and top 35 in havoc generated while yielding less than 4 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 7. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma’s offense has left a lot to be desired – so much so that coach Brent Venables relieved Seth Littrell of his offensive coordinator duties about a month ago. While there hasn’t been too much of an improvement offensively under the Oklahoma interim coordinator, Joe Jon Finley and the Sooners have had an extra week to prepare and scheme-up some ideas for the offense this week. With this game being at home and under the lights in Oklahoma, it seems like an advantageous situational spot for the Sooners – who need just 1 more win for bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Alabama comes into this game off a win over an FCS team with rival Auburn on deck. The Tide probably will win this game outright, but the Sooners should have enough on the defensive end to stay inside the number in a motivated spot on their home turf. 

Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +13.5 (-106) at the time of publishing. Playable to +13. 

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In a matchup between Army and Notre Dame late in the season, few would expect that the Black Knights are actually the team that is undefeated between these two programs. Army has been one of the best stories in the sport this season, exceeding all expectations thanks to another terrific coaching job from Jeff Monken and a tremendous year from quarterback Bryson Daily. With 28 total touchdowns to just 1 interception on the season, Daily has been the best quarterback for this Army program in decades, and he even has a chance to play his way into the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York if the Black Knights are able to win on Saturday and complete an undefeated dream season by knocking off Tulane in the AAC title game and beating Navy the following week. And while the metrics are outstanding for Army on both sides of the ball (2nd in offensive success rate, 1st in 3rd/4th down success rate on offense, 8th in points per drive allowed), much of that can be attributed to the Black Knights playing a very weak schedule to this point, even by the standards of the AAC. It goes without saying that this is easily the toughest game of the season for Army to this point, and it comes against a team that has already proven it can dominate and cover large spreads against service academies.

Notre Dame looked to be a pretty inconsistent team over the first month of the season, but the Fighting Irish have rounded into form over the past 5 games, having beaten their opponents by an average of nearly 34 points during this stretch. It’s as dominant as this program has ever looked under head coach Marcus Freeman, and Saturday’s matchup is one that is very favorable to his team. After all, Notre Dame played a red-hot Navy squad just a few weeks back and completely demolished Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen for the second consecutive season, holding Navy’s offense to just 14 points and forcing a whopping 6 turnovers in a 51-14 bludgeoning at MetLife Stadium. Having already seen — and excelled against — an option style offense from a service academy, this stout Fighting Irish defense (1st in Early Downs EPA, 1st in EPA per dropback, 4th in opponent points per drive) should consistently live in the backfield and force Army into some extremely difficult and uncomfortable 3rd down situations. On the other side of the ball, the Black Knights have had consistent trouble defending the rush this season, sitting at 82nd in success rate allowed on the ground. That doesn’t bode well against a Notre Dame offense that is looking to keep the ball on the ground (6th in EPA per rush) and establish the line of scrimmage. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw yet another blowout win for the Fighting Irish in a massive hype spot against an undefeated, ranked opponent.

Army vs Notre Dame prediction: Notre Dame -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After starting the season 7-0, 2 straight losses for the Iowa State Cyclones put a damper on their dreams for this season of a College Football Playoff appearance. The 2 losses were against Texas Tech at home and Kansas on the road. This team proved that it could bounce back last week when it defeated Cincinnati 34-17. Quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 234 yards and 1 touchdown in the victory. Up next are the 4-6 Utah Utes. Utah started its season 4-0 but hasn’t won since due to a plethora of injuries. The Utes’ last loss was a 49-24 defeat to the 17th-ranked Colorado Buffalos. Isaac Wilson, freshman quarterback and brother of NFL quarterback Zach Wilson, is the current starting B for the Utes. Wilson has had trouble avoiding the turnover bug this season with 11 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns.

Utah will need to overcome a host of injuries if it wants to play spoiler in this game. Some key injuries for the Utes include starting quarterback Cam Rising, tight end Brant Kuithe, receiver Money Parks and plenty more. The main concern for the Utes during this 6-game losing streak has been turnovers — 21 in total this season. This will play out well for Iowa State, which has 18 takeaways. Despite the struggles offensively, Utah has always proven to be a tough team to beat on its home field this season because of its defense. Iowa State’s offense has slowed down near the end of this season and I believe playing in altitude and on the road in conference will cause more problems for the Cyclones. I like for these teams to stay under the total.

Iowa State vs Utah prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texas A&M Aggies take on the host Auburn Tigers in an SEC battle on Saturday. The Aggies are on the path to an SEC Championship berth if they can win their next 2 games. That would also come with a playoff berth and first-round bye — if they win it — so their next 2 games are very important. But Auburn would love to play spoiler. The Tigers have a 4-6 record this season and need wins against 15th-ranked A&M this week and 7th-ranked Alabama next week to become bowl eligible. That is a tall task for a team that has won 1 conference game all season. There is a lot at stake for both programs in this game.

These 2 teams are in similar spots. Both have their biggest games of the season against their biggest rivals next week, but both need a win right now. Auburn seems to be more locked in than A&M, whose head coach — Mike Elko — said “Our focus is single-handedly on Texas…I mean Auburn,” in a press conference earlier this week. Both of these teams also lean heavily on their defenses. The Aggies have the 33rd-ranked defense allowing only 21.2 points and 359.3 yards per game. The Tigers have the 23rd-ranked defense, allowing only 19.2 points and 314.4 yards per contest. Defense travels, but the difference-maker in this game will likely be offense. Texas A&M features the 39th-ranked offense, while Auburn has the 72nd-ranked offense. Since Marcel Reed has started at quarterback for the Aggies, they are 5-1 with their only loss coming against South Carolina — when the Gamecocks ran all over them for 286 rushing yards. This was mostly due to their mobile quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, but the good news for the Aggies is that Auburn QB Payton Thorne is not mobile. Thorne has 93 carries for 203 yards for an average of 2.2 ypc. Compare that to Sellers, who has 126 carries for 436 yards and had 106 against A&M. Texas A&M may be looking ahead to its next game against Texas, but so is Auburn. The Aggies’ should travel, so give me A&M.

Texas A&M vs Auburn prediction: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The LSU Tigers have dropped 3 straight after a 6-1 start to the season, and Brian Kelly and co. will have to prove their worth against a frisky Vanderbilt squad coming off a bye week. Regardless of the Cinderella-esque season Vanderbilt has had and regardless of LSU’s skid, the Tigers are still the much better team from a talent and coaching standpoint. LSU outplayed Florida in its most recent loss in essentially every offensive category aside from points scored being that the Tigers struggled to finish drives. Vanderbilt’s defense had a rough go last time out against South Carolina and hasn’t been the best at ending drives, ranking 85th in 3rd/4th down success rate defensively and 72nd in red zone defense. 

Furthermore, LSU ranks 11th in EPA/dropback and should have no issue moving the ball against the Commodores’ 106th ranked defense in terms of defensive success rate against the pass. Diego Pavia and the Commodores offense was electric in the upset over Alabama, but the unit hasn’t quite looked the same since averaging just 18.4 points per game in the 5 weeks since. Disregarding the optics of how these two teams’ seasons have panned out, I’ll rely on the Tigers’ talent in Death Valley and take LSU to cover.

LSU -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Our Cincinnati Bearcats vs Kansas State Wildcats prediction takes us to the Little Apple on Saturday evening. The Bearcats come to town riding a 3-game losing streak, and breaking that streak on the road at Kansas State is a tall order. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have lost 2 straight (at Houston, Arizona State), and those losses have been season killers. Once thought to be the favorite to win the Big 12, Kansas State is now out of that picture. The question for this game is whether that has sapped their motivation, or if they will muster some pride and bounce back? I am betting on the latter, and I am playing the Wildcats -8.5.

The problem for K-State in the past two losses has been turnovers. They have given the ball up 5 times in 2 games, and that has been their undoing. If they take care of the football, they should be able to move the ball and score against Cincinnati. On the other side, the Bearcats have really fallen apart of late. Last week, for example, they could not muster any passing attack to speak of against Iowa State. If you can’t throw the ball effectively against Kansas State, you are in trouble, because K-State is 9^th in the country in rushing yards allowed, at just over 101 yards per game. That is how I think this game is most likely to play out—Cincinnati will struggle to run the ball, and when they can’t run the ball effectively, their passing attack will not be able to pick up the slack, thus allowing Kansas State to pull away. Give me the Wildcats to bounce back here.

Cincinnati vs Kansas State Prediction: Kansas State -8.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Virginia Tech Hokies are in an interesting spot entering their road matchup against the Duke Blue Devils. Coming off the bye week, both QB Kyron Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten are listed as questionable at the time of writing coming off an abysmal outing against Clemson last time out. The Blue Devils’ defense is on par with that of the Tigers and I don’t expect the Hokies to find more success this time around — especially with lingering injuries to key players. Duke ranks top 33 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback and has been excellent on 3rd/4th down success (13th in FBS) defensively. 

On the contrary, Virginia Tech ranks 94th in 3rd/4th down success rate offensively and has struggled to finish drives. The Hokies’ defense has found success when its able to generate pressure on the QB, ranking top 10 in sacks this season. However, the Blue Devils’ offensive line ranks top 25 in pass blocking and should provide Maalik Murphy plenty of time to make plays. The Hokies are in a confusing phase of the season and are hard to pin at the moment, whereas we know exactly what we’re getting with the Blue Devils. I’ll take the home team to cover.

Virginia Tech vs Duke prediction: Duke +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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