College Football Picks

The 2024 American Athletic Conference Championship runs through West Point, New York as the Army Black Knights will host the Tulane Green Wave – who will make their 3rd consecutive AAC Title appearance. Army finished the season with a sterling 10-1 overall record, and its lone loss was out-of-conference in South Bend against Notre Dame. Tulane finished 9-3 with 2 losses to power conference opponents and 1 conference loss, which was at home last week against Memphis. It was the first time in 4 weeks that the Green Wave allowed more than 6 points. 

The total in the AAC Championship is one of the lowest of the weekend for good reason. Tulane and Army are both bottom 5 in pace of play this season with top 10 rush rates outside of garbage time since Week 9. Stopping the run is going to be crucial to win this game, much less cover the spread – and Tulane seems more equipped than Army in that aspect. Despite similar strength of schedules, Tulane’s defense has been much stronger against the run than Army’s this season. The Green Wave are top 20 in opposing PPA per rush and rush success rate allowed this year, as well as top 30 in stuff rate. Meanwhile, Army is outside the top 85 in each of the aforementioned metrics. For what it’s worth, I also trust Tulane’s passing game more than Army’s despite Darian Mensah’s 15 turnover-worthy plays. Mensah is a productive passer with arguably the most talented group of wide receivers in the conference, and Army’s Bryson Daily is not exactly devoid of mistakes despite throwing just 1 interception – as he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the AAC outside of Charlotte’s quarterbacks (7.7%). That figures to be an issue against a Tulane defense that is top 35 in havoc generated since Week 9. 

Playing a championship game on the road is not easy, but Tulane has excelled away from home – winning and covering every road game since their loss at Oklahoma in mid-September. The Green Wave have been one of the best teams in the country at finishing drives in recent weeks, and coach Jon Sumrall has been very good at getting his teams back on track after a loss in his short career as a head coach – which provides me with the extra confidence I need to lay points on the road with the Green Wave in the AAC Championship. 

Tulane vs Army prediction: Tulane -4.5 (-112) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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We could be in for one of the best games of the season on Friday, as the UNLV Rebels will head to the blue turf to take on the Boise State Broncos in what is arguably the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history to this point. This is the game of the year in the Group of 5, as both teams would almost certainly be selected as the Group of 5 automatic qualifier into the College Football Playoff if they were able to win this one. While most college football fans are likely familiar with Boise State, this UNLV team has been excellent all season long, including a recent stretch of games where the Rebels have looked absolutely dominant, while Boise State has stumbled a bit through the last month of conference play. Therefore, I expect the Rebels to be the sharp side in this game, but given that Boise State was just laying 4 points in Las Vegas when these teams played 5 weeks ago, I just can’t get there with the Broncos as a 3.5-point favorite at home in what is arguably the biggest game in program history for both sides. 

Instead of targeting the spread, I’ll be taking a look at the total and leaning toward the under in this contest. The first matchup between these teams was extremely even, as Boise State won the yardage battle, but UNLV was better in terms of yards-per-play. There were also some key plays that led to quick scoring drives, including a turnover that led to a Boise State 7-yard touchdown drive late in the game. The Broncos were also 4-for-4 on 4th down, which certainly extended drives and led to points. There was a lot of variance in the first meeting and the game still only finished with 53 total points. With that in mind, the current number of 59 is a bit too inflated when both of these defenses are excellent on early downs (21st and 22nd in early downs EPA respectively) and showed the ability to disrupt the opposing offense in that previous meeting. All-world running back Ashton Jeanty was held to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry in the first meeting, a game where his longest rush was 16 yards. While Jeanty was banged up in that contest, the Rebels still have the blueprint for how to contain the Heisman hopeful and force Maddux Madsen to beat them instead.

As for UNLV’s offense, the Rebels are led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has 26 total touchdowns and has accounted for more than 2,500 yards of offense this season. The Rebels should keep the ball on the ground against a Boise defense that generates pressure and gets after the quarterback better than nearly every other team in the country. This creates a game script that should be conducive to an Under, and it certainly helps matters that both teams could be a bit tight in a game of this magnitude.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: Under 59 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 58.5.

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The Big 12 Championship game will be played in Arlington in AT&T Stadium, and it brings us a matchup no one expected when the season opened. Our Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction is a do-or-die game for both teams, as the only path into the CFP is to win this game. Iowa State comes in on a 3-game winning streak, most recently beating Kansas State in a cold game to end the season. Arizona State has won 5 in a row, and they seem to just get better each week. I expect this game to be a battle, and so do the books, setting this line at -2 for the Sun Devils. Normally I would pounce on a number like that, but this might be a spot where paying a little extra juice to take the straight Money Line is worth it. My Iowa State vs Arizona State pick is Arizona State on the Money Line at -130.

These two teams match strengths and weaknesses well. Iowa State is more effective throwing the ball than running it, and ASU is better against the run than the pass. I expect the Cyclones to go nowhere on the ground, and they will be forced out of balance to throw more. On the other side, the opposite is true. Iowa State is #3 in the nation in passing yards allowed, but they are 96^th against the run. The Sun Devils are 24^th in the country in rushing attack, and middle of the road passing. Both teams will be able to play to their offensive strengths. That also means that if Iowa State gets ahead by more than one score, the Sun Devils will be in trouble; but if ASU builds a lead, Iowa State might still be able to catch up. Overall, I think this Arizona State team is way better than people give them credit for, and I love what Kenny Dillingham is doing there. I expect the Sun Devils to win a close battle, and I am really hoping it doesn’t come down to a late field goal—remember, this is the coach who called for open tryouts for a placekicker earlier in the season. Still, give me the human battering ram Cam Skattebo to bully his team to victory and into the playoffs. Sun Devils win.

Iowa State vs Arizona State prediction: Arizona State ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In what could be the best game of the weekend, the Oregon Ducks will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game on Saturday from Lucas Oil Stadium. I’ve had a really good feel for both of these teams throughout Big Ten play, and both sides do have certain matchup advantages over the opponent in this game. With that said, I projected this game closer to 4.5, so I do see some value with the Ducks now that we’re starting to see some cheaper prices on Oregon -3 in the market. Much has been made of James Franklin’s struggles against elite competition during his tenure at Penn State, and we saw the Nittany Lions once again falter in a good spot against Ohio State as short underdogs back in November. Penn State hasn’t won a game outright as an underdog since September of 2021 against Wisconsin, having dropped 9 straight since that win. Against top-5 opponents in his coaching career, Franklin is 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the number. And while I do think that this Penn State roster and coaching staff make up the strongest team this program has had in years, this is still the best opponent they will have faced all season, and it’s in a high-pressure spot to boot.

Oregon used the bye week to get healthy after 8 straight Big Ten games, and a 49-point outburst against Washington at home was just what the doctor ordered a week ago. The Ducks offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 5 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season. Dillon Gabriel has consistently played his best football in the biggest moments, and it’s clear that having a veteran leader at the quarterback position is a difference maker for this unit. Penn State’s defense certainly presents a unique challenge for Gabriel and the Ducks offense, but offensive coordinator Will Stein should have plenty of tricks up his sleeve after keeping things purposefully vanilla over the past month or so. It certainly helps matters that the Oregon offensive line is the best unit that Abdul Carter and the Nittany Lions defensive front will have faced to this point. Additionally, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson is massive for this offense, as the Ducks averaged over 3 points per drive with Johnson in the lineup over the first 9 games this season. Without his top target on the field against Maryland and Wisconsin, Gabriel and the Oregon offense only averaged 2.09 points per drive, with an explosive pass plate rate of just 9.2% (compared to 19.2% with Johnson in the lineup).

As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since a loss to Ohio State earlier this month, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, the Oregon defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 5 in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and the much maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Ducks are also 10th in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Additionally, Oregon’s defense ranks 5th in pressure rate on the season, and what’s even more impressive is that the Ducks are able to get after the quarterback without blitzing. In fact, Lanning’s defense is ranked 8th in the nation in pressure to blitz rate, which should help the Ducks consistently devote more attention to slowing down all-world tight end Tyler Warren while the likes of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch get after the quarterback. With the dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back, the Nittany Lions should be able to have success on the ground in this game against a very solid (but not elite) Ducks run defense. With that said, as long as Oregon can get off the field on pivotal 3rd downs (10th in 3rd and 4th down success rate), I feel pretty good about the Ducks defense to win when it matters most. After all, this unit won the game against Ohio State back in October, and they’ll step up once again on the big stage to claim a Big Ten Championship.

Penn State vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5 (-105). 

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The Clemson Tigers take on the SMU Mustangs in the ACC Championship game. One team was expected to be here and the other was not, but neither got here in the way we expected. Clemson snuck in after Miami lost on Saturday despite losing themselves on Saturday. They finished the season 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. That also put them below their preseason win total of 9.5. The winner of this game will get a berth into the College Football Playoff but the loser, especially Clemson, could be out. SMU has rolled the entire season besides an 18-15 loss to BYU early in the season. They also did not play 3 of the top 5 teams in the ACC or Notre Dame, so some have claimed their easy schedule got them here, but they have still won the games in front of them. This will be their toughest test of the season and again a loss could keep them out of the playoff but a win is an automatic entry. 

Clemson rolled through their season after their opening loss to Georgia until they hit Louisville late in the season and then a loss in a rivalry game against South Carolina. Some would argue they did not play a strong schedule besides their losses. SMU has a similar argument against them since they avoided most of the top ACC teams, but they beat everyone who was in front of them besides one team, which is more than Clemson can say.

Both teams have high-powered offenses with Clemson ranking 14th and SMU ranking 6th, and both teams have average defenses with Clemson ranking 57th and SMU ranking 39th. They are very even on paper which is why instead of picking a side I am eyeing the total. Clemson averages 36.3 points per game and SMU averages 39.9 points. SMU has hit the over in 6 of their 10 games this year and with these 2 high-powered offenses, I like the Over. Neither team’s defense has been great this season and they will be playing on turf in Charlotte. Look to the Over with these top-15 offenses. 

Clemson vs SMU prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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