NFL Picks

The Seattle Seahawks will be trying to remain in playoff contention when they visit the Chicago Bears for a Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 17. Despite 2 consecutive losses, the Seahawks are not playing poorly. Those setbacks came against Green Bay and Minnesota — the latter by only 3 points — and they had previously won 4 in a row. Seattle has struggled to run the ball, but it is facing a Chicago defense that has allowed 134.1 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per attempt. If Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet can establish the ground attack, that should open things up for Geno Smith.

Chicago’s season began with big expectations and also with a 4-2 record, but it has turned into an unmitigated disaster. The Bears came out of their bye week with a Hail Mary loss to Washington and it’s safe to say that they never recovered. They are in the midst of a 9-game losing streak and their 3 most recent setbacks have come by margins of 25, 18 and 17 points. The fact that 2 of their starting offensive linemen are out certainly doesn’t help matters. Count on Seattle winning this one by at least a field goal.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Seahawks -3 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Keenan Allen had his best game as a Bear last week (9 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD), but otherwise, Chicago’s offense does not inspire much confidence. Caleb Williams has underwhelmed as the #1 overall pick even though he has been picked off only 5 times during his rookie campaign. Williams’ rushing numbers have been down a bit over the past month, leaving the Bears’ attack to be increasingly less dynamic. The Bears were never much of an offensive juggernaut to begin with, too. Fortunately for the home team, it is decent defensively against the pass — having surrendered the 4th-fewest scores through the air this year (17). Smith also hasn’t set the world on fire in 2024; he barely has more touchdown passes than interceptions (17 to 15). Although the Seahawks should take care of business on Thursday, it probably won’t be due to some kind of offensive outburst. I wish the total was a little bit higher, but even at 43.5, I like the under.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The weather will be good in Foxborough this weekend, and that’s obviously good news for the visiting Los Angeles Chargers (even if it will still be a bit cold by their LA standards). It’s safe to say that they have a great chance of clinching a playoff berth when they visit the lowly New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 9-6 and currently occupies the second wild-card spot in the AFC. Although the Bolts got blown out by the Buccaneers in Week 15, that is clearly an aberration as opposed to the rule. Los Angeles bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Denver this past Thursday and has won 6 of its last 9 contests. Its other 2 losses during this stretch are 1-possession setbacks against Baltimore and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, New England is 3-12 and has lost 5 in a row. 8 of its last 11 setbacks have come by margins larger than Saturday’s 4-point spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been decent, but a once-promising defense has taken a sizable step back of late. The Patriots have allowed at least 24 points in 5 consecutive contests, including 30 or more twice during this stretch. They were without 2 starters in the secondary (Jabrill Peppers and Marcus Jones) during last week’s loss at Buffalo and that could be the case again when the Chargers come to town. Facing a woeful opponent and playing on extra rest, Los Angeles should be expected to win and cover this weekend.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Chargers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Chargers’ offense rebounded from a couple of lackluster performances to pin 34 points on Denver in Week 16. They averaged 6.2 yards per play, Justin Herbert completed 74.2 percent of his passes and Gus Edwards racked up 4.9 yards per carry to go along with his 2 touchdowns. Herbert’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 18-to-3 and he has also rushed for a pair of TDs. No wonder Harbaugh loves him so much! Herbert and the rest of the offense should be poised for success against a potentially depleted New England defense that has imploded down the stretch.

If there is any good news for the Patriots, it’s that their offense has improved since Maye took over as QB1. The #3 overall pick threw 2 interceptions in 2 of his first 4 starts but has since gone 6 consecutive games without a multi-interception performance. New England has scored at least 15 points in 10 straight, including more than 20 on 5 occasions during this stretch. Both teams should be in good shape offensively on Saturday and the weather won’t be a hindrance. I like the Over in this spot.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Over 42.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.0.

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Traditionally over the final few weeks of the NFL season, teams that are in positions where they need to win are often overpriced against teams who have “nothing” to play for. These are always situational spots where I’m going to back the underdog, and that is once again the case this week, as the Arizona Cardinals are in prime position to potentially spoil the Los Angeles’ Rams season on Saturday. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention following a loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago, while the Rams went into New York and somehow won and covered against the Jets, despite only registering 242 total yards and 19 points. And while Sean McVay is 30-18-1 ATS against NFC West opponents — including 12-3-1 ATS against the Cardinals — the Rams have still benefited from catching opponents in great scheduling spots and have 5 straight wins by 1 possession. That sets up nicely for Arizona to keep things close in this divisional showdown.

Much has been made of the Rams’ success on offense since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup, and for good reason. After all, Los Angeles now ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate on offense over the last 2 months. However, the Cardinals’ defense is also much improved from where it was a season ago, with Arizona sitting at 6th in EPA per pass on defense over that same time frame. Therefore, even though Matthew Stafford and company should put that defense to the test on Saturday, I expect Arizona to hold up nicely and hold this Rams offense to a reasonable point total. As for the Cardinals’ offense, Kyler Murray has regressed in recent weeks, but the Arizona passing attack should still succeed against a Rams pass defense that is 23rd in EPA per pass and 25th in passing success rate allowed. Let’s back the Cardinals to keep this NFC West clash within a touchdown.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Cardinals +7.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Games involving the Rams have tended to skew toward the Over when Los Angeles’ struggling defense meets an offense that is capable of stretching them vertically downfield. While Arizona has plenty of issues at the moment, the Cardinals are still able to score, and that was apparent when matched up against the likes of the Panthers and Patriots defenses in recent weeks. There’s no reason to suggest that Arizona wouldn’t be able to get to at least 24 points in this contest, which sets up nicely for a game that will be played in the upper 40s and low 50s in a weather-controlled indoor environment at SoFi Stadium. Both of these defenses are inside the bottom 10 in success rate allowed (SumerSports), and these offenses should be able to move the ball with sustained success on Saturday. Let’s get to the window with the Over at the current number.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Over 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times this season. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game and like their chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game and the Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.

Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, but the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Titans +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Despite both teams being in incredibly rough shape, we should see some points scored in this one. As mentioned previously, the Titans have allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL and that has been on full display in recent weeks, giving up 42, 37 and 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did hold the Jags to 10 points last time, we should see some improvement from Jacksonville as that game was Mac Jones’ first start and he has since settled into his spot. He led the Jags offense to putting 25 points on the Jets a couple of weeks ago and they should see some success here.

Further, Mason Rudolph has been a clear upgrade since taking over from Will Levis and the experienced QB should be able to penetrate a Jaguars defense that has been woeful against the pass. The Titans actually rank in the top half of the league in passing touchdowns, and with plenty of points scored in Rudolph’s last 2 starts, he should have some success in this one.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Over 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards. 

That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Two basic elements are a part of every handicap – 1) an evaluation of each team and 2) an evaluation of the line itself. The latter typically means more. In this case, the number is telling us that Atlanta vs Washington will be a higher-scoring game. The dynamics of both programs don’t necessarily agree. On Washington’s side, the market hasn’t caught up to their proclivity to create “overs.” The Commanders are 10-5 to the over, including overs in 5 of their last 7 contests. The Falcons are the exact opposite– 10-5 to the under,  including unders in 6 of their last 7 contests. So what gives in this matchup? From an outsider’s perspective, one might consider an over. After all, Washington QB Jayden Daniels is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Falcons just got an upgrade with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their offense generated 35 points and 329 yards in his first start. Points are on their way, right? Not so fast.

We like Penix and his potential to succeed on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Washington is sneaky-good against the pass. They’re 4th in sack percentage, 6th in opponent completion percentage and 4th in opponent passing yards per game (185.5). In a playoff atmosphere, we think Penix will hold his own, but that doesn’t mean he’ll explode and have a massively productive game. After all, against a porous Giants’ secondary, Atlanta was mostly conservative, choosing to run on 38 of 65 plays (58%). Washington isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should grant the Falcons a chance to play ball-control and keep-away from Daniels.

On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, a huge part of why their battles have averaged 52 points per game this season, but Atlanta’s resistance is better than you might think. The Falcons are 9th in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, 2 metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ awesome performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders’ offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with a thrower who’s only starting in his second NFL game. Maybe Daniels and Penix put on a show. From where we’re sitting, particularly with the nerves of the playoffs looming and the need for both programs to keep winning, this total is a tad too high.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Before the season started, NFL schedule-makers must’ve been salivating at this matchup, a rematch of the NFC Championship game right before the playoffs. Many might have predicted that this would be a battle for the #1 seed right before January, and a moment for the Lions to get their revenge. Now, the game looks and feels wildly different, although oddsmakers are still positioning themselves with caution, and with respect for the downtrodden Niners. If any one week served as a microcosm for San Francisco’s season, it was Week 16. San Francisco flew to Miami to face a struggling Dolphins squad last Sunday, an outfit that has little chance of even making the postseason. It was a tight contest throughout, but as we’ve gotten used to seeing from the Niners this season, they flailed in the second half. They also only gained 81 total yards on the ground, a consequence of a very injured backfield and offensive line. On Monday, it was announced that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will miss the final 2 games of the season, further adding to the slew of injuries across San Francisco’s roster. They’ve only covered the spread once in their past 7 contests, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Lions, meanwhile, returned to form. After a loss in Week 15 where they allowed the Bills to score 48 points, the Bears were the perfect mince-meat for the hungry Lions. It showed on Sunday. Chicago eventually punched back, but as usual it was too little, too late. Detroit gained 475 yards and had the hapless Bears chasing them for the whole contest. Another big win for the Lions and 2 games remain before they can secure the NFC’s #1 seed. The only reason why we’d consider the 49ers is that Detroit has a look-ahead matchup next Sunday that could decide the NFC North. If the Vikings end up losing on Sunday (4:25 pm ET) to the Packers, that would place Detroit a full game ahead of Minnesota, so the Lions would have a chance to clinch the #1 seed and NFC North with a win at San Francisco. Either way, a Dan Campbell led-roster will undoubtedly come to play, with vengeance on their minds. And, based on 16 weeks of evidence, we simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or juice to hold them back.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Opposing offenses are clearly starting to figure out the Lions’ defensive flaws and woes from injury, a big reason why super-high scoring has been paralleling every game with Dan Campbell’s program. Over the past 3 weeks, Lions games have averaged 69 points per game (a staggering 206 points in total), a result of above-average offenses playing catch-up, or if you’re the Bills, out-pacing the Lions’ juggernaut offense. And Detroit hasn’t slowed down one bit. They’re 1st in points per game (33), and top-5 in every major offensive category except for 4th-down conversion rate, where they’re 6th. A banged-up Niners’ defense is no match for the energy and output that Detroit can bring on a week-to-week basis, and the Lions should have extra fuel on Monday night, for reasons we mentioned in the spread writeup.

On the other side, it’s amazing to see how far the Niners have fallen, especially on defense. They still hold their own offensively, boasting a top-4 mark in yards per play and gaining 366 yards per game (8th), but their defense has devolved significantly. While they limit teams somewhat (5th in opponent yards per play, 5.1), they’re a defense that bends and breaks all the time. They rank 24th in opponent 3rd-down conversions and they’re even worse at preventing enemies from scoring touchdowns in the red zone (30th). Recently, against similarly built, elite opponents (Chiefs, Bills, Packers), they’ve permitted a disgusting 33.3 points per game. This might have been a hard-hitting, pre-playoff battle if situations were different, but we see little evidence against the reality that this contest will proceed how most of them have for both of these franchises this season.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Over 50.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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