NFL Picks

The Seattle Seahawks will be trying to remain in playoff contention when they visit the Chicago Bears for a Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 17. Despite 2 consecutive losses, the Seahawks are not playing poorly. Those setbacks came against Green Bay and Minnesota — the latter by only 3 points — and they had previously won 4 in a row. Seattle has struggled to run the ball, but it is facing a Chicago defense that has allowed 134.1 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per attempt. If Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet can establish the ground attack, that should open things up for Geno Smith.

Chicago’s season began with big expectations and also with a 4-2 record, but it has turned into an unmitigated disaster. The Bears came out of their bye week with a Hail Mary loss to Washington and it’s safe to say that they never recovered. They are in the midst of a 9-game losing streak and their 3 most recent setbacks have come by margins of 25, 18 and 17 points. The fact that 2 of their starting offensive linemen are out certainly doesn’t help matters. Count on Seattle winning this one by at least a field goal.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Seahawks -3 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Keenan Allen had his best game as a Bear last week (9 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD), but otherwise, Chicago’s offense does not inspire much confidence. Caleb Williams has underwhelmed as the #1 overall pick even though he has been picked off only 5 times during his rookie campaign. Williams’ rushing numbers have been down a bit over the past month, leaving the Bears’ attack to be increasingly less dynamic. The Bears were never much of an offensive juggernaut to begin with, too. Fortunately for the home team, it is decent defensively against the pass — having surrendered the 4th-fewest scores through the air this year (17). Smith also hasn’t set the world on fire in 2024; he barely has more touchdown passes than interceptions (17 to 15). Although the Seahawks should take care of business on Thursday, it probably won’t be due to some kind of offensive outburst. I wish the total was a little bit higher, but even at 43.5, I like the under.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The duo of Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams have left a ton on the table in their rookie seasons. Odunze has been targeted 95 times but only has 51 catches on his resume. He leads the Bears receiving room in aDOT by a wide margin, but over 60% of his targets have been deemed uncatchable – That leads the league. At a price of +295 for Odunze to score a touchdown, we’re taking a chance on the talented rookie tandem to connect for the 4th time this season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore jump has been one of the best stories in football this season. After a rookie season with 628 yards on 63 catches, Smith-Njigba left much to be desired. He answered the call and made the jump to top 15 wide receiver status. He ranks in the top 10 in receptions, yards, and targets this season. His 24% target share headlines the wide receiver room in Seattle, which has turned into an elite connection with quarterback Geno Smith.

Heading into Thursday Night, Kenneth Walker III will be sidelined in the run game. Even with one of the best backup running backs in the game, Zach Charbonnet, look for Smith to continue to look Smith-Njigba’s way.

The weather will be good in Foxborough this weekend, and that’s obviously good news for the visiting Los Angeles Chargers (even if it will still be a bit cold by their LA standards). It’s safe to say that they have a great chance of clinching a playoff berth when they visit the lowly New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 9-6 and currently occupies the second wild-card spot in the AFC. Although the Bolts got blown out by the Buccaneers in Week 15, that is clearly an aberration as opposed to the rule. Los Angeles bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Denver this past Thursday and has won 6 of its last 9 contests. Its other 2 losses during this stretch are 1-possession setbacks against Baltimore and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, New England is 3-12 and has lost 5 in a row. 8 of its last 11 setbacks have come by margins larger than Saturday’s 4-point spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been decent, but a once-promising defense has taken a sizable step back of late. The Patriots have allowed at least 24 points in 5 consecutive contests, including 30 or more twice during this stretch. They were without 2 starters in the secondary (Jabrill Peppers and Marcus Jones) during last week’s loss at Buffalo and that could be the case again when the Chargers come to town. Facing a woeful opponent and playing on extra rest, Los Angeles should be expected to win and cover this weekend.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Chargers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Chargers’ offense rebounded from a couple of lackluster performances to pin 34 points on Denver in Week 16. They averaged 6.2 yards per play, Justin Herbert completed 74.2 percent of his passes and Gus Edwards racked up 4.9 yards per carry to go along with his 2 touchdowns. Herbert’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 18-to-3 and he has also rushed for a pair of TDs. No wonder Harbaugh loves him so much! Herbert and the rest of the offense should be poised for success against a potentially depleted New England defense that has imploded down the stretch.

If there is any good news for the Patriots, it’s that their offense has improved since Maye took over as QB1. The #3 overall pick threw 2 interceptions in 2 of his first 4 starts but has since gone 6 consecutive games without a multi-interception performance. New England has scored at least 15 points in 10 straight, including more than 20 on 5 occasions during this stretch. Both teams should be in good shape offensively on Saturday and the weather won’t be a hindrance. I like the Over in this spot.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Over 42.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.0.

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The Denver Broncos travel to Cincinnati this Saturday afternoon for a pivotal matchup with the Bengals. The visitors currently own the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, and a victory in Cincinnati would clinch a postseason spot for Sean Payton’s team. They had a few extra days to prepare for this game because they fell to the Chargers 34-27 on Thursday Night Football last week, and I expect rookie QB Bo Nix to have a big day. The Bengals defense is giving up 26.2 PPG (28th in the NFL) and 321.6 passing YPG (26th in the NFL).

For Joe Burrow and company, it’s been an extremely disappointing season. It’s been an uphill battle from the start, as Cinci fell to the lowly New England Patriots in Week 1, and while Burrow has played at an MVP level, this Bengals defense is terrible. Cincinnati held the Browns to 6 points last week, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the opposing QB in that game. They haven’t been able to slow down legit offenses this season, and their wins have come against poor opposition, as their opponents’ combined record is 25-80 in their 7 victories compared to 81-43 in their 8 losses.

Denver is 5-1 against the spread and 6-2 ATS on the road this season, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS at home this season. Even if Cinci wins this game, they’ll need to beat the Steelers next week and receive some help to get into the playoffs. This Broncos team has been one of the big surprises this NFL season, and I think they’ll keep the surprises coming as they should cover this Saturday and even upset the Bengals and end their season.

Broncos vs Bengals prediction: Denver +3.5 (-120) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3 (-110)

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The second half of my Broncos vs Bengals predictions is for Saturday’s game to be a high-scoring affair. As I stated in my side preview, Cincinnati’s defense has been terrible all season, and they’ve held their opponents to fewer than 20 points just four times this season. Those games came against the Patriots (17.3 PPG – 30th in the NFL), Giants (14.3 PPG – 32nd in the NFL) and Browns twice (16.3 PPG – 31st in the NFL), so they haven’t exactly been slowing down elite offense. Meanwhile, Denver is putting up 24.2 PPG (10th in the NFL) and has caught fire lately, as they’ve scored 27, 31, 41, 29 and 38 points in their previous five contests.

Now, the Bengals defense has been one of the worst in the league, but the offense has been great to watch. QB Joe Burrow is leading the NFL with 4,229 passing yards and 39 TDs, and the Bengals have scored fewer than 21 points just twice this season. Additionally, they’ve been on an Over tear, as the Over has cashed in 6 of their last 8 games and in 10 of their 15 contests this season. If there’s been one consistent thing for this Bengals team this year, it’s the fact that their games feature plenty of points.

The Over is 5-2 in the 7 Bengals home games this season and 5-3 in the Broncos’ 8 road contests. Additionally, both offenses have averaged 30+ points per game in their last five competitions. This Broncos defense has been touted as one of the league’s best, but Jameis Winston and the Browns and Justin Herbert and the Chargers have lit them up in 2 of the last 3 weeks. I can’t see this Denver defense slowing down Burrow, but the Bengals defense should allow 24+ points against Nix and company, so I’ll back a high-scoring game in Cincinnati this Saturday afternoon.

Broncos vs Bengals prediction: Over 49 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -125.

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Traditionally over the final few weeks of the NFL season, teams that are in positions where they need to win are often overpriced against teams who have “nothing” to play for. These are always situational spots where I’m going to back the underdog, and that is once again the case this week, as the Arizona Cardinals are in prime position to potentially spoil the Los Angeles’ Rams season on Saturday. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention following a loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago, while the Rams went into New York and somehow won and covered against the Jets, despite only registering 242 total yards and 19 points. And while Sean McVay is 30-18-1 ATS against NFC West opponents — including 12-3-1 ATS against the Cardinals — the Rams have still benefited from catching opponents in great scheduling spots and have 5 straight wins by 1 possession. That sets up nicely for Arizona to keep things close in this divisional showdown.

Much has been made of the Rams’ success on offense since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup, and for good reason. After all, Los Angeles now ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate on offense over the last 2 months. However, the Cardinals’ defense is also much improved from where it was a season ago, with Arizona sitting at 6th in EPA per pass on defense over that same time frame. Therefore, even though Matthew Stafford and company should put that defense to the test on Saturday, I expect Arizona to hold up nicely and hold this Rams offense to a reasonable point total. As for the Cardinals’ offense, Kyler Murray has regressed in recent weeks, but the Arizona passing attack should still succeed against a Rams pass defense that is 23rd in EPA per pass and 25th in passing success rate allowed. Let’s back the Cardinals to keep this NFC West clash within a touchdown.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Cardinals +7.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Games involving the Rams have tended to skew toward the Over when Los Angeles’ struggling defense meets an offense that is capable of stretching them vertically downfield. While Arizona has plenty of issues at the moment, the Cardinals are still able to score, and that was apparent when matched up against the likes of the Panthers and Patriots defenses in recent weeks. There’s no reason to suggest that Arizona wouldn’t be able to get to at least 24 points in this contest, which sets up nicely for a game that will be played in the upper 40s and low 50s in a weather-controlled indoor environment at SoFi Stadium. Both of these defenses are inside the bottom 10 in success rate allowed (SumerSports), and these offenses should be able to move the ball with sustained success on Saturday. Let’s get to the window with the Over at the current number.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Over 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Giants are currently slated to have the first overall pick in the upcoming Draft. It’s exactly what New York has been hoping for since they are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. At 2-13, possibly getting the first pick is the only positive that can be taken from this season. The Giants have gone through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle at quarterback this season and nothing has worked. Last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons marked their 10th in a row. Lock was under center and he completed just 22 of his 39 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Even with young playmakers like Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy, the Giants offense has been a massive disappointment. Plus, the New York defense allowed rookie Michael Penix Jr. (who was making his first career start) and the Falcons offense to score 34 points against them last week.

The Colts won their Week 16 matchup in a very unusual way. Indianapolis scored 34 points against the Titans which would lead you to think “wow, Anthony Richardson finally kicked it into gear!”. But no, Richardson completed just 7 passes in the entire game. The offense ran through Jonathan Taylor who totaled 218 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries. Taylor’s historic performance kept Indy’s playoff hopes alive as they are currently on the bubble with a 14% chance of making it past the regular season. If the Colts want to keep playing past Week 18, they need to win both of their remaining games and for a few other teams to slip up. That gives the Colts motivation to win while the Giants have plenty of motivation to lose since they want to hold onto the #1 pick. Take the Colts to cover this spread against a sinking Giants team.

Colts vs Giants prediction: Colts -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

Taking the over even with the state of the Giants offense right now? I know, but hear me out. The Colts defense has been one of the worst in the league this season and they rank 10th in opponent points per game. Last week, they allowed 30 points to Mason Rudolph and the Titans. Before that: 31 to Bo Nix and the Broncos, 24 to Drake Maye and the Pats, 24 to Jared Goff and the Lions, 27 to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and 30 to Josh Allen and the Bills. See the trend? Indy allows a lot of points and that gives me a little bit of confidence that the Giants can put up a respectable amount of points. Five of Indy’s last 6 games have gone over this total.

It’s been a brutal last few weeks for the Giants defense. Last week, they allowed 34 points to Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons as Bijan Robinson had a fantastic game on the ground. He ran for 94 yards with 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Before that, New York allowed 35 points to the Ravens as Lamar Jackson totaled 5 touchdowns. The Giants can’t seem to stop the elite running backs right now and that’s not good since Taylor is next up on Sunday. I think there’s a solid chance that both teams can score 20 or more points because of the weak defenses, so take a shot on the over in New York.

Colts vs Giants prediction: Over 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s the Raiders (3-12) visiting the Saints (5-10) in Week 17, and this probably won’t be a matchup that many tune into. Both teams have been horrendous in the last few months, but let’s start with the Saints. New Orleans became the first team to be shut out this season as they lost 34-0 in Week 16. Spencer Rattler was back as the starting quarterback, and he completed just 15 of his 30 passes for 153 yards and an interception. It was a brutal night for Rattler, and unfortunately for him, he didn’t have Alvin Kamara in the backfield to help. That led to the Saints compiling just 63 rushing yards between Rattler, Jordan Mims, Kendre Miller, and Jamaal Williams. There were no silver linings to take from the humiliating loss. However, there could be hope for their Week 17 matchup. Derek Carr and Kamara are both pushing to play despite the team not having a chance at making the playoffs. If those two can suit up, it will completely change this game.

The tankathon bowl happened in Las Vegas last weekend between the Jaguars and Raiders. It was a pretty ugly game all around between Mac Jones and Aidan O’Connell, but the Raiders came out on top 19-14. Las Vegas didn’t have much success on the ground, which is not a surprise considering they are the worst rushing offense in the league. With that said, Brock Bowers continued his historic rookie season, hauling in 11 catches for 99 yards. Ameer Abdullah was second on the team in catches with 5. Neither one of these teams has anything to play for besides a better position in the upcoming Draft, but if the Saints can get either Carr or Kamara back, I like New Orleans’ chances.

Raiders vs Saints prediction: Saints +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s the lowest total of the entire Week 17 slate. Usually, a game with this low of a total indicates poor weather conditions and plenty of injuries. However, only one of those is accurate for this matchup. This game will take place indoors in New Orleans, which makes it one of the lowest totals for an indoor matchup all season. So even with perfect game conditions, oddsmakers aren’t expecting much of an offensive performance. I’m siding with the oddsmakers on that belief because both of these offenses have looked terrible lately. New Orleans has finished with 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games, and Las Vegas hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since November 3.

I do expect this total to move if Carr or Kamara can suit up. Those two are the best playmakers that the Saints have on the roster right now and are a huge upgrade from the duo of Rattler and Miller. Even then, the Saints receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, making life extremely hard on Carr. I don’t see either team reaching 20 points, so I’m leaning towards the under.

Raiders vs Saints prediction: Under 38 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 37.5.

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We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here, as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game, and like its chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game. The Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.

Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production, while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time, and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, and the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Titans +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Despite both teams being in incredibly rough shape, we should see some points scored in this one. As mentioned previously, the Titans have allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, and that has been on full display in recent weeks – giving up 42, 37 and 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did hold the Jags to 10 points last time, we should see some improvement from Jacksonville, as that game was Mac Jones’ first start and he has since settled into his spot. He led the Jags offense to putting 25 points on the Jets a couple of weeks ago, and they should see some success here.

Further, Mason Rudolph has been a clear upgrade since taking over from Will Levis, and the experienced QB should be able to penetrate a Jaguars defense that has been woeful against the pass. The Titans actually rank in the top half of the league in passing touchdowns, and with plenty of points scored in Rudolph’s last 2 starts, he should have some success in this one.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Over 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards. 

That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Two basic elements are a part of every handicap – 1) an evaluation of each team and 2) an evaluation of the line itself. The latter typically means more. In this case, the number is telling us that Atlanta vs Washington will be a higher-scoring game. The dynamics of both programs don’t necessarily agree. On Washington’s side, the market hasn’t caught up to their proclivity to create “overs.” The Commanders are 10-5 to the over, including overs in 5 of their last 7 contests. The Falcons are the exact opposite– 10-5 to the under,  including unders in 6 of their last 7 contests. So what gives in this matchup? From an outsider’s perspective, one might consider an over. After all, Washington QB Jayden Daniels is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Falcons just got an upgrade with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their offense generated 35 points and 329 yards in his first start. Points are on their way, right? Not so fast.

We like Penix and his potential to succeed on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Washington is sneaky-good against the pass. They’re 4th in sack percentage, 6th in opponent completion percentage and 4th in opponent passing yards per game (185.5). In a playoff atmosphere, we think Penix will hold his own, but that doesn’t mean he’ll explode and have a massively productive game. After all, against a porous Giants’ secondary, Atlanta was mostly conservative, choosing to run on 38 of 65 plays (58%). Washington isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should grant the Falcons a chance to play ball-control and keep-away from Daniels.

On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, a huge part of why their battles have averaged 52 points per game this season, but Atlanta’s resistance is better than you might think. The Falcons are 9th in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, 2 metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ awesome performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders’ offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with a thrower who’s only starting in his second NFL game. Maybe Daniels and Penix put on a show. From where we’re sitting, particularly with the nerves of the playoffs looming and the need for both programs to keep winning, this total is a tad too high.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Before the season started, NFL schedule-makers must’ve been salivating at this matchup, a rematch of the NFC Championship game right before the playoffs. Many might have predicted that this would be a battle for the #1 seed right before January, and a moment for the Lions to get their revenge. Now, the game looks and feels wildly different, although oddsmakers are still positioning themselves with caution, and with respect for the downtrodden Niners. If any one week served as a microcosm for San Francisco’s season, it was Week 16. San Francisco flew to Miami to face a struggling Dolphins squad last Sunday, an outfit that has little chance of even making the postseason. It was a tight contest throughout, but as we’ve gotten used to seeing from the Niners this season, they flailed in the second half. They also only gained 81 total yards on the ground, a consequence of a very injured backfield and offensive line. On Monday, it was announced that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will miss the final 2 games of the season, further adding to the slew of injuries across San Francisco’s roster. They’ve only covered the spread once in their past 7 contests, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Lions, meanwhile, returned to form. After a loss in Week 15 where they allowed the Bills to score 48 points, the Bears were the perfect mince-meat for the hungry Lions. It showed on Sunday. Chicago eventually punched back, but as usual it was too little, too late. Detroit gained 475 yards and had the hapless Bears chasing them for the whole contest. Another big win for the Lions and 2 games remain before they can secure the NFC’s #1 seed. The only reason why we’d consider the 49ers is that Detroit has a look-ahead matchup next Sunday that could decide the NFC North. If the Vikings end up losing on Sunday (4:25 pm ET) to the Packers, that would place Detroit a full game ahead of Minnesota, so the Lions would have a chance to clinch the #1 seed and NFC North with a win at San Francisco. Either way, a Dan Campbell led-roster will undoubtedly come to play, with vengeance on their minds. And, based on 16 weeks of evidence, we simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or juice to hold them back.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Opposing offenses are clearly starting to figure out the Lions’ defensive flaws and woes from injury, a big reason why super-high scoring has been paralleling every game with Dan Campbell’s program. Over the past 3 weeks, Lions games have averaged 69 points per game (a staggering 206 points in total), a result of above-average offenses playing catch-up, or if you’re the Bills, out-pacing the Lions’ juggernaut offense. And Detroit hasn’t slowed down one bit. They’re 1st in points per game (33), and top-5 in every major offensive category except for 4th-down conversion rate, where they’re 6th. A banged-up Niners’ defense is no match for the energy and output that Detroit can bring on a week-to-week basis, and the Lions should have extra fuel on Monday night, for reasons we mentioned in the spread writeup.

On the other side, it’s amazing to see how far the Niners have fallen, especially on defense. They still hold their own offensively, boasting a top-4 mark in yards per play and gaining 366 yards per game (8th), but their defense has devolved significantly. While they limit teams somewhat (5th in opponent yards per play, 5.1), they’re a defense that bends and breaks all the time. They rank 24th in opponent 3rd-down conversions and they’re even worse at preventing enemies from scoring touchdowns in the red zone (30th). Recently, against similarly built, elite opponents (Chiefs, Bills, Packers), they’ve permitted a disgusting 33.3 points per game. This might have been a hard-hitting, pre-playoff battle if situations were different, but we see little evidence against the reality that this contest will proceed how most of them have for both of these franchises this season.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Over 50.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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