Parlays

Following an 80-68 loss at St. John’s on Saturday, the Villanova Wildcats (11-6) will hit the road again on Tuesday night when they travel to Cincinnati to play the Xavier Musketeers (10-7). The Wildcats struggled defensively on Saturday, as they allowed the ‘Johnnies to score 1.23 points per possession. St. John’s also got to the free throw line 22 more times and grabbed 16 more rebounds than Villanova. Xavier, on the other hand, comes into this game off a road win at DePaul. The win snapped another multi-game skid for the Musketeers, who are now 2-4 in conference play. 

Despite being the better team on paper, Villanova is not in a very profitable spot here. Playing on the road in consecutive games is not an easy feat in college basketball overall, much less the Big East  – especially when the team is an underdog in both games like the Wildcats are here. In fact, when both teams come into a Big East matchup following road games, road underdogs who were underdogs in their previous game are just 3-11 ATS in those spots over the last 3 seasons. I believe that trend will hold true on Tuesday night. Xavier has 2 of the best defenders in the Big East in Zach Freemantle and Dailyn Swain, both of whom can take turns on Eric Dixon – who hasn’t been able to piece together his entire game offensively in the last 2 outings. On the other side of the floor, the Musketeers excel in their perimeter shooting and getting to the free throw line – 2 areas in which Villanova struggles defensively. They should be able to score comfortably against a Villanova defense that is 9th out of 11 Big East teams in opposing 3-point rate and free throw rate. The Musketeers are shooting close to 39% from the perimeter and greater than 80% from the free throw line in conference play, which tells me Villanova’s free throw luck may run out here. For reference, Villanova’s conference opponents are shooting just 66.4% from the free throw line coming into this game. Given the fact that Xavier’s entire starting lineup makes more than 70% of its free throws, we could see another situation where the Wildcats’ inability to defend without fouling costs them the game like it did at St. John’s on Saturday. All things considered, give me the home team in a fired-up spot against a team playing its 2nd-consecutive game as a road underdog in conference. 

Villanova vs Xavier prediction: Xavier Musketeers -2.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -3. 

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We head to the Big East on Tuesday for our Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays prediction. These teams currently sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings. Providence hits the road riding a 2-game winning streak, but both games were at home, where the Friars are 8-2 on the season. As with most teams, it is a different story on the road, and playing at Creighton is no picnic. The Bluejays have only lost once at home this season, and that was to neighboring Nebraska. I look for Creighton to hold serve at home, and I am comfortable taking them to cover -9 inside their own gym.

I think the key to this game will be 3-point shooting. Both teams shoot the deep ball at a rapid clip, depending on the outside shot for much of their offense. For Providence, defending the arc has been a priority as well, and when they are successful, they are running people off the line and forcing low-percentage jumpers. Can they execute that plan in a tough road environment? I am not expecting so. Creighton will have at least the two most talented players on the floor, and that should be the difference. Laying 9 points feels about right for the better team playing at home. My Providence vs Creighton pick is for the Bluejays to cover.

Providence vs Creighton Prediction: Creighton -9 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Much of Arizona’s struggles relative to expectations in the nonconference portion of its schedule were due to close game variance. In fact, even as they were losing tight games to the likes of Oklahoma, West Virginia and UCLA, the metrics would still tell you that the Wildcats were a top 20 team in the nation and it appears that the numbers were ultimately correct. Arizona has rebounded nicely in conference play, having won 6 straight games dating back to December 18, and the Wildcats are firmly a contender in what is shaping up to be another very strong year for the Big 12. The backcourt duo of Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love seemed to have hit their stride, while Anthony Dell’Orso and KJ Lewis have been excellent in recent games. All of this sets up nicely for Tommy Lloyd’s team to put forth a strong effort on both sides of the ball on Tuesday, especially since the Wildcats are coming off a win over UCF where they appeared to be going through the motions following a long road trip.

On the other side, Baylor enters this game as winners of back-to-back contests. However, this is not an ideal spot for the Bears, having now been out west for nearly a week following a win over Arizona State last Saturday. The Bears are also dealing with a couple of key injuries in their rotation, as both Jalen Celestine and Langston Love are questionable for this game. Both of these players have already missed a couple of games due to these undisclosed injuries, and I’d be surprised if they were back in the lineup for Tuesday’s contest, especially with the opportunity to get back into the swing of things in Waco against lesser competition on the horizon. Baylor’s offense has needed its best players to log big minutes in recent games, including in that overtime win in Tempe, which could come back to bite them in a game against an Arizona team that loves to play with pace (50th in adjusted tempo) and wear down its opponent. Scott Drew’s team is one that I’ll be interested in backing once they get fully healthy, but for now, I can’t do anything but fade the Bears in this spot. Let’s lay the points with the Wildcats.

Baylor vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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The mighty Cavs are hoping to avoid losing back-to-back games for only the 2nd time this season as they head to Indiana, to face a Pacers team that just beat them two days ago. Cleveland actually played well in that game up until the 3rd quarter, leading by as many as 15 points in the first half, however a disastrous 3rd period in which they went just 4-for-20 from the field and committed 7 turnovers cost them the game. Now it’ll be interesting to see how they respond to facing adversity, which hasn’t happened many times so far this season.

Indiana is the hottest team in the East right now, riding a 7-game win streak. However, the win at Cleveland came at a cost as Tyrese Haliburton re-injured his hamstring which makes him questionable to suit up tonight. Him not playing would undoubtedly be a massive blow, despite a masterful 2nd half in Sunday’s game at Cleveland. The defense is what has kept the Pacers afloat during this win streak, they’ve held their last 3 of 4 opponents under 100 points. The length that they have around the perimeter on defense is something a lot of teams have struggled with, but despite the win on Sunday they’re 7-point underdogs in this one.

Cleveland has been a well-oiled machine this season, minor bumps on the road along the way are to be expected. And that’s exactly what Sunday’s game was. It’s really hard to imagine the most lethal three-point shooting team going 11-for-41 in back-to-back games. With no play making by Haliburton the Pacers offense will struggle to keep up, I’m taking the Cavaliers here.

Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction: Cavaliers -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks will be play the second game of a rare back-to-back situation in the same city when they meet again in Dallas on Tuesday night. These same 2 teams just squared off at the American Airlines Center this past Sunday, when Denver prevailed 112-101. However, there are reasons to think that the Mavs will turn the tide. They were playing without both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in that contest, but Irving will be back for the rematch. Despite being undermanned, the Mavericks could have and probably should have won 2 days ago. They led by as many as 17 points in the first half and still found themselves ahead by 12 points in the fourth quarter before clearly getting fatigued down the stretch.

Irving’s return should help significantly in the departments of both depth and scoring. The former Duke star was playing great prior to dealing with a back injury. He averaged more than 30 points per game in his last 4 contests while making at least 50 percent of his shots from the floor in 8 of his last 10 games. Irving is also no stranger to victimizing the Nuggets. The 32-year-old is scoring 31.0 ppg in 2 games against them this season while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor and 50 percent (7-for-14) from deep. Klay Thompson is also scorching hot for Dallas. Thompson drained 6 triples for 25 points in the most recent matchup with Denver and is shooting at a 40.8 percent clip from the land of plenty in January. The Nuggets are good but nothing special on the road (11-8 SU), so give me the Mavs to cover.

Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction: Mavericks +4 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning will be taking their one-game winning streak on the road to Boston to take on the Bruins. The Lightning have been scoring at an impressive clip this season, which has led them to be the NHL’s leading offensive team averaging 3.68 goals per game. They also have the league’s fourth best powerplay unit which makes them incredibly difficult to hold off of the scoresheet. In one previous meeting with the Bruins less than one week ago, the Lightning beat them 4-1. I believe it is their offensive depth that separates them from the Bruins. Outside of David Pastrnak, the Bruins do not really have any legit offensive threats, while the Lightning have three on one line in Guentzel, Point and Kucherov.

The Bruins have been struggling as of late. They are 2-7 in their last nine games played. They have surrendered three or more goals in their last five games. This shaky defensive play will not hold up well against the league’s highest scoring team. This is an important divisional matchup as these teams are only separated by two points. I think the talented veteran lineup of the Lightning will be able to get this done in Boston. I will be taking the Lightning on the money line.

Lightning vs Bruins prediction: Tampa Bay ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Vancouver Canucks travel to Winnipeg to take on the Jets for the first time this season. This matchup will feature two very good goalies who can steal a win for their respective teams. Thatcher Demko has had to battle injuries all season–which exp;ains why his numbers have been so poor this season– but when healthy, he’s one of the better goalies in the game. Connor Hellebuyck needs no introduction. He’s the favorite to win the Vezina trophy and is making a strong case to also win the Hart. 

Vancouver was able to snap their losing streak with a 3-0 win against the Leafs. That game also saw the return of Elias Pettersson, who had missed some time due to injury. It’s nice to see this team is finally getting healthy, but even with almost everyone back, the Jets are the better overall team and they have been very consistent this season. Demko’s game still needs work and he might find it quite challenging having to face a Winnipeg offence that is elite on the power play and can also fill the net 5-on-5. Expect the Jets to come out and take care of business.

Winnipeg Jets Money Line available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The New York Rangers travel to Colorado to take on the Avalanche for the first time this season. New York has won 2 in a row and 3 of their last 5, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that they are 20-20-2 on the season and are scoring under 3 goals per game. This team has fallen apart after a red-hot October and it doesn’t look like they will be able to turn their season around. Igor Shesterkin hasn’t been elite, but he can’t do it alone.

The Avalanche have been a completely different hockey team since trading for Mackenzie Blackwood. Despite taking the loss against Winnipeg, he allowed just 2 goals. He’s never allowed 3 or more in an Avalanche jersey. The consistency he brings in goal is welcomed. Colorado has a dynamic offence on home ice and there’s nothing to suggest that the Rangers will be able to slow it down. This game is going to be very one-sided and will probably be dominated by the home team.

Rangers vs Avalanche prediction: Avalanche 3-way ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.