NBA Picks

For only the third time this season, Wednesday night will see the Oklahoma City Thunder enter a game as an underdog as they face the mighty Boston Celtics at TD Garden. The spread is at 3.5 points, which isn’t a lot. OKC lost to Denver in its last game, splitting the baseball series against Jokic and company — but, more importantly, the Thunder lost Jalen Williams to a hip injury. Not having their second-leading scorer and his 20 points per game could prove to be costly in this one, as the Celtics will likely come out with everything they have on offense.

Boston has been on a roll for a while now; prior to this game it posted a 114-108 win over the Utah Jazz at home. The Celtics rested a couple of important players just so they can be at 100 percent for this matchup with the Thunder. A revenge factor should also not be underestimated here — Boston had arguably its worst offensive game of the season in the first meeting between the 2 teams back in January, losing 105-92. In that game the Celtics made just 9 of 46 attempts from 3, good enough for just 19% efficiency. I am going to go out on a limb and say that will not happen again in Wednesday’s game; the Celtics average 18.2 made 3s per game at TD Garden this season.

The 2 teams are evenly matched, but the loss of Jalen Williams will be huge for the Thunder. Even though they are 4-0 SU in games without him this season, none of those were against a team as good as the Celtics. Boston has won 5 games in a row, it is 7-1 SU in 8 at home and has beaten 6 of 7 opponents from the Western Conference. It’s time for the C’s to make a statement with a big win. I’m taking them to cover.

Thunder vs Celtics prediction: Boston -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers surprisingly fell at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans last night and now will be forced right back into action as they take on the Miami Heat. The Clippers have had issues on the road this season, winning just 13 of their 33 games so far. And while they do have a winning record on the second night of back-to-backs this season, their point differential in those games is -4.1. Kawhi Leonard normally does not play both games of back-to-backs; considering he managed 36 minutes of playing time last night, I do not expect to see him on the floor. Losing a 20-point per game scorer when Norman Powell is also out could hinder their chances.

The Los Angeles Clippers have struggled for form of late. Over the last 10 games they have ranked in the bottom 10 in the NBA in net offensive and defensive rating. They will rely heavily on James Harden to be a sparkplug for their offense, but he has played 44 and 40 minutes in his last couple of games. The Heat are 11th in defensive rating over the last 10 games and will be well positioned to clamp down on the Clippers’ leader. The visitors will need more help from Ivica Zubac, but he has a tough task against a great defender in Bam Adebayo. Look for the Heat to cover the spread on the back of the Clippers’ offensive struggles.

Clippers vs Heat prediction: Miami -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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The Phoenix Suns enter this matchup struggling to find consistency, alternating wins and losses over the past couple of weeks. Their inability to close games has haunted them, as seen in their recent overtime loss to Denver and a 2-point defeat to Memphis. Currently sitting in 11th place in the West, they remain just a few games behind Dallas for a play-in spot, but their underwhelming performances leave little hope for a deep postseason run. Houston, on the other hand, has won 3 straight. However, its recent success comes with an asterisk — 2 wins over the Pelicans and 1 against Orlando don’t exactly scream dominance. Sitting 5th in the West, the Rockets have shown signs of decline since the all-star break — leading some to doubt their ability to make a serious playoff push.

This feels like a game the Suns could potentially steal, but backing them on the road is tough. Phoenix holds a miserable 12-22 straight-up record away from home and is just 5-20 as an underdog this season. While the 4.5-point spread might seem tempting for a close cover, the Suns’ recent inability to close games and their road struggles make Houston the better play.

Suns vs Rockets prediction: Houston -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Denver Nuggets return home on Wednesday night after a quick 2-game road trip, in which they split a pair of games with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday and Monday. Denver will host a red-hot Minnesota Timberwolves squad, which enters this contest on a 5-game winning streak while covering the spread in 4 of those 5 games. Head-to-head, the Timberwolves have had the Nuggets’ number this season — winning each of the 2 meetings, with the latest coming on January 25 in a 133-104 victory. Anthony Edwards led the way in that contest with 34 points and 9 assists. Despite the head-to-head success and current winning streak, Minnesota is a +3.5 underdog in this one.

With that said, I’ll be making a play on the Timberwolves and the points for my Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick. Not only has Minnesota had success against Denver this season, but it has also been one of the most profitable teams against the spread when in the underdog role. The Timberwolves are 10-6-1 ATS as underdogs this season and they are currently playing some of their best basketball. Minnesota ranks 10th in the NBA in terms of offensive rating (114.5) and over the last 5 games it is second in that department (125.1) behind only the Spurs. The Timberwolves are also clawing their way out of the current play-in spot they find themselves in and are only 0.5 games back of the Warriors for the # 6 seed, so that adds some extra motivation. The biggest boost, however, is the return of Rudy Gobert — who is desperately needed in this contest to slow down Nikola Jokic.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Minnesota +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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