College Basketball Picks

It will be a showdown between the #1 and #2 teams in the Southland Conference when the McNeese Cowboys and Lamar Cardinals battle on Wednesday night for the tournament title and a berth in the Big Dance. Given the enormity of the +13.5 spread, my Lamar vs McNeese prediction is on the underdogs to cover. As we have already seen on numerous occasions during Championship Week, things can get a bit crazy when the pressure is on and the stakes are high. I’m not saying Lamar is going to win outright, but this game could be closer than expected. After all, the Cardinals were within 11 points in both regular-season contests against the Cowboys — losing 75-64 on the road in January and 68-66 at home earlier this month. The most recent result especially should give the Cards confidence heading into this one.

Lamar also has plenty of momentum after getting past a tough Nicholls team in the semifinals on Tuesday. Nicholls, it should be noted, handed McNeese its only conference loss during the regular season. For the Cardinals, Alexis Marmolejos (14.4 ppg) has scored 18, 15 and 17 points in the last 3 outings. Ja’Sean Jackson (12.0 ppg) has scored at least 14 points in 4 of the last 5. Although McNeese is likely on its way to the NCAA Tournament, I don’t think Lamar will have much trouble covering a lofty spread.

Lamar vs McNeese prediction: Lamar +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.5

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The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Ohio State Buckeyes will face off on Wednesday evening in Indianapolis for round one of the Big 10 Tournament. Iowa narrowly made the conference tournament after beating Nebraska on the road in the last game of the regular season. Ohio State is just 17-14 on the year and is the 10 seed in the Big 10 Tournament, but they still have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. A loss here would most likely knock them out of contention, so this should be a great game. It is do or die for both teams here, but our best bet is on the total. The over point total is our best bet of the game.

Over 155 points is our best bet of the game because both teams have great offenses and shoot the ball well from three-point land. Iowa is ranked #13 nationally in points per game and like to play at a fast pace. According to KenPom, Iowa is ranked #16 in average offensive possession length, so we expect an up and down matchup. Ohio State is ranked #41 in points per game and #33 in three-point percentage. We see Ohio State having success from deep in this one, as Iowa’s ranked just #215 in opposing three-point percentage. There should be no shortage of three’s being put up in this one, so the over is the play here. Take over 155.

*Over 155 available at time of publishing. Playable at 156*

The ACC Tournament continues tonight with a second-round matchup between the 15th-seeded California Golden Bears and the 7th-seeded Stanford Cardinal. Cal enters fresh off a thrilling double-overtime victory over Virginia Tech, a game in which they nearly squandered a second-half lead but ultimately pulled through in clutch moments. Now the Bears face a slightly tougher challenge in their Bay Area rivals. On paper, these teams match up closely. Offensively, Cal holds an advantage — ranking 125th in points per game compared to Stanford’s 211th. However, Stanford makes up ground with superior 3-point shooting. Meanwhile, Cal dominates the boards — especially on the offensive glass, which could prove crucial. The x-factor in this game is Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud, a 7’1” French center who averages 20.1 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Cal’s ability to win the rebounding battle could be neutralized if Raynaud takes over inside.

From a handicapping perspective, this game is intriguing. Cal has been strong against the spread, going 10-3 ATS on the road, while Stanford has struggled at 3-8 ATS away from home. Additionally, Cal thrives as an underdog whereas Stanford has been unreliable as a favorite. There are further stats to back Cal, but you get the point. The challenge? The previous matchup saw Stanford as a 6.5-point favorite, and it barely missed covering. The line is set at 6.5 again, putting the Card in an ATS “revenge spot.” The general rule of thumb would be to take Stanford, as the books are offering the same line. However, I’ll lean toward California at +6.5 but keeping it a 1-star play. Teasing Cal should also be safe.

California vs Stanford prediction: Cal +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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It’s a Big 12 showdown as #10 Kansas State makes its way to take on #7 Baylor after defeating Arizona State 71-66 on Tuesday.  In that matchup, Kansas State shot 50% from the field but turned the ball over 13 times — off of which the Sun Devils scored 20 points. That’s something the Wildcats simply can’t do against this Baylor team. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but I think Kansas State will be able to cover the spread in this matchup.

The last time these 2 teams faced, Baylor won 70-62 — but Kansas State covered. Baylor didn’t pull away until there was only a few minutes left. The Wildcats were able to contain Baylor’s offense, and they have a decent bench to keep up with the Bears in this matchup. Kansas State isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, hitting 32.9% of those shots this season, but it should be able to find success against Baylor, The Bears were in last place in the Big 12 this season, allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from deep. Baylor shoots well from 3, hitting 35.4% of those attempts, but the Wildcats were third best in the Big 12 by holding opponents to just 31.4%. K State needs to limit the number of fouls in this matchup; it allowed Baylor to go to the line 21 times in the last matchup, something it can’t afford to do in this game. I don’t think the Wildcats will win, but I do think they can keep this game and it will come down to the last few minutes — making them my best bet of the day. 

Kansas State vs Baylor prediction: Kansas State +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Mississippi State fell out of the Top 25 following a heartbreaking loss against Arkansas this Saturday. On Wednesday the Bulldogs will be looking to rebound against LSU, which finished 15th in the SEC this season. LSU endured a tough end to the regular season, facing 5 ranked opponents and losing every one of those games — and some were not even close. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was ninth in the SEC —  losing 4 of its last 5, with the only win coming against LSU back on March 1. LSU is going to need to make a deep run in this SEC Tournament to even be considered for the Big Dance, but I have some bad news for Tiger fans: I think the Bulldogs will win and cover the spread.

Despite losing 4 of its last 5, Mississippi State has to have some confidence heading into this matchup. It has won their last 2 tournament-opening games under head coach Chris Jans. Moreover, this LSU offense is almost non-existent as of late; it is averaging only 61.8 ppg in the last 5 games of the season while giving up 77.2 ppg. Mississippi State is scoring 83 ppg in its last 5 games. This is a decent spread for the Bulldogs to cover, but I don’t think they will have any issues in doing so. The Bulldogs will probably dominate in the paint and the Tigers may have a tough time containing KeShawm Murphy — plus they also have to deal with Josh Hubbard, who is averaging 18.3 ppg. Mizzou couldn’t stop him in the last matchup, as he scored 30 points. At the end of the day, the Bulldogs will likely be too much for the Tigers to handle.

LSU vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A berth in the NCAA Tournament will be at stake when the Navy Midshipmen and American Eagles collide in the Patriot League Tournament final on Wednesday night. American has home-court advantage as the #1 seed in the conference, but that did not make any difference in this particular matchup during the regular season. Navy won both of the games, prevailing 81-58 at home on January 2 and 68-60 on the road on February 26. What’s especially concerning for the Eagles is that the Midshipmen got the job done in a way that is repeatable. Navy won the rebounding battle by 10 in the first meeting and by 12 in the rematch. It blocked a total of 8 shots in those 2 contests; American had zero blocks. The Eagles were simply dominated in the paint.

As such, 2.5 points are too many to give and my Navy vs American pick is on the underdogs to cover the spread. In addition to their head-to-head success, the Midshipmen are in outstanding form at the moment. They have won 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 8 overall. All 5 of their victories during the current surge have come by at least 6 points. Austin Benigni (18.8 ppg) has scored at least 24 points in 3 consecutive contests, including a 30-point performance in the conference quarterfinals against Boston University. I’m backing Benigni and the Midshipmen.

Navy vs American prediction: Navy +2.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 tournament is rolling into its second day, and following their victory over Utah on Tuesday, the UCF Golden Knights are set to take on the Kansas Jayhawks on Wednesday. Kansas’ issues this season have been well documented, but the Jayhawks did put forth an inspired effort to close the season last Saturday against Arizona in a much-needed victory over the Wildcats. This is something of home game for Kansas given that the tournament is being played in Kansas City, and with this now being a new season, I’m of the opinion that the Jayhawks should be able to reset and put a lot of their regular season woes out of their mind for the next few games. It certainly helps matters that Bill Self’s team gets a pretty favorable matchup against UCF, a team that Kansas will certainly take seriously considering the Knights gave the Jayhawks a scare at Allen Fieldhouse back on January 28.

The first two meetings between these teams can be instructive for my handicap on Wednesday, particularly the first meeting, in which Kansas drubbed the Knights 99-48 in Orlando. The key for the Kansas defense in that game compared to the following meeting was the Jayhawks were able to force UCF into taking a lot of tough shots behind the arc, which is not the strong suit of the Knights offense (203rd in 3-point percentage and 129th in 3-point rate). The Knights are a much more adept 2-point offense, but that plays into Kansas’ hands, as the Jayhawks have been excellent at defending inside the arc (12th in 2-point percentage allowed) with the length and shot-blocking prowess of Flory Bidunga and KJ Adams in the paint. On the other side of the ball, Kansas is an efficient 2-point offense with its consistent motion and big-to-big passing out of the post. This should give the UCF defense plenty of issues, as we saw with Kansas registering 90+ point totals in both meetings earlier this season. Ultimately, I’ll lay the chalk with the Jayhawks in a de-facto home game to kick off their Big 12 tournament.

UCF vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5

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The Oklahoma Sooners and the Georgia Bulldogs will meet on Wednesday night in Nashville for round one of the SEC Tournament. This will be a #11 vs #14 seeded matchup but both teams are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The SEC seems to be one of the best conferences in the history of the game and day one of the league tournament should not disappoint. Georgia won the first matchup back in January and we expect a similar result in round two. The Bulldogs are currently -3 and that is our best bet of the game.

Georgia -3 is our best bet of the game because they have rattled off four straight wins and should be able to dominate the offensive glass. Georgia was projected to head to the NIT after losing to Auburn on February 22^nd but have since flipped their season and won four straight games. We expect them to continue their winning streak one more game and cover the three-point spread against Oklahoma. Georgia should be able to dominate this game on the offensive glass as they are ranked #19 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while Oklahoma’s defense is ranked #273 in that category. Take the Bulldogs to cover here.

Oklahoma vs Georgia prediction: Georgia -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The ACC Tournament continues tonight with a second-round matchup between the 14th-seeded Syracuse Orange and the 6th-seeded SMU Mustangs. Syracuse survived a sluggish battle against Florida State yesterday, grinding out a 66-62 victory despite both teams struggling from the field. Each side shot under 45% overall and below 25% from 3, but it was enough for the Orange advance. Syracuse’s season has been an uphill battle, ranking 205th in offensive efficiency and an even worse 312th defensively. Their only strength has been rebounding, but even that tilts in SMU’s favor. The Orange are led by JJ Starling (17.9 PPG) and Eddie Lampkin (11.7 PPG), but losing Donnie Freeman to injury in early January derailed their already fragile offensive attack.

On the other side, SMU comes in as the clearly superior team — averaging 81.1 points per game with a well-balanced attack. The Mustangs rank 31st in offensive efficiency and a respectable 135th on defense. Unlike Syracuse, they don’t rely on a single scorer. Kevin Miller (13.4 PPG) and Chuck Harris (12.9 PPG) lead the way, but 6 different players average double-figures — making them difficult to defend. SMU is a -8.5 favorite — which seems fair given the talent gap — but Syracuse kept things competitive in their last meeting. With the Orange’s defensive struggles and SMU’s fast-paced offense, expect a high-scoring affair in Charlotte.

Syracuse vs SMU prediction: Over 151 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The stage is set for the Big Sky Championship on Wednesday night. This conference tournament ran true to form, as the top 2 seeds will go head-to-head with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. This will be the 3rd time Montana and Northern Colorado meet, with each team winning on the road during the regular season. Montana was unable to score in the first meeting in a 81-57 loss, putting up just 0.81 points per possession while shooting 43% from 2-point range and 19% from beyond the arc. That changed when the Grizzlies visited Greeley, where they scored 1.26 points per possession and shot better than 60% from inside and beyond the arc in a 86-78 win. 

Both of the regular season meetings between Montana and Northern Colorado were around 69 possessions, so I expect this game to be around that many possessions as well. Northern Colorado loves to play with pace relative to the rest of the conference, as the Bears lead the Big Sky in adjusted tempo and average possession length. They have scored nearly 1.2 points per possession over their last 5 games and are in the 100th percentile in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage over that span. In other words, they are scoring at an elite rate in recent weeks, and Montana is not far behind. The Grizzlies have scored around 1.1 points per possession over the last few weeks and have been shooting the ball very well themselves. For reference, they are in the 89th percentile in effective field goal percentage and 97th percentile in true shooting percentage over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics).

On the other end, both teams have very strong defensive numbers of late. However, I think those numbers are a bit skewed because neither team has played against what I would consider a good offense in weeks. Northern Colorado has repeatedly allowed capable offenses to score, giving up an average of around 80 points per game to teams that are in the top 150 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency like Montana – whose results against good offenses have been similar. The Grizzlies yield an average of about 83 points per game against top 150 offenses like Northern Colorado. Neither defense offers much rim protection, and both offenses are littered with multiple shooters that can knock down perimeter shots at around a 40% clip – so the scoring should come from everywhere and anywhere on the floor in this one. Unders are typically the more profitable bet on conference championship totals in college basketball, but with the expected pace of play and current form these teams are in offensively, I find myself gravitating toward the Over in this Big Sky matchup. 

Montana vs Northern Colorado prediction: Over 148 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.

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It’s Championship Week, and there will be plenty of excitement on Wednesday as the ACC Tournament continues with Virginia and Georgia Tech taking the court. The last time these 2 teams faced, Virginia walked away with a 75-61 victory. Virginia finished 9th in the ACC this season, averaging 64.9 ppg and giving up 66.8 ppg. As for Georgia Tech, it finished eighth in the ACC while averaging 73.7 ppg and giving up 72.6 ppg. Virginia is a slight underdog heading into this matchup, but I think it has the better chance to advance and face Duke.

I think Virginia’s shot-making ability gives them a slight edge in this matchup. UVA was fourth in the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage this season at 37.6%; Georgia Tech sits in 10th, where it hits 33.9% of their shots from deep. Another huge advantage Virginia has is from the free-throw line. Virginia is shooting 75.1% from the line while Georgia Tech comes in at 68.1% at that department, which could play a big role in this game. It is true that Georgia Tech has the rebounding advantage in this matchup; it averages 40.7 rebounds per game compared to Virginia’s 31.9. At the end of the day, I think Virginia will find success against this Georgia Tech defense that allows their opponents to shoot 35% from deep, plus Virginia’s stingy defense will probably be able to slow down the Yellow Jackets’ offense — making the Hoosiers my best bet of the day. 

Virginia vs Georgia Tech prediction: Virginia +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 tournament second round gets underway bright and early in Kansas City, and one of the games that’s a bit more under the radar on Wednesday will take place between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones. The Bearcats struggled mightily for most of conference play due to their lack of production on offense. However, the Bearcats are trending up in that department lately, checking in as a top 40 offense over the past month per Barttorvik, a far cry from their season long number (97th in adjusted offensive efficiency). Bearcats guard Jizzle James is having a strong season, and I think his success can carry over against a Cyclones defense that while excellent, has shown a few cracks in the armor over the course of Big 12 play. Cincinnati is also shooting considerably better as well, and that positive regression could continue into this game against an Iowa State defense that is outside the top 200 in 3-point rate allowed over the last month.

There’s no doubt that Iowa State is one of the best teams in the Big 12 and should be a title contender when the NCAA Tournament rolls around next week. And while the Cyclones have had some inconsistent offensive performances against the likes of Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona and Kansas State over the last month, Iowa State has not been fully healthy for large chunks of the conference season. Even though Keshon Gilbert is a game-time decision for Wednesday, the return of Milan Momcilovic and Curtis Jones back in the lineup should do wonders for a Cyclones team that should be poised for an offensive explosion against a team they’ve already faced this season. Despite the fact that both teams play fairly slow, this isn’t exactly a high bar to clear in terms of scoring. It’s entirely possible that we see a 75-65 type of game, and I’ll back the over to start the day in Kansas City.

Cincinnati vs Iowa State prediction: Over 135.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 136.

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The SEC Tournament will commence on Wednesday afternoon with the 16 vs 9 matchup between South Carolina and Arkansas. The last time these teams met, the Gamecocks (12-19) absolutely embarrassed the Razorbacks (19-12) in Columbia. South Carolina led by as many as 35 points late in the 2nd half, holding Arkansas – which was without Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero –  to just 0.77 points per possession and 3/22 from 3-point range. The Razorbacks rebounded from the loss with back-to-back wins in which they scored at least 90 points, while the Gamecocks lost their final 2 games of the regular season and failed to surpass 65 points in either.

South Carolina was unreliable and inefficient away from home this season, winning just 2 games outside of the friendly confines of Colonial Life Arena. For what it’s worth, those 2 wins were against 2 of the worst teams in the ACC in Boston College and Virginia Tech, and they were way back in late November and early December. The Gamecocks have not won a single game away from home since then, and I have a hard time finding a reason to believe that will change on Wednesday. They average fewer than 65 points per game away from home and carry a 46.1% effective field goal percentage in those games, which is outside the top 300 nationally. Moreover, Arkansas will likely have motivation to show up for this game after its embarrassing effort at South Carolina on March 1st. The Razorbacks have the better back court in this matchup with Johnell Davis and DJ Wagner despite that loss just a couple weeks ago, which is enough for me to lean to the ‘Hogs in the SEC’s opening tournament game in Nashville.

South Carolina vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks -2.5 (-118) at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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The ACC tournament rolls on in Charlotte, North Carolina on Wednesday, and one of the marquee games of the day will feature the North Carolina Tar Heels taking on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. North Carolina is squarely on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment, but the Tar Heels are undoubtedly playing much better basketball of late. Since getting blown out by Clemson back on February 10, the Tar Heels have won 6 of their last 7 games, with the only loss coming in a hard-fought battle against Duke last Saturday. Hubert Davis’ team is probably happy they won’t be drawing Pittsburgh in this matchup, as the Tar Heels did lose to the Panthers in Pittsburgh and defeated them by just 1 point in Chapel Hill. While the situational spot is being taxed a bit given that North Carolina is in must-win mode, this is still a much more advantageous matchup for RJ Davis and company, and I expect a resounding victory for the Tar Heels on Wednesday.

Notre Dame may be running on fumes after playing a 4-overtime game on Saturday against Cal, especially since the Irish followed that game with an extremely narrow 1-point victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday. That game ended on a very controversial foul call, so it’s fair to suggest that the Irish probably got a bit fortunate to even be in this game in the first place. Now, Notre Dame will have to take on a North Carolina offense that is shooting well over 40% from beyond the arc over its last 7 games, and tallied over 80 points in each of its last 6 victories. It’s also worth pointing out that the Tar Heels will essentially be playing a home game given that the game is in Charlotte. Notre Dame’s defense is very poor at defending inside the arc and doesn’t force nearly enough turnovers to throw North Carolina’s offense out of rhythm, which is a major key to beating the Tar Heels. That doesn’t bode well for a game that should feature plenty of possessions with North Carolina’s frenetic style of play. If the Heels get an early lead it could be a long day for a weary Notre Dame team.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina -8 available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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We head to the second round of the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City with a Colorado Buffaloes vs West Virginia Mountaineers prediction. The Buffs had to win an opening-round game against TCU to get to this spot, and their season will end whenever they lose this week. West Virginia will play its first game of the tournament on Wednesday afternoon, and sometimes that can be a tricky spot. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi and the other experts have West Virginia safely into the field of 68, but I would feel much better about the Mountaineers if they get 1 more victory. I think this is a spot with a lot of pressure on the Mountaineers, and they may find themselves struggling to survive against a loose and carefree Colorado squad. I am going to take the points with the Buffs, with the line currently set at +6.5.

These teams met once in the regular season, a game that West Virginia won 78-70 in Boulder. The Buffaloes have gotten much better since then, for what it is worth, despite finishing last in the conference. They will need to continue their hot shooting if they want to win, but that is hard to do against the WVU defense. In particular, the Mountaineers are a top 10 team when it comes to defending the 3-point arc. Colorado will need to find a way to defy that metric. So why back the Buffs here? First, West Virginia struggles offensively — and tends to win in tight games. Second, WVU prefers a very slow, defensive grind of a game — and those kinds of games often lead us to the win-but-no-cover outcome. I also like that Colorado played already and got comfortable on that gawd-awful gym floor (seriously, what are we doing with the Roman numerals everywhere?!?!), and there is a chance West Virginia starts slow and has to grind this one out. Give me the underdogs with nothing to lose.

Colorado vs West Virginia prediction: Colorado +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The SEC is in the midst of one of the all-time great seasons for a college basketball conference, and its conference tournament gets underway on Wednesday with a showdown between the Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores. These are a pair of teams (and programs) heading in completely different directions at the moment, and while the spot would traditionally suggest that Texas is the right side in this game, I find it really hard to trust the Longhorns in a game of this magnitude. Texas is likely playing this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes on the line, and backing a Rodney Terry coached team in this situation has not proven to be a profitable endeavor during his Texas tenure.

The Longhorns have just 2 wins over their last 9 games, which includes a loss to Vanderbilt, a game that saw freshman phenom Tre Johnson shoot poorly from the field. Johnson is a tremendous talent, but the issue for Texas is the offense typically goes how he goes; as we saw last Saturday against Oklahoma. However, the Longhorns have still managed to lose plenty of games to NCAA Tournament-caliber teams even if Johnson explodes for 25 or 30+ points (see: a recent overtime loss to Arkansas). With that in mind, it’s hard not to back Vanderbilt in its backyard, where the Commodores are being priced at a bit of a discount seeing as this is neutral site game in name only. Vanderbilt’s offense is a top 20 unit in adjusted efficiency and the eye test certainly supports that, with the Commodores putting together impressive shooting performances against Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri in recent weeks. Texas’ defense is pretty average by Power 4 standards (and even a bit below average in the SEC), so I don’t expect the Longhorns to offer much resistance to Jason Edwards, AJ Hoggard and company in this matchup. If the Commodores are able to turn Texas over and get out and run a bit in transition, they should be able to control the tempo and dictate the pace of the game. Texas’ offense is very inconsistent in the halfcourt as well, so the fairly average Vanderbilt defense shouldn’t be at risk of allowing a massive offensive explosion in this one either. I’ll lay the short number with the favorite.

Texas vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to Vanderbilt -2.5

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