College Basketball Picks

Following an 80-68 loss at St. John’s on Saturday, the Villanova Wildcats (11-6) will hit the road again on Tuesday night when they travel to Cincinnati to play the Xavier Musketeers (10-7). The Wildcats struggled defensively on Saturday, as they allowed the ‘Johnnies to score 1.23 points per possession. St. John’s also got to the free throw line 22 more times and grabbed 16 more rebounds than Villanova. Xavier, on the other hand, comes into this game off a road win at DePaul. The win snapped another multi-game skid for the Musketeers, who are now 2-4 in conference play. 

Despite being the better team on paper, Villanova is not in a very profitable spot here. Playing on the road in consecutive games is not an easy feat in college basketball overall, much less the Big East  – especially when the team is an underdog in both games like the Wildcats are here. In fact, when both teams come into a Big East matchup following road games, road underdogs who were underdogs in their previous game are just 3-11 ATS in those spots over the last 3 seasons. I believe that trend will hold true on Tuesday night. Xavier has 2 of the best defenders in the Big East in Zach Freemantle and Dailyn Swain, both of whom can take turns on Eric Dixon – who hasn’t been able to piece together his entire game offensively in the last 2 outings. On the other side of the floor, the Musketeers excel in their perimeter shooting and getting to the free throw line – 2 areas in which Villanova struggles defensively. They should be able to score comfortably against a Villanova defense that is 9th out of 11 Big East teams in opposing 3-point rate and free throw rate. The Musketeers are shooting close to 39% from the perimeter and greater than 80% from the free throw line in conference play, which tells me Villanova’s free throw luck may run out here. For reference, Villanova’s conference opponents are shooting just 66.4% from the free throw line coming into this game. Given the fact that Xavier’s entire starting lineup makes more than 70% of its free throws, we could see another situation where the Wildcats’ inability to defend without fouling costs them the game like it did at St. John’s on Saturday. All things considered, give me the home team in a fired-up spot against a team playing its 2nd-consecutive game as a road underdog in conference. 

Villanova vs Xavier prediction: Xavier Musketeers -2.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -3. 

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This SEC showdown features two ranked teams in college basketball, with #4 Alabama (14-2) hosting #21 Ole Miss (14-2). Both squads are off to stellar starts, but they bring very different styles to the court. Alabama, led by head coach Nate Oats, thrives in an up-tempo, high-scoring environment. Ranked second in adjusted tempo, the Crimson Tide loves to push the pace and fire from deep, with nearly half of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Although their 32% three-point shooting isn’t elite, their offense is still ranked #2 in efficiency. Guard Mark Sears has been on fire, scoring 20+ points in four straight games, and transfer Chris Youngblood is starting to find his rhythm, adding another weapon to this potent offense.

Ole Miss, on the other hand, prefers to slow things down. With a defense anchored by Chris Beard’s coaching, the Rebels excel at disrupting opponents. They force turnovers on 22% of possessions and hold teams to just 29% shooting from three. However, their interior defense could be tested, as Alabama’s size and rebounding prowess present a challenge for Ole Miss’ smaller lineup. The key for Ole Miss will be dictating the pace, limiting Alabama’s transition opportunities, and forcing tough perimeter shots. For Alabama, their ability to handle Ole Miss’ defensive pressure and dominate the boards could be the deciding factor.

In Alabama’s three conference games thus far, the first half has gone under twice followed by  massive increases in scoring for the second half. The past four matchups between these two teams in Tuscaloosa have gone under. I’m leaning the first half to start slow once again in this one.

Ole Miss vs Alabama Prediction: 1st Half Under 78.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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We head to the Big East on Tuesday for our Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays prediction. These teams currently sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings. Providence hits the road riding a 2-game winning streak, but both games were at home, where the Friars are 8-2 on the season. As with most teams, it is a different story on the road, and playing at Creighton is no picnic. The Bluejays have only lost once at home this season, and that was to neighboring Nebraska. I look for Creighton to hold serve at home, and I am comfortable taking them to cover -9 inside their own gym.

I think the key to this game will be 3-point shooting. Both teams shoot the deep ball at a rapid clip, depending on the outside shot for much of their offense. For Providence, defending the arc has been a priority as well, and when they are successful, they are running people off the line and forcing low-percentage jumpers. Can they execute that plan in a tough road environment? I am not expecting so. Creighton will have at least the two most talented players on the floor, and that should be the difference. Laying 9 points feels about right for the better team playing at home. My Providence vs Creighton pick is for the Bluejays to cover.

Providence vs Creighton Prediction: Creighton -9 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Duke and Miami fans will be pouring into Cameron Indoor Stadium tonight as the Miami Hurricanes make their way north to visit the No.3 ranked Duke Blue Devils. Duke aims to stay hot against their ACC rival, and one big reason for Duke’s success this year is because of the freshman, Cooper Flagg. Flagg is coming off a season-best 42 point game on Saturday at home against Notre Dame, and fans are hoping for another breakout performance from the freshman as they face a Miami team that is giving up 76.3 points per game on average. Miami has struggled all year, and they’re a big underdog in this matchup, and rightfully so, but I think Duke will be able to cover this large spread and here’s why.  

Miami has not lost a game by more than 15 points all season. Earlier in the season, Miami played then No.1 Tennessee and lost by only 13 points, and Tennessee has one of the best defenses in all of college basketball. The Hurricanes have been decent offensively this season, shooting 47.2% from the field and scoring 77.5 points per game, but their defense is what has been their kryptonite all season.  Miami is giving up over 76 points per game this year, and I expect them to struggle big against Duke tonight.  Duke is averaging 80.4 points per game, shooting 47.8% from the field, and they’re allowing their opponents to show just 36.5% from the field giving up less than 60 points per game. Duke is one of the top teams right now in the country and they’re trying to make their case as to why they should be No.1 in the nation. This is a massive spread for conference play, and even though Miami’s biggest loss of the season was only by 15, I simply can’t trust the way they’re performing right now. Look for the Blue Devils to rally at home in front of their home crowd and win big against the Hurricanes, making them my best bet of the day. 

Miami vs Duke prediction: Duke -24 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tuesday night brings forth some exciting action across the SEC, notably when the Florida Gators host the Missouri Tigers at 9 PM at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center. The Gators are the #5 ranked team in the country, boasting a 15-1 record alongside a 2-1 mark in conference play. The lone loss for Florida came on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats, but they have since bounced back with a pair of wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. The Gators own an impressive 12-4 ATS record and have covered the spread in 6 of their 7 games against quality opponents. The Missouri Tigers are 8-8 ATS overall, but they have been equally as impressive against quality competition, owning a 5-1 ATS record against their toughest opponents. One glaring weakness expressed by the Tigers thus far has been their ability to win on the road, losing all 3 of their games that were either away or played at a neutral location.

That being said, the smart play is to lay the 10 points with the Gators on their home court on Tuesday night. Not only has Missouri underperformed away from home, but Florida has some significant advantages in this game and should be able to exploit the Tigers in numerous ways. One of the main keys to this game is going to come on the offensive glass, and the Gators have dominated that category all season long. Florida leads the nation with a +12.6 rebounding margin and they rank 3rd in offensive rebound percentage, giving them a significant upper hand in terms of second-chance points. Missouri can stay in this game considering they attempt 28.6 shots from the stripe per game, but Florida isn’t overly aggressive on defense, and they commit just 17.3 personal fouls per game. The number is large in this contest, but Florida should be able to pull away late in this game.

Missouri vs Florida Prediction: Florida -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Much of Arizona’s struggles relative to expectations in the nonconference portion of its schedule were due to close game variance. In fact, even as they were losing tight games to the likes of Oklahoma, West Virginia and UCLA, the metrics would still tell you that the Wildcats were a top 20 team in the nation and it appears that the numbers were ultimately correct. Arizona has rebounded nicely in conference play, having won 6 straight games dating back to December 18, and the Wildcats are firmly a contender in what is shaping up to be another very strong year for the Big 12. The backcourt duo of Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love seemed to have hit their stride, while Anthony Dell’Orso and KJ Lewis have been excellent in recent games. All of this sets up nicely for Tommy Lloyd’s team to put forth a strong effort on both sides of the ball on Tuesday, especially since the Wildcats are coming off a win over UCF where they appeared to be going through the motions following a long road trip.

On the other side, Baylor enters this game as winners of back-to-back contests. However, this is not an ideal spot for the Bears, having now been out west for nearly a week following a win over Arizona State last Saturday. The Bears are also dealing with a couple of key injuries in their rotation, as both Jalen Celestine and Langston Love are questionable for this game. Both of these players have already missed a couple of games due to these undisclosed injuries, and I’d be surprised if they were back in the lineup for Tuesday’s contest, especially with the opportunity to get back into the swing of things in Waco against lesser competition on the horizon. Baylor’s offense has needed its best players to log big minutes in recent games, including in that overtime win in Tempe, which could come back to bite them in a game against an Arizona team that loves to play with pace (50th in adjusted tempo) and wear down its opponent. Scott Drew’s team is one that I’ll be interested in backing once they get fully healthy, but for now, I can’t do anything but fade the Bears in this spot. Let’s lay the points with the Wildcats.

Baylor vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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