UCF Knights vs West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/23/24

Despite having the 2nd-ranked rushing attack in FBS, the UCF Knights enter their matchup against West Virginia losing 6 of their last 7 games with the only win coming against a bottom-of-the-barrel Arizona squad. The primary reason for this being an unreliable, inconsistent defensive unit that simply can’t stop the pass. The Knights rank 92nd in defensive passing efficiency allowed and 96th in total passing yards allowed per game. They have struggled to pressure the QB all season, ranking 91st in total sacks, and have especially struggled to end drives, ranking 112th in 3rd/4th down success rate defensively. However you spin it, the Knights’ defense isn’t one to write home about and the Mountaineers’ quality passing attack should present the visitors with problems.

West Virginia ranks 21st in EPA/dropback and has been rather efficient offensively as a whole, ranking 34th in net points per drive. I expect West Virginia to attack ICF’s secondary early and often in this one which will open up scrambling opportunities for QB Garrett Greene who had 129 yards on the ground last time out. West Virginia’s defense hasn’t exactly been stellar, but the Mountaineers’ are much stronger against the run ranking 47th in EPA/rush which is essentially the only way UCF can move the ball consistently. With all things considered, I’ll back the underdogs to cover at home in this matchup.

West Virginia +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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