Fresno State Bulldogs vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/28/24

There are a couple of massive games involving Group of 5 teams in Week 5, and one of the most important contests is a duel in the Mountain West between the Fresno State Bulldogs and UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas. Both of these teams are certainly contenders to challenge Boise State for the Mountain West title, and this game sets up to be a fantastic, back-and-forth affair. With that said, the Rebels are a bit overvalued in this game due to their previous results this season.

UNLV has already knocked off a pair of Big 12 teams in Houston and Kansas, giving the Rebels two of the more impressive nonconference wins for a Group of 5 team this season. While the win over the Cougars was certainly legitimate, UNLV probably should’ve lost to Kansas upon further examination. After all, Kansas outgained the Rebels by nearly 100 yards and the Jayhawks also lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a game where they averaged 6 yards per play. On the other side, Fresno State was able to put up a real fight in the Big House against Michigan in Week 1 and the Bulldogs absolutely deserved to cover the number in that game. Since that point, the Bulldogs have won 3 consecutive games in convincing fashion and enter this game with a 3-1 record against the spread. Mikey Keene has been efficient of late, tossing 3 touchdowns and not turning the ball over in the last couple of games. If he can avoid the turnovers on Saturday, the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball through the air in this one. 

Despite losing head coach Jeff Tedford to retirement over the summer, the Fresno State program is as strong as ever. This is still a fundamentally sound football team with one of the best defenses in the Group of 5 (12th in net points per drive, 12th in 3rd down success rate), and they should force UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka into making similar mistakes that he did against Kansas. In that game, Sluka got away with a number of turnover worthy throws and even a couple of would-be costly fumbles that were recovered by his teammates on offense. Unlike their previous opponents, however, this Bulldogs team will make UNLV pay for those mistakes. This is a game that should come down to the final couple of possessions, so I’ll gladly take the underdog against a team that is getting a lot of credit in the market for just one result. Let’s take Fresno State +4.5 as my prediction for this game.

Fresno State vs UNLV prediction: Fresno State +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5

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