MLB Picks

The Red Sox and Guardians square up again for a midweek series that begins on Tuesday. These teams met in Boston a week ago, with Cleveland taking 2 of 3. Both swept their weekend series, the Red Sox at Pittsburgh and Cleveland over Oakland. The chances of rain on Tuesday are 100% in Cleveland, so there are going to be some weather concerns with this one — but if they play, I like the Red Sox. There is little doubt that the Guards are the better team right now, but I like that Boston is set to get Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill back on Tuesday — or at least that is the hope for both of them. With those guys back, I like the Sox on the money line.

As far as pitching goes, we have Ben Lively and Tanner Houck facing off. Lively is nothing special, although Cleveland tends to get the most out of its pitchers. Houck has been an ace so far this season, and while the Guards do not strike out very much, Houck should induce weak contact and give his team a strong start. I am always worried about the Boston defense (the Sox are bad with the leather) and I never trust Kenley Jansen (lots of personal trauma with him blowing saves on days I bet on his team), but I still think the Red Sox are in a favorable position on Tuesday. If, however, Devers and O’Neill are not back in the lineup, I will likely sit this game out. With them I am riding the Sox.

Red Sox ML at -115 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Phillies extended their winning streak to 7 games with a 7-0 win at Cincinnati last night. When you look closely, you see that 6 of those wins came the Rockies and the White Sox — 2 of the worst teams in the league — but that is how you are are supposed to do it when you are a good team. The Phillies are tops in the majors in quality starts, which is a good platform for sustained success. Cincinnati has been solid to start the season, as well. The Reds were on a 3-game winning streak until losing yesterday, and they are getting a variety of contributions form their young core. The electric Elly De La Cruz is leading the majors in steals with 11. He is still missing pitches but also hitting close to .300. Anytime he is on first, look out. 

Lefty Christopher Sanchez is just 1-2 but has pitched well for the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer and is striking out more than a batter per inning. All of his numbers are better than they were a year ago. Fellow lefty Andrew Abbott is 1-2 also, and like Sanchez he has pitched well this season even though his record does not show it. His stuff might not be as good as Nick Lodolo’s or Hunter Greene’s, but you can see progress. 

I like both of these teams, so to be honest I might have gone with whichever side had the better payoff. That is even easier when you back a home team with an explosive offense, although I think this one might be more of a pitchers’ duel. That is even more reason to like the Reds. They can get their speedster on an manufacture some runs to get the win. 

Reds ML at +105 available at time publishing. Playable to +100.

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The bats have been quiet for both the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays to start the 2024 season. That trend seems likely to continue Tuesday night as the 2 clubs open a 3-game series at Tropicana Field. Detroit will send Kenta Maeda (0-1, 7.64 ERA) to the mound looking to build off his last start. The veteran righty tossed 6.0 solid innings against Texas, allowing just 1 earned run despite giving up 7 hits. Maeda has been plagued by the long-ball so far, serving up 7 homers in only 17.2 frames.

The Rays will counter with hard-throwing Ryan Pepiot (2-2, 4.37 ERA). The young right-hander has rounded into form nicely, posting a 2.65 ERA over his last 3 outings while racking up 24 strikeouts against only 4 walks in 17.0 innings. Offensively, both clubs have scuffled with runners in scoring position. The Tigers rank 20th in MLB with a .675 OPS in those situations, while Tampa Bay checks in at 19th (.679 OPS). With 2 of the better bullpens taking the field, as well, this shapes up as a pitching duel. Detroit’s 1.65 relief ERA leads the majors, while Tampa Bay’s 5.34 mark ranks 27th. I’m backing the arms and taking under 8 runs in what projects as a low-scoring contest.

Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Houston Astros have been extremely disappointing this season, falling to 7-16 following another series loss to the Washington Nationals. Houston has only won 2 series so far and the pitching staff’s struggles are a major reason why. Granted, injuries to guys like Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr and now Framber Valdez has left their rotation thin, but the bullpen has also been struggling for Houston. This is not what the team envisioned when signing Josh Hader in the offseason, as the Astros anticipated having the best trio of backend relievers in the sport. Still, their ‘pen ranks just 28th in ERA as a collective unit. That has put pressure on their highly paid lineup to carry the load, but without pitching it is hard to win at this level. J.P. France is someone I often fade, as he carries an Astros-worthy price while being a replacement-level arm talent wise. 

Jordan Wicks will start for the Cubs, as the 24-year-old left-hander looks to make his 5th start of the season. A 5.29 ERA doesn’t jump off the board in a positive way, but his 3.09 FIP suggests positive regression may be on its way. Wicks has been tasked with a difficult schedule to begin 2024, facing the Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners and Diamondbacks in his first 4 outings. Each of those teams have playoff hopes and beyond, but Wicks has at least competed and shown swing-and-miss potential. Houston hits left-handed pitching very well so it will be interesting to see how Wicks performs, but I do lean toward a Cubs win in this matchup.

Cubs ML at -105 available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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While Houston has a poor record, its offense is still well equipped to perform against southpaw pitching. The Astros’ lineup construction better suits them to face lefties, and their numbers have been impressive — ranking 4th in wOBA while maintaining a wRC+ of 134. Wicks is a young arm who could get hit around in the wrong matchup. Houston also benefits offensively as the road team, given that it gets all 9 innings to bat regardless of score. This should help contribute to the game total going over. Cubs relievers rank just middle of the pack in ERA allowed so far, and despite having Monday off closer Adbert Alzolay could be unavailable after having thrown Saturday and Sunday.

The Cubs’ offense remains without Seiya Suzuki in a prime batting position due to injury, but they remain a quality lineup with numerous pieces that are able to do damage. France is someone who allows a ton of fly balls, and with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for this game that is bad news. The total for this game is set at 10 — pretty telling for which way the wind is blowing, as Wrigley is one of the more wind-receptive ballparks in the sport. Long flyouts could turn into multi-run bombs with a bit of extra help from the elements. I like the over in this matchup.

Over 10 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Seattle Mariners have showcased some of the league’s top pitching this season, averaging an impressive 9.21 strikeouts and 2.15 walks per game. Their pitching staff ranks 8th in the league with an ERA of 3.48, having struck out 201 batters and have given up 165 hits across 196.1 innings. In contrast, the Texas Rangers struggle in this department — ranking 22nd with an ERA of 4.19. They have allowed 169 hits over 202.0 innings while tallying 179 strikeouts. As the Mariners visit Texas, they will rely on their starters to set the tone — providing opportunities for their offense to capitalize on Dunning in today’s matchup. Seattle’s batting performance ranks 22nd in the league with a .229 average and a .665 OPS, while Texas boasts a more potent offense — ranking 7th with a .256 average and a .720 OPS.

Logan Gilbert will take the mound today for Seattle and he is 1-0 this season with a 2.33 ERA. Gilbert is coming off a solid outing against the Reds in which he threw 6.2 innings, struck out 6 and gave up only one earned run. Meanwhile, the Rangers turn to Dane Dunning — who holds a 2-1 record with a 3.91 ERA. In his last start against Detroit, Dunning threw 5.0 innings while allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 5. Seattle enters the game as one of the hotter teams, winning 5 of its last 6 matchups and outscoring opponents 35 to 9. Despite the Rangers’ potent lineup, in today’s matchup the Mariners hold a slight advantage on the mound with Gilbert and I expect them to score enough runs to steal one from Texas on the road.  

Mariners ML at -110 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Baltimore is currently one of the hottest teams in the MLB, leading the AL East ahead of the Yankees. The Orioles continued their winning streak with a solid 4-2 victory last night, handing Detmers his first loss of the season. Baltimore has won 7 of its last 8 and today aims to maintain momentum with Grayson Rodriguez taking the mound. Rodriguez boasts an impressive 3-0 record this year with a 2.63 ERA, having struck out 27 batters in 24.0 innings pitched.

On the other side, the Angels will rely on Griffin Canning — who is still in search of his first win this season. Canning holds a rough 0-3 record with an 8.05 ERA and is set to face one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball. Baltimore ranks 4th in the league in hitting, boasting a .261 batting average with a .780 OPS. Meanwhile, the Angels sit at 18th in the league with a .237 average and a .674 OPS. While Rodriguez has been dominant, he will need to be cautious against 1 player in the Angels lineup: Mike Trout.  Trout has hit all 8 home runs against right-handed pitchers this year and Rodriguez has already given up 3 long-balls in 24.0 innings pitched this year.  

With Rodriguez’s varied pitching arsenal and a curveball that keeps batters guessing, this Angels lineup shouldn’t be too much of a threat. Look for the Orioles to capitalize on Canning early in the game and Rodriguez to do enough on the mound to shut down a weak-hitting Angels lineup.  

Orioles ML at -155 available at the time of publishing. Playable to -165.

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Logan Webb is simply a different animal when pitching in his home park. The right-hander has performed better at home for his entire career, and this has continued this season with 14 innings of 2-run ball against the Padres and Diamondbacks. He isn’t generating many swing-and-miss opportunities at the moment, which is a bit concerning for his season-long strikeout output — but Webb is still generating a healthy number of ground-ball outs with his sinker and changeup combo. He draws a Mets offense this time around that ranks 11th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, but they will be without Francisco Alvarez due to a thumb injury. With 15, 14 and 14 ground-ball outs in his last 3 starts, Webb’s current form should be enough to get past this Mets lineup.

Luis Severino will start for New York, making his 5th start of the season since becoming a Met in the offseason. His first 4 outings have gone extremely well, allowing only 5 earned runs through 21.0 innings of work. That includes 3 straight very good outings against the Reds, Royals and Pirates. He now gets a Giants offense that has been very inconsistent to start this season. They sit just behind the Mets in terms of wOBA against RHP, 12th in that metric so far. Severino should be able to keep them in check during the early innings, especially considering the pitcher-friendly park he will be in for this game. I lean toward the under in this matchup.

Under 7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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